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- Path: senator-bedfellow.mit.edu!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!boulder!spot.colorado.edu!rparson
- From: rparson@spot.colorado.edu (Robert Parson)
- Newsgroups: sci.environment,sci.answers,news.answers
- Subject: Ozone Depletion FAQ Part I: Introduction to the Ozone Layer
- Followup-To: poster
- Date: 24 Dec 1997 20:49:01 GMT
- Organization: University of Colorado, Boulder
- Lines: 1411
- Approved: news-answers-request@MIT.Edu
- Expires: Sun, 1 Feb 1998 00:00:00 GMT
- Message-ID: <67rsft$2ue@peabody.colorado.edu>
- Reply-To: rparson@spot.colorado.edu
- NNTP-Posting-Host: spot.colorado.edu
- NNTP-Posting-User: rparson
- Summary: This is the first of four files dealing with stratospheric
- ozone depletion. It provides scientific background for
- the more detailed questions in the other three parts.
- Keywords: ozone layer cfc stratosphere depletion
- Originator: rparson@spot.colorado.edu
- Xref: senator-bedfellow.mit.edu sci.environment:158517 sci.answers:7559 news.answers:119775
-
- Archive-name: ozone-depletion/intro
- Last-modified: 20 Dec 1997
- Version: 5.9
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: How to get this FAQ
-
- These files are posted to the newsgroups sci.environment, sci.answers,
- and news.answers. They are also archived at a variety of sites. These
- archives work by automatically downloading the faqs from the newsgroups
- and reformatting them in site-specific ways. They usually update to
- the latest version within a few days of its being posted, although in
- the past there have been some lapses; if the "Last-Modified" date in
- the FAQ seems old, you may want to see if there is a more recent version
- in a different archive.
-
- Many individuals have archived copies on their own servers, but these
- are often seriously out of date and in general are not recommended.
-
- A. World-Wide Web
- (Limited) hypertext versions, with embedded links to some of the on-line
- resources cited in the faqs, can be found at:
-
- http://www.faqs.org/faqs/ozone-depletion/
- http://www.cis.ohio-state.edu/hypertext/faq/usenet/ozone-depletion/top.html
- http://www.lib.ox.ac.uk/internet/news/faq/sci.environment.html
- http://www.cs.ruu.nl/wais/html/na-dir/ozone-depletion/.html
-
- Plaintext versions can be found at:
-
- ftp://rtfm.mit.edu/pub/usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/
- ftp://ftp.uu.net/usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/
-
- ----
- B. Anonymous ftp
-
- To rtfm.mit.edu, in the directory /pub/usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion
- To ftp.uu.net, in the directory /usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion
- Look for the four files named intro, stratcl, antarctic, and uv.
-
- ----
- C. Regular email
- Send the following messages to mail-server@rtfm.mit.edu:
-
- send usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/intro
- send usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/stratcl
- send usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/antarctic
- send usenet/news.answers/ozone-depletion/uv
-
- Leave the subject line blank.
- If you want to find out more about the mail server, send a
- message to it containing the word "help".
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Copyright Statement
-
- ***********************************************************************
- * Copyright 1997 Robert Parson *
- * *
- * This file may be distributed, copied, and archived. All such copies *
- * must include this notice, the preceding instructions on how *
- * to obtain a current version, and the paragraph below entitled *
- * "Caveat." If this document is transmitted to other networks or *
- * stored on an electronic archive, I ask that you inform me. I also *
- * ask you to keep your archive up to date; in the case of world-wide *
- * web pages, this is most easily done by linking to one of the *
- * archives listed above instead of storing local copies. Finally, I *
- * request that you inform me before including any of this information *
- * in any publications of your own. Students should note that this *
- * is _not_ a peer-reviewed publication and may not be acceptable as *
- * a reference for school projects; it should instead be used as a *
- * pointer to the published literature. In particular, all scientific *
- * data, numerical estimates, etc. should be accompanied by a citation *
- * to the original published source, not to this document. *
- ***********************************************************************
-
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: General remarks
-
- This is the first of four FAQ files dealing with stratospheric ozone
- depletion. This part deals with basic scientific questions about the
- ozone layer, and serves as an introduction to the remaining parts which
- are more specialized. Part II deals with sources of stratospheric
- chlorine and bromine, part III with the Antarctic Ozone Hole, and Part
- IV with the properties and effects of ultraviolet radiation. The later
- parts are mostly independent of each other, but they all refer back.
- to Part I. I emphasize physical and chemical mechanisms
- rather than biological effects, although I make a few remarks about
- the latter in part IV. I have little to say about legal and policy
- issues other than a very brief summary at the end of part I.
-
- The overall approach I take is conservative. I concentrate on what
- is known and on most probable, rather than worst-case, scenarios.
- For example, I have relatively little to say about the effects
- of UV radiation on terrestrial plants - this does not mean that the
- effects are small, it means that they are as yet not well
- quantified (and moreover, I am not well qualified to interpret the
- literature.) Policy decisions must take into account not only the
- most probable scenario, but also a range of less probable ones.
- There have been surprises, mostly unpleasant, in this field in the
- past, and there are sure to be more in the future.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Caveats, Disclaimers, and Contact Information
-
- | _Caveat_: I am not a specialist. In fact, I am not an atmospheric
- | chemist at all - I am a physical chemist studying gas-phase
- | reactions who talks to atmospheric chemists. These files are an
- | outgrowth of my own efforts to educate myself about this subject
- | I have discussed some of these issues with specialists but I am
- | solely responsible for everything written here, including all errors.
- | On the other hand, if you find this document in an online archive
- | somewhere, I am not responsible for any *other* information that
- | may happen to reside in that archive. This document should not be
- | cited in publications off the net; rather, it should be used as a
- | pointer to the published literature.
-
- *** Corrections and comments are welcomed.
-
- - Robert Parson
- Associate Professor
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry
- University of Colorado (for which I do not speak)
-
- rparson@spot.colorado.edu
- Robert.Parson@colorado.edu
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Dedication
-
- This FAQ is dedicated to the memory of Carl J. Lydick, who was one of
- the first people to read it through carefully and who helped me to clarify
- my presentation. Carl was not a scientist, but he had a profound
- understanding of and love for science and an outstanding talent for
- presenting scientific results in non-technical language.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: TABLE OF CONTENTS
-
- How to get this FAQ
- Copyright Statement
- General remarks
- Caveats, Disclaimers, and Contact Information
- TABLE OF CONTENTS
-
- 1. THE STRATOSPHERE
- 1.1) What is the stratosphere?
- 1.2) How is the composition of air described?
- 1.3) How does the composition of the atmosphere change with
-
- 2. THE OZONE LAYER
- 2.1) How is ozone created?
- 2.2) How much ozone is in the layer, and what is a
- 2.3) How is ozone distributed in the stratosphere?
- 2.4) How does the ozone layer work?
- 2.5) What sorts of natural variations does the ozone layer show?
- 2.5.a) Regional and Seasonal Variation
- 2.5.b) Year-to-year variations.
- 2.6) What are CFC's?
- 2.7) How do CFC's destroy ozone?
- 2.8) What is an "Ozone Depletion Potential?"
- 2.9) What about HCFC's and HFC's? Do they destroy ozone?
- 2.10) *IS* the ozone layer getting thinner?
- 2.11) Is the middle-latitude ozone loss due to CFC emissions?
- 2.12) If the ozone is lost, won't the UV light just penetrate
- 2.13) Do Space Shuttle launches damage the ozone layer?
- 2.14) Will commercial supersonic aircraft damage the ozone layer?
- 2.15) What is being done about ozone depletion?
-
- 3. REFERENCES FOR PART I
- Introductory Reading
- Books and Review Articles
- More Specialized References
- Internet Resources
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 1. THE STRATOSPHERE
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 1.1) What is the stratosphere?
-
- The stratosphere extends from about 15 km to 50 km. In the
- stratosphere temperature _increases_ with altitude, due to the
- absorption of UV light by oxygen and ozone. This creates a global
- "inversion layer" which impedes vertical motion into and within
- the stratosphere - since warmer air lies above colder air, convection
- is inhibited. The word "stratosphere" is related to the word
- "stratification" or layering.
-
- The stratosphere is often compared to the "troposphere", which is
- the atmosphere below about 15 km. The boundary - called the
- "tropopause" - between these regions is quite sharp, but its
- precise location varies between ~9 and ~18 km, depending upon
- latitude and season. The prefix "tropo" refers to change: the
- troposphere is the part of the atmosphere in which weather occurs.
- This results in rapid mixing of tropospheric air.
- [Wayne] [Wallace and Hobbs]
-
- Above the stratosphere lie the "mesosphere", ranging from ~50 to
- ~100 km, in which temperature decreases with altitude; the
- "thermosphere", ~100-400 km, in which temperature increases
- with altitude again, and the "exosphere", beyond ~400 km, which
- fades into the background of interplanetary space. In the upper
- mesosphere and thermosphere electrons and ions are abundant, so
- these regions are also referred to as the "ionosphere". In technical
- literature the term "lower atmosphere" is synonymous with the
- troposphere, "middle atmosphere" refers to the stratosphere
- and mesosphere, while "upper atmosphere" is usually reserved for the
- thermosphere and exosphere. This usage is not universal, however,
- and one occasionally sees the term "upper atmosphere" used to
- describe everything above the troposphere (for example, in NASA's
- Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, UARS.)
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 1.2) How is the composition of air described?
- (Or, what is a 'mixing ratio'?)
-
- The density of the air in the atmosphere depends upon altitude, and
- in a complicated way because the temperature also varies with
- altitude. It is therefore awkward to report concentrations of
- atmospheric species in units like g/cc or molecules/cc. Instead,
- it is convenient to report the "mole fraction", the relative
- number of molecules of a given type in an air sample. Atmospheric
- scientists usually call a mole fraction a "mixing ratio". Typical
- units for mixing ratios are parts-per-million, billion, or
- trillion by volume, designated as "ppmv", "ppbv", and "pptv"
- respectively. (The expression "by volume" reflects Avogadro's Law -
- for an ideal gas mixture, equal volumes contain equal numbers of
- molecules - and serves to distinguish mixing ratios from "mass
- fractions" which are given as parts-per-million by weight.) Thus
- when someone says the mixing ratio of hydrogen chloride at 3 km
- is 0.1 ppbv, he means that 1 out of every 10 billion molecules in
- an air sample collected at that altitude will be an HCl molecule.
- [Wayne] [Graedel and Crutzen]
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 1.3) How does the composition of the atmosphere change with
- altitude? (Or, how can CFC's get up to the stratosphere
- when they are heavier than air?)
-
- In the earth's troposphere and stratosphere, most _stable_ chemical
- species are "well-mixed" - their mixing ratios are independent of
- altitude. If a species' mixing ratio changes with altitude, some
- kind of physical or chemical transformation is taking place. That
- last statement may seem surprising - one might expect the heavier
- molecules to dominate at lower altitudes. The mixing ratio of
- Krypton (mass 84), then, would decrease with altitude, while that
- of Helium (mass 4) would increase. In reality, however, molecules
- do not segregate by weight in the troposphere or stratosphere.
- The relative proportions of Helium, Nitrogen, and Krypton are
- unchanged up to about 100 km.
-
- Why is this? Vertical transport in the troposphere takes place by
- convection and turbulent mixing. In the stratosphere and in the
- mesosphere, it takes place by "eddy diffusion" - the gradual mechanical
- mixing of gas by motions on small scales. These mechanisms do not
- distinguish molecular masses. Only at much higher altitudes do mean
- free paths become so large that _molecular_ diffusion dominates and
- gravity is able to separate the different species, bringing hydrogen
- and helium atoms to the top. The lower and middle atmosphere are thus
- said to be "well mixed."
- [Chamberlain and Hunten] [Wayne] [Wallace and Hobbs]
-
- Experimental measurements of the fluorocarbon CF4 demonstrate this
- homogeneous mixing. CF4 has an extremely long lifetime in the
- stratosphere - probably many thousands of years. The mixing ratio
- of CF4 in the stratosphere was found to be 0.056-0.060 ppbv
- from 10-50 km, with no overall trend. [Zander et al. 1992]
-
- An important trace gas that is *not* well-mixed is water vapor. The
- lower troposphere contains a great deal of water - as much as 30,000
- ppmv in humid tropical latitudes. High in the troposphere, however,
- the water condenses and falls to the earth as rain or snow, so that
- the stratosphere is extremely dry, typical mixing ratios being about
- 5 ppmv. Indeed, the transport of water vapor from troposphere to
- stratosphere is even less efficient than this would suggest, since
- much of the small amount of water in the stratosphere is actually
- produced _in situ_ by the oxidation of stratospheric methane. [SAGE II]
-
- Sometimes that part of the atmosphere in which the chemical
- composition of stable species does not change with altitude is
- called the "homosphere". The homosphere includes the troposphere,
- stratosphere, and mesosphere. The upper regions of the atmosphere
- - the "thermosphere" and the "exosphere" - are then referred to as
- the "heterosphere". [Wayne] [Wallace and Hobbs]
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2. THE OZONE LAYER
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.1) How is ozone created?
-
- Ozone is formed naturally in the upper stratosphere by short
- wavelength ultraviolet radiation. Wavelengths less than ~240
- nanometers are absorbed by oxygen molecules (O2), which dissociate to
- give O atoms. The O atoms combine with other oxygen molecules to
- make ozone:
-
- O2 + hv -> O + O (wavelength < 240 nm)
- O + O2 -> O3
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.2) How much ozone is in the layer, and what is a
- "Dobson Unit" ?
-
- A Dobson Unit (DU) is a convenient scale for measuring the total
- amount of ozone occupying a column overhead. If the ozone layer
- over the US were compressed to 0 degrees Celsius and 1 atmosphere
- pressure, it would be about 3 mm thick. So, 0.01 mm thickness at
- 0 C and 1 at is defined to be 1 DU; this makes the average thickness
- of the ozone layer over the US come out to be about 300 DU.
- In absolute terms, 1 DU is about 2.7 x 10^16 molecules/cm^2.
-
- The unit is named after G.M.B. Dobson, who carried out pioneering
- studies of atmospheric ozone between ~1920-1960. Dobson designed
- the standard instrument used to measure ozone from the ground. The
- Dobson spectrophotometer measures the intensity solar UV radiation at
- four wavelengths, two of which are absorbed by ozone and two of
- which are not [Dobson 1968b]. These instruments are still in use
- in many places, although they are gradually being replaced by the more
- elaborate Brewer spectrophotometers. Today ozone is measured in many
- ways, from aircraft, balloons, satellites, and space shuttle missions,
- but the worldwide Dobson network is the only source of long-term data.
- A station at Arosa in Switzerland has been measuring ozone since the
- 1920's (see http://www.umnw.ethz.ch/LAPETH/doc/totozon.html)
- and some other stations have records that go back nearly as
- long, although many were interrupted during World War II. The
- present worldwide network went into operation in 1956-57.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.3) How is ozone distributed in the stratosphere?
-
- In absolute terms: about 10^12 molecules/cm^3 at 15 km, rising to
- nearly 10^13 at 25 km, then falling to 10^11 at 45 km.
-
- In relative terms: ~0.5 parts per million by volume (ppmv) at 15 km,
- rising to ~8 ppmv at ~35 km, falling to ~3 ppmv at 45 km.
-
- Even in the thickest part of the layer, ozone is a trace gas. In all,
- there are about 3 billion metric tons, or 3x10^15 grams, of ozone in
- the earth's atmosphere; about 90% of this is in the stratosphere.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.4) How does the ozone layer work?
-
- UV light with wavelengths between 240 and 320 nm is absorbed by
- ozone, which then falls apart to give an O atom and an O2 molecule.
- The O atom soon encounters another O2 molecule, however (at all times,
- the concentration of O2 far exceeds that of O3), and recreates O3:
-
- O3 + hv -> O2 + O
- O + O2 -> O3
-
- Thus _ozone absorbs UV radiation without itself being consumed_;
- the net result is to convert UV light into heat. Indeed, this is
- what causes the temperature of the stratosphere to increase with
- altitude, giving rise to the inversion layer that traps molecules in
- the troposphere. The ozone layer isn't just _in_ the stratosphere; the
- ozone layer actually determines the form of the stratosphere.
-
- Ozone _is_ destroyed if an O atom and an O3 molecule meet:
-
- O + O3 -> 2 O2 ("recombination").
-
- This reaction is slow, however, and if it were the only mechanism
- for ozone loss, the ozone layer would be about twice as thick
- as it is. Certain trace species, such as the oxides of Nitrogen (NO
- and NO2), Hydrogen (H, OH, and HO2) and chlorine (Cl, ClO and ClO2)
- can catalyze the recombination. The present ozone layer is a
- result of a competition between photolysis and recombination;
- increasing the recombination rate, by increasing the
- concentration of catalysts, results in a thinner ozone layer.
-
- Putting the pieces together, we have the set of reactions proposed
- in the 1930's by Sidney Chapman:
-
- O2 + hv -> O + O (wavelength < 240 nm) : creation of oxygen atoms
- O + O2 -> O3 : formation of ozone
- O3 + hv -> O2 + O (wavelength < 320 nm) : absorption of UV by ozone
- O + O3 -> 2 O2 : recombination .
-
- Since the photolysis of O2 requires UV radiation while
- recombination does not, one might guess that ozone should increase
- during the day and decrease at night. This has led some people to
- suggest that the "antarctic ozone hole" is merely a result of the
- long antarctic winter nights. This inference is incorrect, because
- the recombination reaction requires oxygen atoms which are also
- produced by photolysis. Throughout the stratosphere the concentration
- of O atoms is orders of magnitude smaller than the concentration of
- O3 molecules, so both the production and the destruction of ozone by
- the above mechanisms shut down at night. In fact, the thickness of the
- ozone layer varies very little from day to night, and above 70 km
- ozone concentrations actually _increase_ at night.
-
- (The unusual catalytic cycles that operate in the antarctic ozone
- hole do not require O atoms; however, they still require light to
- operate because they also include photolytic steps. See Part III.)
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.5) What sorts of natural variations does the ozone layer show?
-
- There are substantial variations from place to place, and from
- season to season. There are smaller variations on time scales of
- years and more. [Wayne] [Rowland 1991] We discuss these in turn.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.5.a) Regional and Seasonal Variation
-
- Since solar radiation makes ozone, one expects to see the
- thickness of the ozone layer vary during the year. This is so,
- although the details do not depend simply upon the amount of solar
- radiation received at a given latitude and season - one must also
- take atmospheric motions into account. (Remember that
- both production and destruction of ozone require solar radiation.)
-
- The ozone layer is thinnest in the tropics, about 260 DU, almost
- independent of season. Away from the tropics seasonal variations
- become important. For example:
-
- Location Column thickness, Dobson Units
-
- Jan Apr Jul Oct
-
- Huancayo, Peru (12 degrees S) : 255 255 260 260
- Aspendale, Australia (38 deg. S): 300 280 335 360
- Arosa, Switzerland (47 deg. N): 335 375 320 280
- St. Petersburg, Russia (60 deg. N): 360 425 345 300
-
- These are monthly averages. Interannual standard deviations amount
- to ~5 DU for Huancayo, 25 DU for St. Petersburg. [Rowland 1991].
- Day-to-day fluctuations can be quite large (as much as 60 DU at high
- latitudes). Notice that the highest ozone levels are found in the
- _spring_, not, as one might guess, in summer, and the lowest in the
- fall, not winter. Indeed, at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere
- there is more ozone in January than in July! Most of the ozone is
- created over the tropics, and then is carried to higher latitudes
- by prevailing winds (the general circulation of the stratosphere.)
- [Dobson 1968a] [Garcia] [Salby and Garcia] [Brasseur and Solomon]
-
- The antarctic ozone hole, discussed in detail in Part III, falls
- far outside this range of natural variation. Mean October ozone
- at Halley Bay on the Antarctic coast was 117 DU in 1993, down
- from 321 DU in 1956.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.5.b) Year-to-year variations.
-
- Since ozone is created by solar UV radiation, one expects to see
- some correlation with the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Higher
- sunspot activity corresponds to more solar UV and hence more rapid
- ozone production. This correlation has been verified, although
- its effect is small, about 2% from peak to trough averaged over the
- earth, about 4% in polar regions. [Stolarski et al.]
-
- Another natural cycle is connected with the "quasibiennial
- oscillation", in which tropical winds in the lower stratosphere
- switch from easterly to westerly with a period of about two years.
- This leads to variations of the order of 3% at a given latitude,
- although the effect tends to cancel when one averages over the
- entire globe.
-
- Episodes of unusual solar activity ("solar proton events") can also
- influence ozone levels, by producing nitrogen oxides in the upper
- stratosphere and mesosphere. This can have a marked, though
- short-lived, effect on ozone _concentrations_ at very high altitudes,
- but the effect on total column ozone is usually small since most of
- the ozone is found in the lower and middle stratosphere. Ozone can
- also be depleted by a major volcanic eruption, such as El Chichon in
- 1982 or Pinatubo in 1991. The principal mechanism for this is _not_
- injection of chlorine into the stratosphere, as discussed in Part II,
- but rather the injection of sulfate aerosols which change the
- radiation balance in the stratosphere by scattering light, and which
- convert inactive chlorine compounds to active, ozone-destroying forms.
- [McCormick et al. 1995]. This too is a transient effect, lasting 2-3 years.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.6) What are CFC's?
-
- CFC's - ChloroFluoroCarbons - are a class of volatile organic compounds
- that have been used as refrigerants, aerosol propellants, foam blowing
- agents, and as solvents in the electronic industry. They are chemically
- very unreactive, and hence safe to work with. In fact, they are so inert
- that the natural reagents that remove most atmospheric pollutants do not
- react with them, so after many years they drift up to the stratosphere
- where short-wave UV light dissociates them. CFC's were invented in 1928,
- but only came into large-scale production after ~1950. Since that year,
- the total amount of chlorine in the stratosphere has increased by
- a factor of 4. [Solomon]
-
- The most important CFC's for ozone depletion are:
-
- Trichlorofluoromethane, CFCl3 (usually called CFC-11 or R-11);
- Dichlorodifluoromethane, CF2Cl2 (CFC-12 or R-12); and
- 1,1,2 Trichlorotrifluoroethane, CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113 or R-113).
-
- "R" stands for "refrigerant". One occasionally sees CFC-12 referred
- to as "F-12", and so forth; the"F" stands for "Freon", DuPont's trade
- name for these compounds.
-
- In discussing ozone depletion, "CFC" is occasionally used to
- describe a somewhat broader class of chlorine-containing organic
- compounds that have similar properties - unreactive in the
- troposphere, but readily photolyzed in the stratosphere. These include:
-
- HydroChloroFluoroCarbons such as CHClF2 (HCFC-22, R-22);
- Carbon Tetrachloride (tetrachloromethane), CCl4;
- Methyl Chloroform (1,1,1 trichloroethane), CH3CCl3 (R-140a);
- and Methyl Chloride (chloromethane), CH3Cl.
-
- (The more careful publications always use phrases like "CFC's and
- related compounds", but this gets tedious.)
-
- Only methyl chloride has a large natural source; it is produced
- biologically in the oceans and chemically from biomass burning.
- The CFC's and CCl4 are nearly inert in the troposphere, and have
- lifetimes of 50-200+ years. Their major "sink" is photolysis by UV
- radiation. [Rowland 1989, 1991] The hydrogen-containing halocarbons
- are more reactive, and are removed in the troposphere by reactions
- with OH radicals. This process is slow, however, and they live long
- enough (1-20 years) for a substantia fraction to reach the stratosphere.
-
- Most of Part II is devoted to stratospheric chlorine chemistry;
- look there for more detail.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.7) How do CFC's destroy ozone?
-
- CFC's themselves do not destroy ozone; certain of their decay products
- do. After CFC's are photolyzed, most of the chlorine eventually ends
- up as Hydrogen Chloride, HCl, or Chlorine Nitrate, ClONO2. These are
- called "reservoir species" - they do not themselves react with ozone.
- However, they do decompose to some extent, giving, among other things,
- a small amount of atomic chlorine, Cl, and Chlorine Monoxide, ClO,
- which can catalyze the destruction of ozone by a number of mechanisms.
- The simplest is:
-
- Cl + O3 -> ClO + O2
-
- ClO + O -> Cl + O2
-
- Net effect: O3 + O -> 2 O2
-
- Note that the Cl atom is a _catalyst_ - it is not consumed by the
- reaction. Each Cl atom introduced into the stratosphere can
- destroy thousands of ozone molecules before it is removed.
- The process is even more dramatic for Bromine - it has no stable
- "reservoirs", so the Br atom is always available to destroy ozone.
- On a per-atom basis, Br is 10-100 times as destructive as Cl.
- On the other hand, chlorine and bromine concentrations in
- the stratosphere are very small in absolute terms. The mixing ratio
- of chlorine from all sources in the stratosphere is about 3 parts
- per billion, (most of which is in the form of CFC's that have not
- yet fully decomposed) whereas ozone mixing ratios are measured in
- parts per million. Bromine concentrations are about 100 times
- smaller still. (See Part II.)
-
- The complete chemistry is very complicated - more than 100
- distinct species are involved. The rate of ozone destruction at any
- given time and place depends strongly upon how much Cl is present
- as Cl or ClO, and thus upon the rate at which Cl is released from
- its reservoirs. This makes quantitative _predictions_ of future
- ozone depletion difficult. [Rowland 1989, 1991] [Wayne]
-
- The catalytic destruction of ozone by Cl-containing radicals was first
- suggested by Richard Stolarski and Ralph Cicerone in 1973. However,
- they were not aware of any large sources of stratospheric chlorine.
- In 1974 F. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina realized that CFC's
- provided such a source. [Molina and Rowland 1974][Rowland and Molina 1975]
- For this and for their many subsequent contributions to stratospheric
- ozone chemistry Rowland and Molina shared the 1995 Nobel
- Prize in Chemistry, together with Paul Crutzen, discoverer of the NOx
- cycle. (The official announcement from the Swedish Academy can be found
- on the web at http://www.nobel.se/announcement95-chemistry.html .)
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.8) What is an "Ozone Depletion Potential?"
-
- The ozone depletion potential (ODP) of a compound is a simple measure of
- its ability to destroy stratospheric ozone. It is a relative measure:
- the ODP of CFC-11 is defined to be 1.0, and the ODP's of other compounds
- are calculated with respect to this reference point. Thus a compound with
- an ODP of 0.2 is, roughly speaking, one-fifth as "bad" as CFC-11.
-
- More precisely, the ODP of a compound "x" is defined as the ratio of
- the total amount of ozone destroyed by a fixed amount of compound x to
- the amount of ozone destroyed by the same mass of CFC-11:
-
- Global loss of Ozone due to x
- ODP(x) == ---------------------------------
- Global loss of ozone due to CFC-11.
-
- Thus the ODP of CFC-11 is 1.0 by definition. The right-hand side of
- the equation is calculated by combining information from laboratory
- and field measurements with atmospheric chemistry and tranport models.
- Since the ODP is a relative measure, it is fairly "robust", not overly
- sensitive to changes in the input data or to the details of the model
- calculations. That is, there are many uncertainties in calculating the
- numerator or the denominator of the expression, but most of these
- cancel out when the ratio is calculated.
-
- The ODP of a compound will be affected by:
-
- The nature of the halogen (bromine-containing halocarbons usually
- have much higher ODPs than chlorocarbons, because atom for atom Br
- is a more effective ozone-destruction catalyst than Cl.)
-
- The number of chlorine or bromine atoms in a molecule.
-
- Molecular Mass (since ODP is defined by comparing equal masses
- rather than equal numbers of moles.)
-
- Atmospheric lifetime (CH3CCl3 has a lower ODP than CFC-11, because
- much of the CH3CCl3 is destroyed in the troposphere.)
-
- The ODP as defined above is a steady-state or long-term property. As
- such it can be misleading when one considers the possible effects of CFC
- replacements. Many of the proposed replacements have short atmospheric
- lifetimes, which in general is good; however, if a compound has a short
- _stratospheric_ lifetime, it will release its chlorine or bromine atoms
- more quickly than a compound with a longer stratospheric lifetime. Thus
- the short term effect of such a compound on the ozone layer is larger
- than would be predicted from the ODP alone (and the long-term effect
- correspondingly smaller.)(The ideal combination would be a short
- tropospheric lifetime, since those molecules which are destroyed in the
- troposphere don't get a chance to destroy any stratospheric ozone,
- combined with a long stratospheric lifetime.) To get around this, the
- concept of a Time-Dependent Ozone Depletion Potential has been
- introduced [Solomon and Albritton] [WMO 1991]:
-
-
- Loss of ozone due to X over time period T
- ODP(x,T) == ----------------------------------------------
- Loss of ozone due to CFC-11 over time period T
-
- As T->infinity, this converges to the steady-state ODP defined previously.
-
- The following table lists time-dependent and steady-state ODP's for
- a few halocarbons [Solomon and Albritton] [WMO 1991]
-
- Compound Formula Ozone Depletion Potential
-
- 10 yr 30 yr 100 yr Steady State
-
- CFC-113 CF2ClCFCl2 0.56 0.62 0.78 1.10
- carbon tetrachloride CCl4 1.25 1.22 1.14 1.08
- methyl chloroform CH3CCl3 0.75 0.32 0.15 0.12
- HCFC-22 CHF2Cl 0.17 0.12 0.07 0.05
- Halon - 1301 CF3Br 10.4 10.7 11.5 12.5
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.9) What about HCFC's and HFC's? Do they destroy ozone?
-
- HCFC's (hydrochlorofluorocarbons) differ from CFC's in that only
- some, rather than all, of the hydrogen in the parent hydrocarbon
- has been replaced by chlorine or fluorine. The most familiar
- example is CHClF2, known as "HCFC-22", used as a refrigerant and
- in many home air conditioners (auto air conditioners use CFC-12).
- The hydrogen atom makes the molecule susceptible to attack by the
- hydroxyl (OH) radical, so a large fraction of the HCFC's are
- destroyed before they reach the stratosphere. Molecule for
- molecule, then, HCFC's destroy much less ozone than CFC's, and
- they were suggested as CFC substitutes as long ago as 1976.
-
- Most HCFC's have ozone depletion potentials around 0.01-0.1, so that
- during its lifetime a typical HCFC will have destroyed 1-10% as
- much ozone as the same amount of CFC-12. Since the HCFC's are more
- reactive in the troposphere, fewer of them reach the stratosphere.
- However, they are also more reactive in the stratosphere, so they
- release chlorine more quickly. The short-term effects are therefore
- larger than one would predict from the steady-state ozone depletion
- potential. When evaluating substitutes for CFC's, the "time-dependent
- ozone depletion potential", discussed in the preceding section,
- is more useful than the steady-state ODP. [Solomon and Albritton]
-
- HFC's, hydrofluorocarbons, contain no chlorine at all, and hence
- have an ozone depletion potential of zero. (In 1993 there were
- tentative reports that the fluorocarbon radicals produced by
- photolysis of HFC's could catalyze ozone loss, but this has now
- been shown to be negligible [Ravishankara et al. 1994]) A familiar
- example is CF3CH2F, known as HFC-134a, which is being used in some
- automobile air conditioners and refrigerators. HFC-134a is more
- expensive and more difficult to work with than CFC's, and while it
- has no effect on stratospheric ozone it is a greenhouse gas (though
- somewhat less potent than the CFC's). Some engineers have argued
- that non-CFC fluids, such as propane-isobutane mixtures, are better
- substitutes for CFC-12 in auto air conditioners than HFC-134a.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.10) *IS* the ozone layer getting thinner?
-
- There is no question that the ozone layer over antarctica has thinned
- dramatically over the past 15 years (see part III). However, most of
- us are more interested in whether this is also taking place at
- middle latitudes. The answer seems to be yes, although so far the
- effect are small.
-
- After carefully accounting for all of the known natural variations,
- a net decrease of about 3% per decade for the period 1978-1991
- was found. This is a global average over latitudes from 66 degrees
- S to 66 degrees N (i.e. the arctic and antarctic are excluded in
- calculating the average). The depletion increases with latitude,
- and is somewhat larger in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the US, Europe
- and Australia 4% per decade is typical; on the other hand there was
- no significant ozone loss in the tropics during this period. (See,
- however, [Hofmann et al. 1996] for more recent trends which appear to
- show a decline in some tropical stations.) The depletion is larger in
- the winter months, smaller in the summer. [Stolarski et al.] [WMO 1994]
-
- The following table, extracted from a much more detailed one in
- [Herman et al. 1993], illustrates the seasonal and regional trends in
- _percent per decade_ for the period 1979-1990:
-
- Latitude Jan Apr Jul Oct Example
-
- 65 N -3.0 -6.6 -3.8 -5.6 Iceland
- 55 N -4.6 -6.7 -3.1 -4.4 Moscow, Russia
- 45 N -7.0 -6.8 -2.4 -3.1 Minneapolis, USA
- 35 N -7.3 -4.7 -1.9 -1.6 Tokyo
- 25 N -4.2 -2.9 -1.0 -0.8 Miami, FL, USA
- 5 N -0.1 +1.0 -0.1 +1.3 Somalia
-
- 5 S +0.2 +1.0 -0.2 +1.3 New Guinea
- 25 S -2.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 Pretoria, S. Africa
- 35 S -3.6 -3.2 -4.5 -2.6 Buenos Aires
- 45 S -4.8 -4.2 -7.7 -4.4 New Zealand
- 55 S -6.1 -5.6 -9.8 -9.7 Tierra del Fuego
- 65 S -6.0 -8.6 -13.1 -19.5 Palmer Peninsula
-
- (These are longitudinally averaged satellite data, not individual
- measurements at the places listed in the right-hand column. There
- are longitudinal trends as well. A recent reanalysis of the
- TOMS data yields trends that differ in detail from the above,
- being somewhat smaller at the highest latitudes. [McPeters
- et al. 1996]. )
-
- It should be noted that one high-latitude ground station (Tromso
- in Norway) has found no long-term change in total ozone change
- between 1939 and 1989. [Larsen and Henriksen][Henriksen et al. 1992]
- The reason for the discrepancy is not known. [WMO 1994]
-
- Between 1991 and 1993 these trends accelerated. Satellite and
- ground-based measurements showed a remarkable decline for 1992 and
- early 1993, a full 4% below the average value for the preceding twelve
- years and 2-3% below the _lowest_ values observed in the earlier
- period. In Canada the spring ozone levels were 11-17% below normal
- [Kerr et al.]. By February 1994 ozone over the United States had
- recovered to levels similar to 1991, [Hofmann et al. 1994b] and in the
- spring of 1995 they were down again, to levels lower than any previous
- year other than 1993. [Bojkov et al. 1995] Sulfate aerosols from the
- July 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo are the most likely cause of the
- exceptionally low ozone in 1993; these aerosols can convert inactive
- "reservoir" chlorine into active ozone-destroying forms, and can also
- interfere with the production and transport of ozone by changing the
- solar radiation balance in the stratosphere. [Brasseur and Granier]
- [Hofmann and Solomon] [Hofmann et al. 1994a] [McCormick et al. 1995]
- Another cause may be the unusually strong arctic polar vortex in
- 1992-93, which made the arctic stratosphere more like the antarctic
- than is usually the case. [Gleason et al.] [Waters et al.] In any
- event, the rapid ozone loss in 1992 and 1993 was a transient phenomenon,
- superimposed upon the slower downward trend identified before 1991.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.11) Is the middle-latitude ozone loss due to CFC emissions?
-
- That's the majority opinion, although it's not a universal opinion.
- The present trends are too small and the atmospheric chemistry and
- dynamics too complicated to allow a watertight case to be
- made (as _has_ been made for the far larger, but localized, depletion
- in the Antarctic Ozone hole; see Part III.). Other possible causes
- are being investigated. To quote from the 1991 Scientific Assessment
- published by the World Meteorological Organization, p. 4.1 [WMO 1991]:
-
- "The primary cause of the Antarctic ozone hole is firmly
- established to be halogen chemistry....There is not a full
- accounting of the observed downward trend in _global ozone_.
- Plausible mechanisms include heterogeneous chemistry on sulfate
- aerosols [which convert reservoir chlorine to active chlorine -
- R.P.] and the transport of chemically perturbed polar air to middle
- latitudes. Although other mechanisms cannot be ruled out, those
- involving the catalytic destruction of ozone by chlorine and
- bromine appear to be largely responsible for the ozone loss and
- _are the only ones for which direct evidence exists_."
- (emphases mine - RP)
-
- The Executive Summary of the subsequent 1994 scientific assessment
- (available on the Web at http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/pubdocs/WMOUNEP94.html)
- states:
-
- "Direct in-situ meaurements of radical species in the lower
- stratosphere, coupled with model calculations, have quantitatively shown
- that the in-situ photochemical loss of ozone due to (largely natural)
- reactive nitrogen (NOx) compounds is smaller than that predicted from
- gas-phase chemistry, while that due to (largely natural) HOx compounds
- and (largely anthropogenic) chlorine and bromine compounds is larger
- than that predicted by gas-phase chemistry. This confirms the key role
- of chemical reactions on sulfate aerosols in controlling the chemical
- balance of the lower stratosphere. These and other recent scientific
- findings strengthen the conclusion of the previous assessment that the
- weight of scientific evidence suggests that the observed middle- and
- high-latitude ozone losses are largely due to anthropogenic chlorine and
- bromine compounds." [WMO 1994]
-
- For a contrasting view, see [Henriksen and Roldugin].
-
- A legal analogy might be useful here - the connection between
- _antarctic_ ozone depletion and CFC emissions has been proved beyond
- a reasonable doubt, while at _middle latitudes_ there is only
- probable cause for such a connection.
-
- One must remember that there is a natural 10-20 year time lag
- between CFC emissions and ozone depletion. Ozone depletion today is
- (probably) due to CFC emissions in the 1970's. Present
- controls on CFC emissions are designed to avoid possibly large
- amounts of ozone depletion 30 years from now, not to repair the
- depletion that has taken place up to now. [Prather et al. 1996]
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.12) If the ozone is lost, won't the UV light just penetrate
- deeper into the atmosphere and make more ozone?
-
- This does happen to some extent - it's called "self-healing" - and
- has the effect of moving ozone from the upper to the lower
- stratosphere. Recall that ozone is _created_ by UV with wavelengths
- less than 240 nm, but functions by _absorbing_ UV with wavelengths
- greater than 240 nm. The peak of the ozone absorption band is at ~250
- nm, and the cross-section falls off at shorter wavelengths. The O2
- and O3 absorption bands do overlap, though, and UV radiation between
- 200 and 240 nm has a good chance of being absorbed by _either_ O2 or
- O3. [Rowland and Molina 1975] (Below 200 nm the O2 absorption
- cross-section increases dramatically, and O3 absorption is
- insignificant in comparison.) Since there is some overlap, a decrease
- in ozone does lead to a small increase in absorption by O2. This is a
- weak feedback, however, and it does not compensate for the ozone
- destroyed. Negative feedback need not imply stability, just as
- positive feedback need not imply instability.
-
- Numerical calculations of ozone depletion take the "self-healing"
- phenomenon into account, by letting the perturbed ozone layer come
- into equilibrium with the exciting radiation.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.13) Do Space Shuttle launches damage the ozone layer?
-
- Very little. In the early 1970's, when little was known about
- the role of chlorine radicals in ozone depletion, it was suggested
- that HCl from solid rocket motors might have a significant effect
- upon the ozone layer - if not globally, perhaps in the immediate
- vicinity of the launch. It was immediately shown that the effect
- was negligible, and this has been repeatedly demonstrated since.
- Each shuttle launch produces about 200 metric tons of chlorine as
- HCl, of which about one-third, or 68 tons, is injected into the
- stratosphere. Its residence time there is about three years. A
- full year's schedule of shuttle and solid rocket launches injects
- 725 tons of chlorine into the stratosphere. This is negligible compared
- to chlorine emissions in the form of CFC's and related compounds
- (~1 million tons/yr in the 1980's, of which ~0.3 Mt reach the
- stratosphere each year). It is also small in comparison to natural
- sources of stratospheric chlorine, which amount to about 75,000 tons
- per year. [Prather et al. 1990] [WMO 1991] [Ko et al.]
-
- See also the sci.space FAQ, Part 10, "Controversial Questions",
- available by anonymous ftp from rtfm.mit.edu in the directory
- pub/usenet/news.answers/space/controversy, and on the world-wide web at:
-
- http://www.cis.ohio-state.edu/hypertext/faq/usenet/space/controversy/faq.html
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.14) Will commercial supersonic aircraft damage the ozone layer?
-
- Short answer: Probably not. This problem is very complicated,
- and a definitive answer will not be available for several years,
- but present model calculations indicate that a fleet of high-speed
- civil transports would deplete the ozone layer by < 2%. [WMO 1991, 1994]
-
- Long answer (this is a tough one):
-
- Supersonic aircraft fly in the stratosphere. Since vertical transport
- in the stratosphere is slow, the exhaust gases from a supersonic jet
- can stay there for two years or more. The most important exhaust gases
- are the nitrogen oxides, NO and NO2, collectively referred to as "NOx".
- NOx is produced from ordinary nitrogen and oxygen by electrical
- discharges (e.g. lightning) and by high-temperature combustion (e.g. in
- automobile and aircraft engines).
-
- The relationship between NOx and ozone is complicated. In the
- troposphere, NOx _makes_ ozone, a phenomenon well known to residents
- of Los Angeles and other cities beset by photochemical smog. At high
- altitudes in the troposphere, similar chemical reactions produce ozone
- as a byproduct of the oxidation of methane; for this reason ordinary
- subsonic aircraft actually increase the thickness of the ozone layer
- by a very small amount.
-
- Things are very different in the stratosphere. Here the principal
- source of NOx is nitrous oxide, N2O ("laughing gas"). Most of the
- N2O in the atmosphere comes from bacteriological decomposition of
- organic matter - reduction of nitrate ions or oxidation of ammonium
- ions. (It was once assumed that anthropogenic sources were negligible
- in comparison, but this is now known to be false. The total
- anthropogenic contribution is estimated at 8 Tg (teragrams)/yr,
- compared to a natural source of 18 Tg/yr. [Khalil and Rasmussen].)
- N2O, unlike NOx, is very unreactive - it has an atmospheric lifetime
- of more than 150 years - so it reaches the stratosphere, where most of
- it is converted to nitrogen and oxygen by UV photolysis. However, a
- small fraction of the N2O that reaches the stratosphere reacts instead
- with oxygen atoms (to be precise, with the very rare electronically
- excited singlet-D oxygen atoms), and this is the major natural source
- of NOx in the stratosphere; about 1.2 million tons are produced each
- year in this way. This source strength would be matched by 500 of the
- SST's designed by Boeing in the late 1960's, each spending 5 hours per
- day in the stratosphere. (Boeing was intending to sell 800 of these
- aircraft.) The Concorde, a slower plane, produces less than half as
- much NOx and flies at a lower altitude; since the Concorde fleet is
- small, its contribution to stratospheric NOx is not significant. Before
- sending large fleets of high-speed aircraft into the stratosphere,
- however, one should certainly consider the possible effects of
- increasing the rate of production of an important stratospheric trace
- gas by as much as a factor of two. [CIC 1975]
-
- In 1969, Paul Crutzen discovered that NOx could be an efficient
- catalyst for the destruction of stratospheric ozone: [Crutzen 1970]
-
- NO + O3 -> NO2 + O2
- NO2 + O -> NO + O2
- -------------------------------
- net: O3 + O -> 2 O2
-
- (For this and other contributions to ozone research, Crutzen,
- together with Rowland and Molina, was awarded the 1995 Nobel Prize
- in Chemistry. The official announcement from the Swedish Academy is
- available at http://www.nobel.se/announcement95-chemistry.html .)
- Two years later, Harold S. Johnston made the connection to SST
- emissions. Until then it had been thought that the radicals H, OH,
- and HO2 (referred to collectively as "HOx") were the principal
- catalysts for ozone loss; thus, investigations of the impact of
- aircraft exhaust on stratospheric ozone had focussed on emissions of
- water vapor, a possible source for these radicals. (The importance of
- chlorine radicals, Cl, ClO, and ClO2, referred to as - you guessed it
- - "ClOx", was not discovered until 1973.) It had been argued -
- correctly, as it turns out - that water vapor injection was
- unimportant for determining the ozone balance. The discovery of
- the NOx cycle threw the question open again.
-
- Beginning in 1972, the U.S. National Academies of Science and
- Engineering and the Department of Transportation sponsored an
- intensive program of stratospheric research. [CIC 1975] It soon
- became clear that the relationship between NOx emissions and the
- ozone layer was very complicated. The stratospheric lifetime of
- NOx is comparable to the timescale for transport from North to
- South, so its concentration depends strongly upon latitude. Much
- of the NOx is injected near the tropopause, a region where
- quantitative modelling is very difficult, and the results of
- calculations depend sensitively upon how troposphere-stratosphere
- exchange is treated. Stratospheric NOx chemistry is _extremely_
- complicated, much worse than chlorine chemistry. Among other
- things, NO2 reacts rapidly with ClO, forming the inactive chlorine
- reservoir ClONO2 - so while on the one hand increasing NOx leads
- directly to ozone loss, on the other it suppresses the action
- of the more potent chlorine catalyst. And on top of all of this, the
- SST's always spend part of their time in the troposphere, where NOx
- emissions cause ozone increases. Estimates of long-term ozone
- changes due to large-scale NOx emissions varied markedly from year
- to year, going from -10% in 1974, to +2% (i.e. a net ozone _gain_)
- in 1979, to -8% in 1982. (In contrast, while the estimates of the
- effects of CFC emissions on ozone also varied a great deal in these
- early years, they always gave a net loss of ozone.) [Wayne]
-
- The discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole added a new piece to the
- puzzle. As described in Part III, the ozone hole is caused by
- heterogeneous chemistry on the surfaces of stratospheric cloud
- particles. While these clouds are only found in polar regions,
- similar chemical reactions take place on sulfate aerosols which are
- found throughout the lower stratosphere. The most important of the
- aerosol reactions is the conversion of N2O5 to nitric acid:
-
- N2O5 + H2O -> 2 HNO3 (catalyzed by aerosol surfaces)
-
- N2O5 is in equilibrium with NOx, so removal of N2O5 by this
- reaction lowers the NOx concentration. The result is that in the
- lower stratosphere the NOx catalytic cycle contributes much less to
- overall ozone loss than the HOx and ClOx cycles. Ironically, the
- same processes that makes chlorine-catalyzed ozone depletion so
- much more important than was believed 10 years ago, also make
- NOx-catalyzed ozone loss less important.
-
- In the meantime, there has been a great deal of progress in developing
- jet engines that will produce much less NOx - up to a factor of 10 -
- than the old Boeing SST. The most recent model calculations indicate
- that a fleet of the new "high-speed civil transports" would deplete
- the ozone layer by 0.3-1.8%. Caution is still required, since the
- experiment has not been done - we have not yet tried adding large
- amounts of NOx to the stratosphere. The forecasts, however, are
- good. [WMO 1991, Ch. 10] [WMO 1994] Very recently, a new complication
- has appeared: _in situ_ measurements in the exhaust plume of a
- Concorde aircraft flying at supersonic speeds indicate that the
- ground-based estimates of NOx emissions are accurate, but that the
- exhaust also contains large amounts of sulfate-based particulates
- [Fahey et al. 1995]. Since reactions on sulfate aerosols are believed
- to play an important role in halogen-catalyzed ozone depletion, it may
- be advisable to concentrate on reducing the sulfur content of the
- fuels that are to be used in new generations of supersonic aircraft,
- rather than further reducing NOx emissions.
-
- ..................................................................
- _Aside_: One sometimes hears that the US government killed the SST
- project in 1971 because of concerns raised by H. S. Johnston's work
- on NOx. This is not true. The US House of Representatives had already
- voted to cut off Federal funding for the SST when Johnston began
- his calculations. The House debate had centered around economics and
- the effects of noise, especially sonic booms, although there were
- some vague concerns about "pollution" and one physicist had testified
- about the possible effects of water vapor on ozone. About 6 weeks
- after both houses had voted to cancel the SST, its supporters
- succeeded in reviving the project in the House. In the meantime,
- Johnston had sent a preliminary report to several professional
- colleagues and submitted a paper to _Science_. A preprint of
- Johnston's report leaked to a small California newspaper which
- published a highly sensationalized account. The story hit the press
- a few days before the Senate voted, 58-37, not to revive the SST.
- (The previous Senate vote had been 51-46 to cancel the project. The
- reason for the larger majority in the second vote was probably the
- statement by Boeing's chairman that at least $500 million more would
- be needed to revive the program.)
- ....................................................................
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 2.15) What is being done about ozone depletion?
-
- The 1987 Montreal Protocol (full text available on the world-wide web at
- http://www.unep.org/unep/secretar/ozone/treaties.htm) specified that
- CFC emissions should be reduced by 50% by the year 2000 (they had
- been _increasing_ by 3% per year.) This agreement was amended in
- London in 1990, to state that production of CFC's, CCl4, and halons
- should cease entirely by the year 2000. Restrictions were also applied
- applied to other Cl sources such as methylchloroform. (The details of
- the protocols are complicated, involving different schedules for different
- compounds, delays for developing nations, etc.) The phase-out schedule
- was accelerated by four years by the 1992 Copenhagen agreements. A great
- deal of effort has been devoted to recovering and recycling CFC's that are
- currently being used in closed-cycle systems.
-
- For more information about legal and policy issues, see the books by
- [Benedick] and [Litvin], and the following web sites:
-
- http://www.unep.org/unep/secretar/ozone/home.htm
- http://www.unep.ch/ozone/ (European mirror site for above)
- http://www.epa.gov/docs/ozone/index.html
- http://www.ciesin.org/TG/OZ/ozpolic.html
-
- Recent NOAA measurements [Elkins et al. 1993] [Montzka et al. 1996]
- show that the _rate of increase_ of halocarbon concentrations in the
- atmosphere has decreased markedly since 1987. It appears that the
- Protocols are being observed. Under these conditions total stratospheric
- chlorine is predicted to peak at 3.8 ppbv in the year 1998, 0.2 ppbv above
- 1994 levels, and to slowly decline thereafter. [WMO 1994] Extrapolation of
- current trends suggests that the maximum ozone losses will be [WMO 1994]:
-
- Northern Mid-latitudes in winter/Spring: 12-13% below late 1960's levels,
- ~2.5% below current levels.
- Northern mid-latitudes in summer/fall: 6-7% below late 1960's levels,
- ~1.5% below current levels.
- Southern mid-latitudes, year-round: ~ 11% below late 1960's levels,
- ~2.5% below current levels.
-
- Very little depletion has been seen in the tropics and little is
- expected there. After the year 2000, the ozone layer will slowly
- recover over a period of 50 years or so. The antarctic ozone hole
- is expected to last until about 2045. [WMO 1991,1994]
- Some scientists are investigating ways to replenish stratospheric
- ozone, either by removing CFC's from the troposphere or by tying up
- the chlorine in inactive compounds. This is discussed in Part III.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: 3. REFERENCES FOR PART I
-
- A remark on references: they are neither representative nor
- comprehensive. There are _hundreds_ of people working on these
- problems. Where possible I have limited myself to articles that
- are (1) available outside of University libraries (e.g. _Science_
- or _Nature_ rather than archival journals such as _J. Geophys. Res._)
- and (2) directly related to the "frequently asked questions".
- I have not listed papers whose importance is primarily historical.
- (I make an exception for the Nobel-Prize winning work of Crutzen,
- Molina and Rowland.) Readers who want to see "who did what" should
- consult the review articles listed below, or, if they can get them,
- the WMO reports which are extensively documented.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Introductory Reading
-
- [Garcia] R. R. Garcia, "Causes of Ozone Depletion", _Physics World_
- April 1994 pp 49-55.
-
- [Graedel and Crutzen] T. E. Graedel and P. J. Crutzen,
- _Atmospheric Change: an Earth System Perspective_, Freeman, NY 1993.
-
- [Rowland 1989] F.S. Rowland, "Chlorofluorocarbons and the depletion
- of stratospheric ozone", _American Scientist_ _77_, 36, 1989.
-
- [Rowland and Molina 1994] F. S. Rowland and M. J. Molina, "Ozone
- depletion: 20 years after the alarm", _Chemical and Engineering
- News_, 15 Aug. 1994, pp. 8-13.
-
- [Zurer] P. S. Zurer, "Ozone Depletion's Recurring Surprises
- Challenge Atmospheric Scientists", _Chemical and Engineering News_,
- 24 May 1993, pp. 9-18.
-
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Books and Review Articles
-
- [Benedick] R. Benedick, _Ozone Diplomacy_, Harvard, 1991.
-
- [Brasseur and Solomon] G. Brasseur and S. Solomon, _Aeronomy of
- the Middle Atmosphere_, 2nd. Edition, D. Reidel, 1986
-
- [Chamberlain and Hunten] J. W. Chamberlain and D. M. Hunten,
- _Theory of Planetary Atmospheres_, 2nd Edition, Academic Press, 1987
-
- [Dobson 1968a] G. M. B. Dobson, _Exploring the Atmosphere_,
- 2nd Edition, Oxford, 1968.
-
- [Dobson 1968b] G. M. B. Dobson, "Forty Years' research on atmospheric
- ozone at Oxford", _Applied Optics_, _7_, 387, 1968.
-
- [CIC 1975] Climate Impact Committee, National Research Council,
- _Environmental Impact of Stratospheric Flight_,
- National Academy of Sciences, 1975.
-
- [Johnston 1992] H. S. Johnston, "Atmospheric Ozone",
- _Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem._ _43_, 1, 1992.
-
- [Ko et al.] M. K. W. Ko, N.-D. Sze, and M. J. Prather, "Better
- Protection of the Ozone Layer", _Nature_ _367_, 505, 1994.
-
- [Litvin] K. T. Litvin, _Ozone Discourses_, Columbia 1994.
-
- [McElroy and Salawich] M. McElroy and R. Salawich,
- "Changing Composition of the Global Stratosphere",
- _Science_ _243, 763, 1989.
-
- [Rowland and Molina 1975] F. S. Rowland and M. J. Molina,
- "Chlorofluoromethanes in the Environment",
- Rev. Geophys. & Space Phys. _13_, 1, 1975.
-
- [Rowland 1991] F. S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Ozone Depletion",
- _Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem._ _42_, 731, 1991.
-
- [Salby and Garcia] M. L. Salby and R. R. Garcia, "Dynamical Perturbations
- to the Ozone Layer", _Physics Today_ _43_, 38, March 1990.
-
- [Solomon] S. Solomon, "Progress towards a quantitative understanding
- of Antarctic ozone depletion", _Nature_ _347_, 347, 1990.
-
- [Wallace and Hobbs] J. M. Wallace and P. V. Hobbs,
- _Atmospheric Science: an Introductory Survey_, Academic Press, 1977.
-
- [Wayne] R. P. Wayne, _Chemistry of Atmospheres_,
- 2nd. Ed., Oxford, 1991.
-
- [WMO 1988] World Meteorological Organization,
- _Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel_,
- Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #18.
-
- [WMO 1989] World Meteorological Organization,
- _Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1991_
- Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #20.
-
- [WMO 1991] World Meteorological Organization,
- _Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1991_
- Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #25.
-
- [WMO 1994] World Meteorological Organization,
- _Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994_
- Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #37.
- The Executive Summary of this report is available on the
- World-Wide Web at http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/pubdocs/WMOUNEP94.html
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: More Specialized References
-
- [Bojkov et al. 1995] R. D. Bojkov, V. E. Fioletov, D. S. Balis,
- C. S. Zerefos, T. V. Kadygrova, and A. M. Shalamjansky,
- "Further ozone decline during the northern hemisphere winter-spring
- of 1994-95 and the new record low ozone over Siberia",
- Geophys. Res. Lett. _22_, 2729, 1995.
-
- [Brasseur and Granier] G. Brasseur and C. Granier, "Mt. Pinatubo
- aerosols, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone depletion", _Science_
- _257_, 1239, 1992.
-
- [Crutzen 1970] P. J. Crutzen, "The influence of nitrogen oxides on the
- atmospheric ozone content", _Quart. J. R. Met. Soc._ _90_, 320, 1970.
-
- [Elkins et al. 1993] J. W. Elkins, T. M. Thompson, T. H. Swanson,
- J. H. Butler, B. D. Hall, S. O. Cummings, D. A. Fisher, and
- A. G. Raffo, "Decrease in Growth Rates of Atmospheric
- Chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12", _Nature_ _364_, 780, 1993.
-
- [Fahey et al. 1995] D. W. Fahey, E. R. Keim, K. A. Boering,
- C. A. Brock, J. C. Wilson, H. H. Jonsson, S. Anthony, T. F. Hanisco,
- P. O. Wennberg, R. C. Miake-Lye, R. J. Salawich, N. Louisnard,
- E. L. Woodbridge, R. S. Gao, S. G. Donnelly, R. C. Wamsley,
- L. A. Del Negro, S. Solomon, B. C. Daube, S. C. Wofsy, C. R. Webster,
- R. D. May, K. K. Kelly, M. Loewenstein, J. R. Podolske, and K. R. Chan,
- "Emission Measurements of the Concorde Supersonic Aircraft in the
- Lower Stratosphere", _Science_ _270_, 70, 1995.
-
- [Gleason et al.] J. Gleason, P. Bhatia, J. Herman, R. McPeters, P.
- Newman, R. Stolarski, L. Flynn, G. Labow, D. Larko, C. Seftor, C.
- Wellemeyer, W. Komhyr, A. Miller, and W. Planet, "Record Low Global
- Ozone in 1992", _Science_ _260_, 523, 1993.
-
- [Henriksen and Roldugin] K. Henriksen and V. Roldugin, "Total ozone
- variations in Middle Asia and dynamics meteorological processes
- in the atmosphere", _Geophys. Res. Lett._ _22_, 3219, 1995.
-
- [Henriksen et al. 1992] K. Henriksen, T. Svenoe, and S. H. H. Larsen,
- "On the stability of the ozone layer at Tromso", J. Atmos. Terr. Phys.
- _55_, 1113, 1992.
-
- [Herman et al.] J. R. Herman, R. McPeters, and D. Larko,
- "Ozone depletion at northern and southern latitudes derived
- from January 1979 to December 1991 TOMS data",
- J. Geophys. Res. _98_, 12783, 1993.
-
- [Hofmann and Solomon] D. J. Hofmann and S. Solomon, "Ozone
- destruction through heterogeneous chemistry following the
- eruption of El Chichon", J. Geophys. Res. _94_, 5029, 1989.
-
- [Hofmann et al. 1994a] D. J. Hofmann, S. J. Oltmans, W. D. Komhyr,
- J. M. Harris, J. A. Lathrop, A. O. Langford, T. Deshler,
- B. J. Johnson, A. Torres, and W. A. Matthews,
- "Ozone Loss in the lower stratosphere over the United States in
- 1992-1993: Evidence for heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo
- aerosol", Geophys. Res. Lett. _21_, 65, 1994.
-
- [Hofmann et al. 1994b] D. J. Hofmann, S. J. Oltmans, J. M. Harris,
- J. A. Lathrop, G. L. Koenig, W. D. Komhyr, R. D. Evans, D. M. Quincy,
- T. Deshler, and B. J. Johnson,
- "Recovery of stratospheric ozone over the United States in the winter
- of 1993-94", Geophys. Res. Lett. _21_, 1779, 1994.
-
- [Hofmann et al. 1996] D. J. Hofmann, S. J. Oltmans, G. L. Koenig,
- B. A. Bodhaine, J. M. Harris, J. A. Lathrop, R. C. Schnell, J. Barnes,
- J. Chin, D. Kuniyuki, S. Ryan, R. Uchida, A. Yoshinaga, P. J. Neale,
- D. R. Hayes, Jr., V. R. Goodrich, W. D. Komhyr, R. D. Evans, B. J. Johnson,
- D. M. Quincy, and M. Clark, "Record low ozone at Mauna Loa Observatory
- during winter 1994-95: A consequence of chemical and dynamical
- synergism?", Geophys. Res. Lett. _23_, 1533, 1996.
-
- [Kerr et al.] J. B. Kerr, D. I. Wardle, and P. W. Towsick,
- "Record low ozone values over Canada in early 1993",
- Geophys. Res. Lett. _20_, 1979, 1993.
-
- [Khalil and Rasmussen] M. A. K. Khalil and R. Rasmussen, "The Global
- Sources of Nitrous Oxide", _J. Geophys. Res._ _97_, 14651, 1992.
-
- [Larsen and Henriksen] S. H. H. Larsen and T. Henriksen,
- "Persistent Arctic ozone layer", _Nature_ _343_, 134, 1990.
-
- [McCormick et al. 1995] M. P. McCormick, L. W. Thomason, and
- C. R. Trepte, "Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption",
- _Nature_ _373_, 399, 1995.
-
- [McPeters et al. 1996] R. D. McPeters, S. M. Hollandsworth, and
- C. J. Seftor, "Long-term ozone trends derived from the 16-year combined
- Nimbus 7/Meteor 3 TOMS Version 7 record", Geophys. Res. Lett. _23_,
- 3699, 1996.
-
- [Molina and Rowland 1974] M. J. Molina and F. S. Rowland,
- "Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine
- atom-catalyzed destruction of ozone", _Nature_ _249_, 810, 1974.
-
- [Montzka et al. 1996] S. A. Montzka, J. H. Butler, R. C. Myers,
- T. M. Thompson, T. H. Swanson, A. D. Clarke, L. T. Lock, and
- J. W. Elkins, "Decline in the Tropospheric Abundance of Halogen
- from Halocarbons: Implications for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion",
- _Science_ _272_, 1318, 1996.
-
- [Prather et al. 1990] M. J. Prather, M.M. Garcia, A.R. Douglass, C.H.
- Jackman, M.K.W. Ko, and N.D. Sze, "The Space Shuttle's impact on
- the stratosphere", J. Geophys. Res. _95_, 18583, 1990.
-
- [Prather et al. 1996] M. J. Prather, P. Midgley, F. S. Rowland,
- and R. Stolarski, "The ozone layer: the road not taken",
- _Nature_ _381_, 551, 1996.
-
- [Ravishankara et al. 1994] A. R. Ravishankara, A. A. Turnipseed,
- N. R. Jensen, S. Barone, M. Mills, C. J. Howard, and S. Solomon,
- "Do Hydrofluorocarbons Destroy Stratospheric Ozone?",
- _Science_ _263_, 71, 1994.
-
- [SAGE II] Special Section on the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas
- Experiment II, _J. Geophys. Res._ _98_, 4835-4897, 1993.
-
- [Solomon and Albritton] S. Solomon and D.L. Albritton,
- "Time-dependent ozone depletion potentials for short- and long-term
- forecasts", _Nature_ _357_, 33, 1992.
-
- [Stolarski et al.] R. Stolarski, R. Bojkov, L. Bishop, C. Zerefos,
- J. Staehelin, and J. Zawodny, "Measured Trends in Stratospheric
- Ozone", Science _256_, 342 (17 April 1992)
-
- [Waters et al.] J. Waters, L. Froidevaux, W. Read, G. Manney, L.
- Elson, D. Flower, R. Jarnot, and R. Harwood, "Stratospheric ClO and
- ozone from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere
- Research Satellite", _Nature_ _362_, 597, 1993.
-
- [Zander et al. 1992] R. Zander, M. R. Gunson, C. B. Farmer, C. P.
- Rinsland, F. W. Irion, and E. Mahieu, "The 1985 chlorine and
- fluorine inventories in the stratosphere based on ATMOS
- observations at 30 degrees North latitude", J. Atmos. Chem. _15_,
- 171, 1992.
-
- -----------------------------
-
- Subject: Internet Resources
-
- This list is preliminary and by no means comprehensive; it includes a
- few sites that I have found particularly useful and which provide
- good starting points for further exploration.
-
- Probably the most extensive collection of online resources is that provided
- by the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network:
- http://sedac.ciesin.org/ozone/
- It includes links to many other documents, including on-line versions
- of some of the original research papers. At the present time portions
- of the site are very much under construction.
-
- Lenticular Press publishes a multimedia CD-ROM (for Apple Macintosh)
- containing ozone data and images, as well as a hypertext document similar
- to this FAQ. For sample images and information about ordering the CD,
- see http://www.lenticular.com/ Note that these samples are copyrighted
- and may not be further distributed.
-
- The NOAA Aeronomy Lab: http://www.al.noaa.gov/ ,
- has the text of the Executive Summary of the 1994 WMO Scientific
- Assessment, http://www.al.noaa.gov/WWWHD/pubdocs/WMOUNEP94.html
-
- The United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Ozone Secretariat:
- Main page http://www.unep.org/unep/secretar/ozone/home.htm (Nairobi, Kenya).
- Mirror site http://www.unep.ch/ozone/ (Geneva, Switzerland).
-
- The US Environmental Protection Agency has an ozone page that includes
- links to both science and policy resources:
- http://www.epa.gov/docs/ozone/index.html
-
- Some of the more interesting scientific web pages include:
-
- The Centre for Antarctic Information and Research (ICAIR) in New Zealand:
- http://icair.iac.org.nz/ozone/index.html
-
- Environment Canada: http://www.doe.ca/ozone/index.htm
-
- The TOMS home page: http://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/
-
- The EASOE home page: http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/images/easoe/
-
- The UARS Project Definition page:
- http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/UARS_project.html
-
- The HALOE home page: http://haloedata.larc.nasa.gov/home.html
-
- The British Antarctic Survey:
- http://www.nbs.ac.uk/public/icd/jds/ozone/
-
- The ETH Zuerich Institute for Atmospheric Science
- http://www.umnw.ethz.ch/LAPETH/lapeth.html
-
- The Institute for Meteorology at the Free University of Berlin:
- http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/
-
- The Climate Prediction Center's TOVS Total Ozone Analysis page:
- http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80/products/stratosphere/tovsto/
-
- The USDA UV-B Radiation Monitoring Program Climate Network,
- http://uvb.nrel.colostate.edu/UVB/uvb_climate_network.html
-
-