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- From: noreply@invest-faq.com (Christopher Lott)
- Newsgroups: misc.invest.misc,misc.invest.stocks,misc.invest.technical,misc.invest.options,misc.answers,news.answers
- Subject: The Investment FAQ (part 16 of 20)
- Followup-To: misc.invest.misc
- Summary: Answers to frequently asked questions about investments.
- Should be read by anyone who wishes to post to misc.invest.*
- Organization: The Investment FAQ publicity department
- Keywords: invest, finance, stock, bond, fund, broker, exchange, money, FAQ
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- Archive-name: investment-faq/general/part16
- Version: $Id: part16,v 1.61 2003/03/17 02:44:30 lott Exp lott $
- Compiler: Christopher Lott
-
- The Investment FAQ is a collection of frequently asked questions and
- answers about investments and personal finance. This is a plain-text
- version of The Investment FAQ, part 16 of 20. The web site
- always has the latest version, including in-line links. Please browse
- http://invest-faq.com/
-
-
- Terms of Use
-
- The following terms and conditions apply to the plain-text version of
- The Investment FAQ that is posted regularly to various newsgroups.
- Different terms and conditions apply to documents on The Investment
- FAQ web site.
-
- The Investment FAQ is copyright 2003 by Christopher Lott, and is
- protected by copyright as a collective work and/or compilation,
- pursuant to U.S. copyright laws, international conventions, and other
- copyright laws. The contents of The Investment FAQ are intended for
- personal use, not for sale or other commercial redistribution.
- The plain-text version of The Investment FAQ may be copied, stored,
- made available on web sites, or distributed on electronic media
- provided the following conditions are met:
- + The URL of The Investment FAQ home page is displayed prominently.
- + No fees or compensation are charged for this information,
- excluding charges for the media used to distribute it.
- + No advertisements appear on the same web page as this material.
- + Proper attribution is given to the authors of individual articles.
- + This copyright notice is included intact.
-
-
- Disclaimers
-
- Neither the compiler of nor contributors to The Investment FAQ make
- any express or implied warranties (including, without limitation, any
- warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or
- use) regarding the information supplied. The Investment FAQ is
- provided to the user "as is". Neither the compiler nor contributors
- warrant that The Investment FAQ will be error free. Neither the
- compiler nor contributors will be liable to any user or anyone else
- for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in The
- Investment FAQ or for any damages (whether direct or indirect,
- consequential, punitive or exemplary) resulting therefrom.
-
- Rules, regulations, laws, conditions, rates, and such information
- discussed in this FAQ all change quite rapidly. Information given
- here was current at the time of writing but is almost guaranteed to be
- out of date by the time you read it. Mention of a product does not
- constitute an endorsement. Answers to questions sometimes rely on
- information given in other answers. Readers outside the USA can reach
- US-800 telephone numbers, for a charge, using a service such as MCI's
- Call USA. All prices are listed in US dollars unless otherwise
- specified.
-
- Please send comments and new submissions to the compiler.
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Non-Resident Aliens and US Holdings
-
- Last-Revised: 26 Jan 2003
- Contributed-By: Vladimir Menkov (vmenkov at cs.indiana.edu), Chris Lott
- ( contact me ), Enzo Michelangeli (em at who.net)
-
- Non-resident aliens can hold investments in the United States quite
- easily. A "non-resident alien" (NRA) is the U.S. government's name for
- a citizen of a country other than the U.S. who also lives outside the
- U.S. The only thing non-resident aliens have to be concerned about if
- they have U.S. investments is taxation.
-
- For example, if a non-U.S. national works in the U.S. for some period
- of time and amasses a nice portfolio of stocks while here, that person
- can hang on to the portfolio forever, no matter whether they continue to
- live in the U.S. or not. But they will have to continue to deal with
- the U.S. tax authority, the IRS.
-
- Thanks to the U.S. Congress, the tax laws are complicated, and a
- resident or nonresident alien must look carefully to find a tax advisor
- who understands all the issues. Here's an overview.
-
- A person is considered non-resident in the years when that person is in
- the US fewer than 183 days; the actual rule is a little more complex,
- and takes prior years into account; see IRS publication 519 for details.
- Anyhow, in the years when a non-US citizen is considered a non-resident
- for tax purposes, that person files the US tax return on form 1040 NR,
- instead of regular 1040 (EZ, A), and pays tax on investment income
- according to the following special rules.
-
- * No tax on capital gains. This means that a brokerage or a mutual
- fund should withhold nothing when selling shares. With respect to
- mutual funds, long-term capital gain distributions are exempt as
- well.
- * No tax on bank interest. This means regular accounts with credit
- unions, savings and loans, etc.
- * No tax on portfolio interest. (It's not always easy to figure out
- interest on what bonds qualifies as "portfolio interest", though.
- Some readers have reported that brokerage firms are confused on
- this issue, unfortunately.)
- * 30% flat-rate tax on dividends. Generally this includes dividend
- and short-term cap gain distributions by mutual funds. This rate
- may be reduced by a tax treaty with your country of residence.
- (Progressive taxation does not apply to NRAs; i.e., the first and
- last dollars are taxed at the same rate.)
- * 30% flat-rate tax on interest that neither is paid by a bank nor
- qualifies as "portfolio interest." This rate may be reduced by a
- tax treaty with the person's country of residence.
- * No personal exemption or deductions can be applied against
- investment income (which is, technically, "income not effectively
- connected with your US trade or business"). Further, according to
- the IRS, "if your sole U.S. business activity is trading
- securities through a U.S. resident broker or other agent, you are
- not engaged in a trade or business in the United States" so the
- income is not effectively connected with a US trade or business.
- * If the alien is a non-resident for the tax purposes in a given
- year, but spends 183 days or more in the country, any capital gains
- are also subject to the 30% flat tax. This is a fairly rare but
- possible situation.
-
- The issue of an investment paying dividends versus paying interest is
- simple in case of stocks (dividends) and basic savings accounts
- (interest), but what about money market accounts? Well, money-market
- mutual funds pay dividends , while money-market bank accounts pay
- interest , for the purposes of 1040 NR. However, if you have a money
- market fund with a bank and the bank reports the income as dividends, it
- is probably simplest to report the income exactly as the institution
- reported it rather than try to fight it. I don't know why this isn't
- straightforward, but for some reason it is not. For more information,
- see IRS Publication 550, "Investment Income and Expenses." In the 2000
- edition, the relevant language appears in the first column of page 5, in
- the section "Interest Income," subsection "Taxable Interest - General."
-
- Tax treaties are very important. If the individual's country of
- residence has an agreement (tax treaty) with the US government, those
- rules pretty much supersede the standard rules set by the Internal
- Revenue Code. In particular, they often reduce the tax rate on interest
- and dividend income.
-
- While you are a non-resident alien, you are supposed to file Form W-8BEN
- (it replaces older Forms W-8 and 1001) with each of your mutual funds or
- brokers every 3 or 4 years, so that they will automatically withhold tax
- from your investment income. Since you have to indicate your country of
- residence for tax purposes on this form, the investment income payor
- will know what tax treaty, if any, applies. In the spring, the payor
- will send you a form 1042-S reporting your income, its type, and the tax
- withheld.
-
- If Forms W-8BEN have been filed and the appropriate tax has been
- withheld, you won't need to send any money to the IRS with your 1040 NR
- in April; in fact, you won't even need to file 1040 NR at all if you
- don't have other US-source income. Note also that as a non-resident you
- will not be eligible to claim standard deduction, or to claim married
- status, or file form 1116 (foreign tax credit).
-
- The IRS enacted some rules in late 2000 to establish "Qualified
- Intermediary" status for foreign financial institutions. The rules did
- not change tax liabilities, just made it more difficult for a person to
- escape paying tax. To summarize, a financial institution must withhold
- money from payments of US-source income to individuals outside the US
- unless the institution qualifies for the newly introduced status of
- "qualified intermediary", or unless the institution agrees to disclose
- the list of all beneficiaries to the IRS. A financial institution is
- eligible to apply for qualified intermediary status if it is in a
- country that has been approved by the IRS as having acceptable
- 'know-your-customer' rules.
-
- None of this discussion applies to resident aliens or to US citizens
- living abroad. Once you are considered a bona fide resident of the
- U.S., the tax rules that apply to U.S. citizens also apply to you.
-
- Here are some IRS resources that offer all the details:
- * IRS Publication 515, "Withholding of Tax on Non-Resident Aliens"
- http://www.irs.gov/forms_pubs/pubs/p515toc.htm
- * IRS Publication 519, "U.S. Tax Guide for Aliens"
- http://www.irs.gov/forms_pubs/pubs/p519toc.htm
- * IRS Publication 901, "Tax Treaties"
- http://www.irs.gov/forms_pubs/pubs/p901toc.htm
- * IRS Tax Topic 851, "Resident and Nonresident Aliens"
- http://www.irs.ustreas.gov/prod/tax_edu/teletax/tc851.html
- * The IRS web site "Digital Daily" has a collection of information
- for the International Taxpayer.
- http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/
- * The Digital Daily's area includes this article which focuses on the
- taxation of capital gains Of nonresident aliens (the link is
- unfortunately buried in another article).
- http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=96400,00.html
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Reporting Option Trades
-
- Last-Revised: 16 Aug 2000
- Contributed-By: Michael Beyranevand (mlb2 at bryant.edu)
-
- This article summarizes the rules for reporting gains and losses from
- trading stock options. Like any other security transaction, even if you
- get cash up front as in the case of shorting a stock or writing an
- option, you do not declare a profit or loss until the transaction has
- been closed out. Also note that ordinary options expire in 6 months or
- less, so most gains or losses are short-term (but see below for an
- exception in the case of writing covered calls). However, LEAPS can
- have a lifetime of over 2 years (also see the article elsewhere in this
- FAQ ), so gains or losses might be long-term for the purpose of the tax
- code.
-
-
-
- Buyers of Options
- There are three different tax treatments that could occur when you
- decide to buy a put or call option. The first is that you reverse
- your position (sell the option) before the exercise date. If this
- is the case, then you will have either a short-term (if held for
- under 1 year) or long-term (if held for more than 1 year) capital
- gain/loss to report.
-
- The second tax treatment occurs if you allow the option to expire
- unexercised. It would then be treated as either a short-term or
- long-term loss based on the holding period of the option at the
- expiration date.
-
- The third tax treatment for buying options occurs when you decide
- to exercise either your put or call option. If you exercise your
- call (the right to buy stock) you add the cost of the call to the
- cost basis of your stock. If you exercise a put (the right to sell
- stock) then the cost of the put reduces your total amount realized
- when figuring gain or loss on the sale of that stock.
-
-
- Sellers of Options
- There are also three tax treatments that could occur when you sell
- a put or call option. The first possibility is that you reverse
- your position on an option that you wrote. Then it would become
- either be a short-term gain or loss. The difference between what
- you sold it and bought it back at will determine the gain/loss
- status.
-
- The second possibility is that the option expires (it is not
- exercised before the expiration date). In this scenario you would
- report the premium received as a short-term capital gain in the
- year the option expires.
-
- The third situation is when the option is exercised (you are called
- or put). In the case of a call, you add the premium to the sale
- proceeds of the stock to determine a gain or loss on the sale of
- the stock. The holding period of the stock (not the option!) will
- determine if the gain is short term or long term. So if it was a
- covered call, it might be short or long term. If it was a naked
- call, the holding period will be brief (minutes?) and so it's a
- short-term gain. In the case of a put that is exercised, the tax
- situation is significantly more complex as compared to a call. To
- determine if the premuim counts as income when the put is exercised
- or if it just lowers the cost basis of the stock is determined by
- many factors, just one of which is whether the put was in the money
- or out of the money when it was written, and to what extent.
- Novice put writers should consult with a professional tax advisor
- for assistance.
-
-
- For the last word on the tax implications of trading options, get IRS
- Publication 550, _Investment Income and Expenses_.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Short Sales Treatment
-
- Last-Revised: 13 Aug 1999
- Contributed-By: Art Kamlet (artkamlet at aol.com), Chris Lott ( contact
- me )
-
- Gains from a short-sale stock transaction are considered short-term
- capital gains regardless of how long the position is held open. This
- actually makes a kind of sense, since the only time you actually held
- the stock was between when you bought the stock to cover the position
- and when you actually delivered that stock to actually close the
- position out. This length of time is somewhere from minutes to a few
- days. (Please see articles elsewhere in this FAQ explaining short
- sales, as well as long- and short-term capital gains.)
-
- What do you do if a short sale is open at the end of a calendar year?
- Brokerage houses report all sales (normal or short) on Form 1099-B as
- "sales", so you might think that you have to report it on your Schedule
- D to make the total sales number equal that reported to the IRS. But
- since the position is still open, the sale was not a taxable event. You
- sure don't want to pay tax on the amount of money you received when you
- went short!
-
- Here's one way to proceed. You can attach a statement along the
- following lines to your Schedule D:
-
-
-
- Attachment to 1998 Form 1040 Schedule D (Names & Social
- security #)
-
- Explanation of the difference between Forms 1099-B and
- Schedule D Sales totals:
-
- Forms 1099-B include $XXXX of short sales which were opened in
- 1998 and remained open on 31 December 1998.
-
-
- Forms 1099-B Totals: $YYYY
- less short positions
- opened during 1998
- remnaining open 12/31/98 ( $XXXX )
- _______
- Adjustment (if any) $WWWW
- ________
- Schedule D Sales Totals $ZZZZ
-
-
- Note that when the short positions are finally closed out, the brokerage
- house will not make any indication on that year's 1099-B, but that's the
- year when you have to report the gains or losses realized in the
- transaction.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Tax Swaps
-
- Last-Revised: 12 Aug 1996
- Contributed-By: Bill Rini (bill at moneypages.com), and other anonymous
- contributors
-
- A tax swap is an investment strategy usually designed for municipal bond
- portfolios. It is designed to allow you to take a tax loss in your
- portfolio while at the same time adjusting factors such as credit
- quality, maturity, etc. to better meet your current needs and the
- outlook of the market. A tax swap can create a capital loss for tax
- purposes, can maintain or enhance the overall credit quality of your
- portfolio, and can increase current income.
-
- It's important to note that tax swaps are not for everyone. And as
- always, you should consult with a tax professional before making any
- investment desicion that is designed to produce tax benefits.
-
- Here is an example of a hypothetical tax swap. I have not factored
- accrued interest to keep the calculations fairly simple.
-
- Current Bond - You will sell this bond to generate a capital loss.
-
- $10,000 par value "ABC" Tax Free bond, A rated, with a coupon of 4.70%.
- maturing 09/01/03 originally purchased for $10,000 (100) but with a
- current market value of only $9030 (90.30).
-
- Replacement Bond - The bond you will buy to replace your current bond.
-
- $10,000 par value "XYZ" Tax Free bond, AAA rated, with a coupon of 5.20%
- maturing 12/01/12 The current selling price of this bond is $8724
- (87.24)
- Sell "ABC" Bond $9030.00
- Buy "XYZ" Bond $8724.00
- --------
- Difference: $306.00
- The tax swap accomplished the following. First, you received $306.00
- cash. Second, you upgraded the credit quality of your single-bond
- portfolio from A to AAA. Third, you generated a capital loss of $970.00
- (original purchase price minus the selling price). Fourth, you've
- increased the bond's maturity and coupon, so its duration will be
- greater. This swap will increase the portfolio's sensitivity to
- interest rate changes, which may or may not be what the investor had in
- mind. In particular, it might be not appropriate for a short-term
- investment. If the bond is held to maturity, then no risk is assumed
- other than default risk. (Although unrealized value would change
- wildly, and perhaps that's taxable in some circumstance).
-
- Portions of this article are copyright 1995 by Bill Rini.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Uniform Gifts to Minors Act (UGMA)
-
- Last-Revised: 15 Feb 2001
- Contributed-By: Art Kamlet (artkamlet at aol.com), Aaron Schindler, Mark
- Eckenwiler, Brian Mork, Rich Carreiro (rlcarr at
- animato.arlington.ma.us)
-
- The Uniform Gifts to Minors Act (UGMA), called the Uniform Transfers to
- Minors Act (UTMA) in some states, is simply a way for a minor to own
- securities.
-
- The UGMA/UTMA setup is commonly used to give monies to a minor. IRS
- regulations allows a person to give many thousands of dollars per year
- to any other person with no tax consequences (please see the FAQ article
- on Estate and Gift Tax for current numbers). If the recipient is a
- minor, the UGMA provides a way for the minor to own the assets without
- involving an attorney to establish a special trust. When giving assets
- to a minor using a UGMA/UTMA, the donor must appoint a custodian (the
- trustee).
-
- An UGMA/UTMA is a trust like any other trust except that the terms of
- the trust are set in the state statute instead of being drawn up in a
- trust document. Should a trustee fail to comply with the terms of the
- UGMA/UTMA, this would expose the trustee to the same actions as a
- trustee who fails to comply with the terms of a special drawn-up trust.
-
- Why is a UGMA useful? The UGMA/UTMA offers a straightforward way for a
- minor to own securities. In most (all?) states, minors do not have the
- right to contract. So a minor could not be bound by any broker's
- account agreement. If a broker took a minor's account, the minor, upon
- reaching majority, could repudiate any losing trades and make the broker
- eat them. Thus brokers and fund companies once refused to take minor's
- accounts. UGMA/UTMA was basically a way of providing a form of
- ownership that got around this problem, without forcing people to go
- through the expense of having an attorney draw up a special trust.
-
- To establish a UGMA/UTMA account, go to your friendly neighborhood
- stockbroker, bank, mutual fund manager, or (close your eyes now: S&L),
- etc. and say that you wish to open a Uniform Gifts (in some states
- "Transfers") to Minors Act account.
-
- You register it as:
-
- [ Name of Custodian ] as custodian for [ Name of Minor ] under
- the Uniform Gifts/Transfers to Minors Act - [ Name of State of
- Minor's residence ]
-
-
-
- You use the minor's social security number as the taxpayer ID for this
- account. When you fill out the W-9 form for this account, it will show
- this form. The custodian should certify the W-9 form.
-
- The money now belongs to the minor and the custodian has a legal
- fiduciary responsibility to handle the money in a prudent manner for the
- benefit of the minor.
-
- Handling the money "in a prudent manner" means that the custodian can
- buy common stocks but cannot write naked options. The custodian cannot
- "invest" the money on the horses, planning to donate the winnings to the
- minor. And when the minor reaches the age at which the UGMA becomes
- property of the minor (who is either 18 or 21 depending on the state and
- not a minor any loger), the minor can claim all of the funds even if
- that's against the custodian's wishes. Neither the donor nor the
- custodian can place any conditions on those funds once the minor becomes
- an adult.
-
- You may be concerned about preventing a minor from blowing the college
- fund on a Trans Am the moment the minor attains the turnover age and the
- money is under their control. Legally there is nothing the custodian
- (or anyone else) can do. Some may sugggest that a UGMA account can be
- hidden from a minor, but this is a problem for two reasons. First, any
- minor over age 14 is expected to sign his or her tax return and thus has
- a good chance to notice the income from the account. Second and more
- seriously, if the custodian fails to turn over money that is due to the
- UGMA beneficiary, he or she breaches the statutory trust terms and is
- liable for the consequences of that failure, just as any other trustee
- would be, which may include surcharges and other sanctions from a court.
-
- If it is any consolation, some states allow the donor to establish a
- "turnover" age of 21 (instead of the default 18) by making an express
- statement to that effect when the account is created. In other states,
- the turnover age is 21 by default, and an express statement is required
- to establish a lower turnover age.
-
- The trustee can transfer funds between UGMA/UTMA accounts at will. For
- example, this might be attractive if a UGMA seems to be underperforming
- similar type accounts or if it lacks the services of other UGMA accounts
- such as online access. The custodian is managing the funds on behalf of
- the minor, and part of management is deciding where to place the funds
- and with which bank, broker, or other fiduciary. The custodian must be
- certain to maintain a paper trail showing that every dollar withdrawn
- from one account was transferred to another account. If the UGMA
- account is with a broker or mutual fund manager, and a transfer is
- desired, contact the new broker or manager and they will arrange all the
- paperwork for a direct transfer.
-
- Given all the warnings above, there is a way to give money to a minor
- and restrict the minor's access until you feel he or she is ready. The
- mechanism is not a UGMA, however, but another sort of trust. Contact
- American Century Investments for information about their GiftTrust fund.
- The fund is entirely composed of trusts like this. The trust pays its
- own taxes. Unfortunately, this company may not keep the trust as quiet
- as you would like. When opening a Gift Trust, confirmation is sent to
- the donor, but in their words, "Subsequent confirmations are sent to the
- beneficiary's address." Further, they insist that Form 709 must be
- filed, it's a future interest and does not qualify for 10,000 exclusion;
- taxes must be paid now or consume part of lifetime $600,000 exemption.
-
- A future interest is just what it says: an interest in something that a
- person does not own until some time in the future. The American Century
- GiftTrust is an example of that. I believe the terms of the account
- state that money cannot be taken out of the account for any reason
- (except death of beneficiary) until the account has been open for at
- least 10 years. So the beneficiary does not actually truly own the
- assets until some time in the future. However, in certain situations,
- the *dis*qualified exemption of a future interest doesn't apply. In
- other words a Form 709 is *sometimes* not necessary and the lifetime
- $600K (which is crawling upwards these days) isn't dented. The IRS regs
- list these disqualifications of the disqualifications (don't you just
- love tax law?).
-
- In contrast, a minor is considered to own (though he or she does not
- control) the assets of an UGMA/UTMA account from the second assets are
- placed into the account -- the assets can be used for his or her benefit
- immediately. Therefore, gifts to an UGMA/UTMA are gifts of a present
- interest and do qualify for the $10,000 annual gift exclusion.
-
- With respect to gifts of a future interest (that are not eligible for
- the $10K annual exclusion) or for gifts that are eligible but are over
- $10K, a donor does not have the choice between paying gift tax and using
- up some of his or her unified credit. The donor is required to use
- unified credit first, only paying the gift tax once the unified credit
- is exhausted. See the article elsewhere in this FAQ on estate and gift
- taxes for more information.
-
- Note that if the trustee acts in such a way as to give the IRS cause to
- believe that no true gift was ever actually made, the IRS takes the
- position that no gift was made and taxes all the income to the parent
- instead of to the minor. But this is not unique to UGMA/UTMA.
-
- On a related note, some accountants advise that one person should make
- the gift and that a different person should be the custodian. The
- reason is that if the donor and custodian are the same person, that
- person is considered to exercise sufficient control over the assets to
- warrant inclusion of the UGMA in his/her estate. For more info, see
- Lober, Louis v. US, 346 US 335 (1953) (53-2 USTC par. 10922); Rev Ruls
- 57-366, 59-357, 70-348.
-
- All of these are cited in the RIA Federal Tax Coordinator 2d, volume
- 22A, paragraph R-2619, which says (among other things) "Giving cash,
- stocks, bonds, notes, etc., to children through a custodian may result
- in the transferred property being included in the donor's gross estate
- unless someone other than the donor is named as custodian."
-
- Finally, a word about taxes. Income that accrues to a minor, such as
- income from a UGMA account, is taxed as follows in tax year 2000.
- Assuming the child has no other income and is under age 14, the first
- $700 of investment income falls into the child's zero bracket. The next
- $700 is taxed at 15%, and the rest is taxed at the parents' top bracket
- . (The expected numbers for tax year 2001 are both $750.) The tax on a
- child's income imposed at the parents' top bracket is the so-called
- "kiddie tax." If the child is 14 or over, the parent's tax situation
- does not come into play at all. All the income is on the child's return
- and he or she is taxed as an entity unto himself/herself. Always check
- the Form 1040 instructions for the appropriate number to use for a given
- tax year. Also note that IRS regulations require all minors 14 or older
- to sign their own tax returns. Finally, please note that these tax
- rules are for earned and unearned income for a minor; there is no
- special tax treatment for UGMA accounts.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Tax Code - Wash Sale Rule
-
- Last-Revised: 11 Mar 2000
- Contributed-by: Art Kamlet (artkamlet at aol.com), Rich Carreiro (rlcarr
- at animato.arlington.ma.us)
-
- A "wash sale" describes the situation in which you sell shares of some
- security at a loss, and within 30 days you purchase substantially
- identical securities. At face value, it looks like you took a loss on
- an investment (would would be deductible from your gross income when you
- do your taxes), yet you still own that investment, you just now have a
- lower cost basis. Unfortunately, the IRS does not consider the loss
- resulting from such a transaction to be deductible. If a sale is
- considered to be a wash sale, the loss cannot be treated as a capital
- loss on your federal tax return. In fact, the cost basis of the
- securities purchased is increased by the amount of that disallowed loss.
- The goal is to prevent someone from converting a paper loss into a real
- loss while actually hanging onto that same position.
-
- For the word from the horses mouth, here's a quote from IRS publication
- 550, "Investment Income and Expenses" (1990), p. 37:
-
- Wash Sales:
- You cannot deduct losses from wash sales or trades of stock or
- securities. However, the gain from these sales is taxable.
-
- A wash sale occurs when you sell stock or securities at a loss and
- within 30 days before or after the sale you buy or acquire in a fully
- taxable trade, or acquire a contract or option to buy, substantially
- identical stock or securities. If you sell stock and your spouse or a
- corporation you control buys substantially identical stock, you also
- have a wash sale. You add the disallowed loss to the basis of the new
- stock or security.
-
- This rule includes normal purchases followed by sales (i.e., you go
- long, then sell at a later date) as well as short sales and later
- purchases.
-
- Here's an extended example that may help clarify how the math must be
- done. The rule is actually rather simple, but when lots of trades are
- involved it can lead to very complicated situations.
- 1. 4/01/99 bought 100 at 120.
- 2. 5/01/99 sold 100 at 110
- The loss was 10 x 100 = $1000.
- 3. 5/02/99 bought 100 at 95.
- Causes a wash sale of loss on 5/01/99.
- 4. 5/03/99 sold 100 at 100.
- The gain was 5 x 100 = $500, but you must add the wash sale $1000
- into the basis of the purchase on 5/02/99, therefore this turns
- into a loss of $500.
- 5. 5/10/99 bought 100 at (any price).
- The sale on 5/03/99 is considered a wash sale even though it became
- a loss by adding in a wash sale from a previous sale. Stated
- differently, wash sales can create subsequent wash sales.
-
- The IRS publication goes on explaining all those terms (substantially
- identical, stock or security, ...). It runs on several pages, too much
- to type in. You should definitely call IRS for the most updated ones
- for detail. Phone number: 800-TAX-FORM (800-829-3676). Or visit their
- web site at http://www.irs.ustreas.gov
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Basics
-
- Last-Revised: 27 Jan 1998
- Contributed-By: Maurice Suhre, Neil Johnson
-
- The following material introduces technical analysis and is intended to
- be educational. If you are intrigued, do your own reading. The answers
- are brief and cannot possibly do justice to the topics. The references
- provide a substantial amount of information.
-
- First, the references; the links point to Amazon, where you can buy the
- books if you're really interested.
-
- 1. John J. Murphy
- Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets
- 2. Martin J. Pring
- Technical Analysis Explained
- 3. Stan Weinstein
- Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
-
- Now we'll introduce technical analysis and explain some commonly
- mentioned aspects.
-
- 1. What is technical analysis?
- Technical analysis attempts to use past stock price and volume
- information to predict future price movements. Note the emphasis.
- It also attempts to time the markets.
-
-
- 2. Does it have any chance of working, or is it just like reading tea
- leaves?
- There are a couple of plausibility arguments. One is that the
- chart patterns represent the past behavior of the pool of
- investors. Since that pool doesn't change rapidly, one might
- expect to see similar chart patterns in the future. Another
- argument is that the chart patterns display the action inherent in
- an auction market. Since not everyone reacts to information
- instantly, the chart can provide some predictive value. A third
- argument is that the chart patterns appear over and over again.
- Even if I don't know why they happen, I shouldn't trade or invest
- against them. A fourth argument is that investors swing from
- overly optimistic to excessively pessimistic and back again.
- Technical analysis can provide some estimates of this situation.
-
- A contrary view is that it is just coincidence and there is little,
- if any, causality present. Or that even if there is some sort of
- causality process going on, it isn't strong enough to trade off of.
-
- A very contrary view: The past and future performance of a stock
- may be correlated, but that does not mean or imply causality. So,
- relying on technical analysis to buy/sell a stock is like relying
- on the position of the stars in the atmosphere or the phases of the
- moon to decide whether to buy or sell.
-
-
- 3. I am a fundamentalist. Should I know anything about technical
- analysis?
- Perhaps. You should consider delaying purchase of stocks whose
- chart patterns look bad, no matter how good the fundamentals. The
- market is telling you something is still awry. Another argument is
- that the technicians won't be buying and they will not be helping
- the stock move up. On the other hand (as the economists say), it
- makes it easy for you to buy in front of them. And, of course, you
- can ignore technical analysis viewpoints and rely solely on
- fundamentals.
-
-
- 4. What are moving averages?
- Observe that a period can be a day, a week, a month, or as little
- as 1 minute. Stock and mutual fund charts normally are daily
- postings or weekly postings. An N period (simple) moving average
- is computed by summing the last N data points and dividing by N.
- Moving averages are normally simple unless otherwise specified.
-
- An exponential moving average is computed slightly differently.
- Let X[i] be a series of data points. Then the Exponential Moving
- Average (EMA) is computed by:
- EMA[i] = (1 - sm) * EMA[i-1] + sm * X[i]
-
- where sm = 2/(N+1), and EMA[1] = X[1].
-
- "sm" is the smoothing constant for an N period EMA. Note that the
- EMA provides more weighting to the recent data, less weighting to
- the old data.
-
-
- 5. What is Stage Analysis?
- Stan Weinstein [ref 3] developed a theory (based on his
- observations) that stocks usually go through four stages in order.
- Stage 1 is a time period where the stock fluctuates in a relatively
- narrow range. Little or nothing seems to be happening and the
- stock price will wander back and forth across the 200 day moving
- average. This period is generally called "base building". Stage 2
- is an advancing stage characterized by the stock rising above the
- 200 and 50 day moving averages. The stock may drop below the 50
- day average and still be considered in Stage 2. Fundamentally,
- Stage 2 is triggered by a perception of improved conditions with
- the company. Stage 3 is a "peaking out" of the stock price action.
- Typically the price will begin to cross the 200 day moving average,
- and the average may begin to round over on the chart. This is the
- time to take profits. Finally, the Stage 4 decline begins. The
- stock price drops below the 50 and 200 day moving averages, and
- continues down until a new Stage 1 begins. Take the pledge right
- now: hold up your right hand and say "I will never purchase a stock
- in Stage 4". One could have avoided the late 92-93 debacle in IBM
- by standing aside as it worked its way through a Stage 4 decline.
-
-
- 6. What is a whipsaw?
- This is where you purchase based on a moving average crossing (or
- some other signal) and then the price moves in the other direction
- giving a sell signal shortly thereafter, frequently with a loss.
- Whipsaws can substantially increase your commissions for stocks and
- excessive mutual fund switching may be prohibited by the fund
- manager.
-
-
- 7. Why a 200 day moving average as opposed to 190 or 210?
- Moving averages are chosen as a compromise between being too late
- to catch much move after a change in trend, and getting whipsawed.
- The shorter the moving average, the more fluctuations it has.
- There are considerations regarding cyclic stock patterns and which
- of those are filtered out by the moving average filter. A
- discussion of filters is far beyond the scope of this FAQ. See
- Hurst's book on stock transactions for some discussion.
-
-
- 8. Explain support and resistance levels, and how to use them.
- Suppose a stock drops to a price, say 35, and rebounds. And that
- this happens a few more times. Then 35 is considered a "support"
- level. The concept is that there are buyers waiting to buy at that
- price. Imagine someone who had planned to purchase and his broker
- talked him out of it. After seeing the price rise, he swears he's
- not going to let the stock get away from him again. Similarly, an
- advance to a price, say 45, which is repeatedly followed by a
- pullback to lower prices because a "resistance" level. The notion
- is that there are buyers who purchased at 45 and have watched a
- deterioration into a loss position. They are now waiting to get
- out even. Or there are sellers who consider 45 overvalued and want
- to take their profits.
-
- One strategy is to attempt to purchase near support and take
- profits near resistance. Another is to wait for an "upside
- breakout" where the stock penetrates a previous resistance level.
- Purchase on anticipation of a further move up. [See references for
- more details.]
-
- The support level (and subsequent support levels after rises) can
- provide information for use in setting stops. See the "About
- Stocks" section of the FAQ for more details.
-
-
- 9. What would cause these levels to be penetrated?
- Abrupt changes in a company's prospects will be reacted to in the
- stock market almost immediately. If the news is extreme enough,
- the reaction will appear as a jump or gap in prices. More modest
- changes will result, in general, in more modest changes in price.
-
-
- 10. What is an "upside breakout"?
- If a stock has traded in a narrow range for some time (i.e. built
- a base) and then advances above the resistance level, this is said
- to be an "upside breakout". Breakouts are suspect if they do not
- occur on high volume (compared to average daily volume). Some
- traders use a "buy stop" which calls for purchase when a stock
- rises above a certain price.
-
-
- 11. Is there a "downside breakout"?
- Not by that name -- the opposite of upside breakout is called
- "penetration of support" or "breakdown". Corresponding to "buy
- stops," a trader can set a "sell stop" to exit a position on
- breakdown.
-
-
- 12. Explain breadth measurements and how to use them.
- A breadth measurement is something taken across a market. For
- example, looking at the number of advancing stocks compared to
- declining stocks on the NYSE is a breadth measurement. Or looking
- at the number of stocks above their 200 day moving average. Or
- looking at the percentage of stocks in Stage 1 and 2
- configurations. In general, a technically healthy market should
- see a lot of stocks advancing, not just the Dow 30. If the breadth
- measurements are poor in an advancing sense and the market has been
- advancing for some time, then this can indicate a market turning
- point (assuming that the advancing breadth is declining) and you
- should consider taking profits, not entering new long positions,
- and/or tightening stops. (See the divergence discussion.)
-
-
- 13. What is a divergence? What is the significance?
- In general, a divergence is said to occur when two readings are not
- moving generally together when they would be expected to. For
- example, if the DJIA moves up a lot but the S&P 500 moves very
- little or even declines, a divergence is created. Divergences can
- signify turning points in the market. At a major market low, the
- "blue chip" stocks tend to move up first as investors becoming
- willing to purchase quality. Hence the S&P 500 may be advancing
- while the NYSE composite is moving very little. Divergences, like
- everything else, are not 100 per cent reliable. But they do
- provide yellow or red alerts. And the bigger the divergence, the
- stronger the signal. Divergence and breadth are related concepts.
- (See the breadth discussion.)
-
-
- 14. How much are charting services and what ones are available?
- Commercial services aren't cheap. Daily Graphs (weekly charts with
- daily prices) is $465 for the NYSE edition, $432 for the AMEX/OTC
- edition. Somewhat cheaper for biweekly or monthly. Mansfield
- charts are weekly with weekly prices. Mansfield shows about 2.5
- years of action, Daily Graphs shows 1 year or 6 months for the less
- active stocks. Of course there are many charts on the web. See
- the article elsewhere in the technical analysis section of this FAQ
- about free charts.
-
- S&P Trendline Chart Guide is about $145 per year. It provides over
- 4,000 charts. These charts show one year of weekly price/volume
- data and do not provide nearly the detail that Daily Graphs do.
- You get what you pay for. There are other charting services
- available. These are merely representative examples.
-
-
- 15. Can I get charts with a PC program?
- Yes. There are many programs available for various prices. Daily
- quotes run about $35 or so a month from Dial Data, for example. Or
- you can manually enter the data from the newspaper.
-
-
- 16. What would a PC program do that a charting service doesn't?
- Programs provide a wide range of technical analysis computations in
- addition to moving averages. RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc., are
- routinely included. See Murphy's book [Ref 1] for definitions.
- Frequently you can change the length of the moving averages or
- other parameters. As another example, AIQ StockExpert provides an
- "expert rating" suggesting purchase or short depending on the
- rating. Intermediate values of the rating are less conclusive.
-
-
- 17. What does a charting service do that a PC doesn't?
- Charts generally contain a fair amount of fundamental information
- such as sales, dividends, prior growth rates, institutional
- ownership.
-
-
- 18. Can I draw my own charts?
- Of course. For example, if you only want to follow a handful of
- mutual funds of stocks, charting on a weekly basis is easy enough.
- EMAs are also easy enough to compute, but will take a while to
- overcome the lack of a suitable starting value.
-
-
- 19. What about wedges, exhaustion gaps, breakaway gaps, coils, saucer
- bottoms, and all those other weird formations?
- The answer is beyond the scope of this FAQ article. Such patterns
- can be seen, particularly if you have a good imagination. Many
- believe they are not reliable. There is some discussion in Murphy
- [ref 1].
-
-
- 20. Are there any aspects of technical analysis that don't seem quite
- so much like hokum or tea leaf reading?
- The oscillator set known as "stochastics" (a bit of a misnomer) is
- based on the observation that a stock which is advancing will tend
- to close nearer to the high of the day than the low. The reverse
- is true for declining stocks. It compares today's close to the
- highest high and lowest low of the last five days. This indicator
- attempts to provide a number which will indicate where you are in
- the declining/advancing stage.
-
-
- 21. Can I develop my own technical indicators?
- Yes. The problem is validating them via some sort of backtesting
- procedure. This requires data and work. One suggestion is to
- split the data into two time periods. Develop your indicator on
- one half and then see if it still works on the other half. If you
- aren't careful, you end up "curve fitting" your system to the data.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Bollinger Bands
-
- Last-Revised: 12 Oct 2000
- Contributed-By: John Bollinger (BBands at BollingerBands.com)
-
- While there are many ways to use Bollinger Bands, following are a few
- rules that serve as a good beginning point.
- 1. Bollinger Bands provide a relative definition of high and low.
- 2. That relative definition can be used to compare price action and
- indicator action to arrive at rigorous buy and sell decisions.
- 3. Appropriate indicators can be derived from momentum, volume,
- sentiment, open interest, inter-market data, etc.
- 4. Volatility and trend have already been deployed in the construction
- of Bollinger Bands, so their use for confirmation of price action
- is not recommended.
- 5. The indicators used should not be directly related to one another.
- For example, you might use one momentum indicator and one volume
- indicator successfully, but two momentum indicators aren't better
- than one.
- 6. Bollinger Bands can also be used to clarify pure price patterns
- such as "M" tops and "W" bottoms, momentum shifts, etc.
- 7. Price can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down the
- lower Bollinger Band.
- 8. Closes outside the Bollinger Bands are continuation signals, not
- reversal signals. (This has been the basis for many successful
- volatility breakout systems.)
- 9. The default parameters of 20 periods for the moving average and
- standard deviation calculations, and two standard deviations for
- the bandwidth are just that, defaults. The actual parameters
- needed for any given market/task may be different.
- 10. The average deployed should not be the best one for crossovers.
- Rather, it should be descriptive of the intermediate-term trend.
- 11. If the average is lengthened the number of standard deviations
- needs to be increased simultaneously; from 2 at 20 periods, to 2.5
- at 50 periods. Likewise, if the average is shortened the number of
- standard deviations should be reduced; from 2 at 20 periods, to 1.5
- at 10 periods.
- 12. Bollinger Bands are based upon a simple moving average. This is
- because a simple moving average is used in the standard deviation
- calculation and we wish to be logically consistent.
- 13. Make no statistical assumptions based on the use of the standard
- deviation calculation in the construction of the bands. The sample
- size in most deployments of Bollinger Bands is simply too small for
- statistical significance.
- 14. Finally, tags of the bands are just that, tags not signals. A
- tag of the upper Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a sell
- signal. A tag of the lower Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself
- a buy signal. For a free tutorial on Bollinger Bands, please visit
- http://www.BollingerBands.com/services/bb/intro.asp
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Black-Scholes Model
-
- Last-Revised: 10 Apr 1997
- Contributed-By: Kevin Lee (kevsterdtn at aol.com)
-
- Black and Scholes are the mathmeticians who developed a model (formula)
- that determines theoretical value of an option based on volatility and
- time to expiration. Although this valuation is a theoretical value, it
- is essentially the industry standard.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Commodity Channel Index
-
- Last-Revised: 1 Apr 1997
- Contributed-By: (anonymous), contact Chris Lott ( contact me )
-
- The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a timing tool that works best with
- seasonal or cyclical contracts. It keeps trades neutral in a sideways
- moving market, and helps get in the market when a breakout occurs. A
- moving average of the CCI can also be displayed. A constant number is
- entered in the parameter screen to adjust the sensitivity of the index.
- This will change the visual amplitude of the index lines.
- FORMULAS: AVE = SUM OF LAST N PRICES / D
- MEAN DEVIATION = SUM OF LAST (PRICE - AVE) / D
- CCI = C * (PRICE - AVE) / MEAN DEVIATION
- CCIAVE = OLD.CCIAVE + (SF * (CCI - OLD.CCIAVE))
- SF: Smoothing Factor = 2 / (N + 1) where N = periods in ave,
- or Smoothing Factor = 0 < SF < 1
-
- PARAMETERS: 1st: Number of bars in the AVE average (ie. 5A).
- Use the H,L,M,A study modifiers.
- 2nd: Multiplier constant C (usually 50-150).
- 3rd: Optional number of bars in the CCI average (ie. 3).
- Example: 8,150,3
-
- SCALE: Grid lines at the +100, 0 and -100 levels.
-
- COLOR: 1st: CCI 2nd: Exponential average of CCI
-
- HOW TO USE: Buy when CCI crosses ABOVE the +100 scale line.
- Sell when CCI crosses BELOW the -100 scale line.
-
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Charting Services
-
- Last-Revised: 27 Apr 1997
- Contributed-By: Joseph Shandling (jshandl at ucs.net)
-
- Thanks to the many free quote servers on the net, you don't need to
- subscribe to a data service or charting service just to get basic
- charts. The following sites offer a whole range of charts for a
- particular stock, as well as a lot of other information.
-
- * Yahoo! Quotes at http://quote.yahoo.com
- Offers 3-month, 1-year, 2-year and 5-year charts. No registration
- is required. Pages for a stock include links to research, SEC
- filings, etc, etc.
- * DailyStocks at http://www.dailystocks.com
- Offers various screens and many charts. No charge but registration
- is required.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Data Sources
-
- Last-Revised: 18 May 2002
- Contributed-By: Zeyu Vicki Pei, Chris Lott ( contact me )
-
- This article lists some sources of historical data. Note that
- currencies are traded over-the-counter, there are no central exchanges
- or market makers. Thus, currency closing prices are really just noisy,
- "best guesses" collected from a number of different exchanges and
- transactions.
-
- * Yahoo has a fair amount of data, both for individual issues and for
- indexes.
- http://chart.yahoo.com/d
- For information about what they provide, surf here:
- http://biz.yahoo.com/f/c.html#historical
-
-
- * Investors Alliance
- 219 Commercial Boulevard, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33308, 305-491-5100,
- http://www.powerinvestor.com
-
-
- * Micro Data
- Offers closing prices on stocks, futures, indexes, mutual funds,
- and money market funds in zipped ascii files, all for just $200 per
- year.
- http://www.micro-data.com
-
-
- * Bull & Bear of Italy offers historical data and end-of-date updates
- for markets in Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland,
- Holland, Belgium, Spain, Finland, USA, Japan, Australia, and
- Singapore. Annual subscription is Euro400. Please visit their
- site at http://www.bullbear.it/site/english
-
-
- * Ed Savage (contact egsavage at yahoo.com) maintains a collection of
- data. Stated purpose: "To collect publicly available market data
- in one place so people can access it easily." Donate "freely
- redistributable" data or access same at this URL:
- http://metalab.unc.edu/pub/archives/misc.invest It is NOT a
- real-time, 15-min delay, or close-of-day quote server.
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
-
- Subject: Technical Analysis - Elliott Wave Theory
-
- Last-Revised: 12 Dec 1996
- Contributed-By: (Original author unknown), Chris Lott ( contact me )
-
- This article introduces Elliott Wave Theory.
-
- background
-
- R. N. Elliott "discovered" the wave theory in the early 1934. It is a
- method for explaining stock market movements. Actually, Elliott wave
- theory helps explain economics in general, but the stock market tends to
- have three attributes that make it quite applicable:
- 1. It is a true free market (i.e., prices are not fixed by the
- supplier, but rather set by the consumer).
- 2. It provides consistent and regular metrics that can be measured.
- 3. It is manipulated by a statistically significantly large group of
- people.
-
- Assumptions behind Elliott Wave theory
-
- * The market is NOT efficient. Rather it is an inefficient market
- place that is controlled by the whims of the masses. The masses
- consistently overreact and will make things over and under priced
- consistently. This was, and until recently, in direct opposition
- to prevailing theories that the market place was an efficient
- mechanism. The efficient marketplace was the theory that was
- taught in B-schools and often continues to be taught until this
- day.
- * That if the above is true, then you should be able to do a
- "sociological" survey of stock prices independent of other news
- that effects stock prices. ie., you will be measuring the global
- effects that the masses will have on the stock. (An interesting
- aside. We have all observed that stock prices move independently
- or in the opposite direction that news about the company, the
- economy, or the stock would tend to let us believe. The general
- explanation for this behavior is that the masses tend to listen for
- the news they are ready to hear, and that the movement that
- actually happens depends on other effects.)
-
- General Principle of Elliott Waves
-
- There are many things that have to be accounted for when doing e-wave
- studies of stocks, and that one of the most difficult things to overcome
- is the personal ability to separate your own emotions from affecting
- your analysis. You as a person have the same types of fear/greed
- internal mechanisms that affect the entire market place as a whole and
- without being able to work to dismiss those emotions you will not be
- able to sit in a position that allows you to understand and profit from
- the sociological effects that you are measuring. That basic fear/greed
- mechanism is so inbred to our existence that will keep the Elliott wave
- a valid study regardless the number of people that know and understand
- it.
-
- This is an important point: Elliott Theory measures sociological
- performance of the masses and these sociological functions are so
- ingrained that even if individuals or many individuals are able to
- understand and dismiss those actions the majority of the people will not
- be able to.
-
- Elliott waves describe the basic movement of stock prices. It states
- that in general there will be 5 waves in a given direction followed by
- usually what is termed and ABC correction or 5 waves in the opposite
- direction.
-
- Wave Description
-
- The following wave description applies to a market moving upwards. In a
- down market (perhaps the stock is truly overpriced and the market has
- turned), you will generally see the same types of behavior in reverse
- that you saw watching the stock on the way up.
-
-
-
- Wave 1
- The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused
- by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for
- a variety of reasons real or imagined) feel that the previous price
- of the stock was cheap and therefore worth buying, causing the
- price to go up.
- Wave 2
- The stock is considered overvalued. At this point enough people
- who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and
- take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However in
- general the stock will not make it to it's previous lows before the
- stock is considered cheap again.
- Wave 3
- This is usually the longest and strongest wave. More people have
- found out about the stock, more people want the stock and they buy
- it for a higher and higher price. This wave usually exceeds the
- tops created at the end of wave 1.
- Wave 4
- At this point people again take profits because the stock is again
- considered expensive. This wave tends to be weak because their are
- usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and after
- some profit taking comes wave 5.
- Wave 5
- This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most
- driven by hysteria. People will come up with lots of reasons to
- buy the stock, and won't listen to reasons not to. At this point
- contrarians will probably notice that the stock has very little
- negative news and start shorting the stock. And at this point is
- where the stock becomes the most overpriced. At this point the
- stock will move into one of two patterns, either an ABC correction
- or starting over with wave 1.
-
- An ABC correction is when the stock will go down/up/down in
- preparing for another 5 way cycle up. During this time frame
- volatility is usually much less then the previous 5 wave cycle, and
- what is generally happening is the market is taking a pause while
- fundamentals catch up. It is interesting to note here that you can
- have many ABC corrections happening. For instance if the
- fundamentals do not catch up you will have two ABC corrections and
- then the stock will have a 5 wave down cycle. (Odd number of ABC
- corrections lead to the stock going up, even numbers lead to the
- stock going down.)
-
-
- Length and quantity of the moves
-
- People tend to think of something being too expensive or cheap for the
- very same reasons that they think something is attractive or not
- attractive. This subjective judgement is called aesthetics. A measure
- of what is aesthetically pleasing has to do with fibonacci sequences.
- They are all around us, they describe art, snail shells, galaxies,
- flower petals, and yes, our own internal feelings of value.
-
- The quantity of time and movement of a stock through a wave cycle tends
- to measured reasonably well by fibonacci sequences. The measurement and
- prediction of waves tends to be bound by these numbers and by the
- fibonacci fractions (Roughly 5/8 and 1 5/8 and their inverses)
-
- For more information, visit the Elliott Wave site:
- http://www.elliottwave.com/
-
-
- --------------------Check http://invest-faq.com/ for updates------------------
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- Compilation Copyright (c) 2003 by Christopher Lott.
-