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1995-07-02
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SOCIAL SECURITY: WARNING! TIME IS RUNNING OUT ON THIS BANKRUPT SYSTEM
by George L. O'Brien
(Edited by Geoffrey Erikson & Tim Starr)
######################################################################
THE THIRD RAIL
The issue of social security has long been considered the "third rail"
of politics -- as on the electrified subway: "touch it and you die."
There can be little questioning the popularity of the Social Security
system. It is the only part of the welfare system which promises
benefits to nearly every person in the country. It is also seen to
relieve adult children of the responsibility of supporting their elderly
parents, and it helps the elderly poor for whom there is a great deal of
sympathy.
There is only one problem: the system is a fraud. In theory, Social
Security is a form of "insurance." In practice, it is a "ponzi scheme"
which works very much like an illegal chain letter. The system is both
actuarily unsound and bankrupt -- and soon the chain must break. The
chances that today's younger people will receive any benefits from the
Social Security system are remote at best.
THE PRUSSIAN MODEL
The origin of government Social Security was not American at all. It was
created by the Prussian/German leader Otto von Bismarck in 1883.
Bismarck was looking for a way to win the support of the working people,
who were unhappy with the high taxes needed to support the large German
military and the high prices created by the government-protected
industrial cartels.
He wanted to find a way to con people into believing that they were
going to get something from the state, without its actually having to
deliver. He asked an actuary how long most people could be expected to
live. The answer was 65 years. Bismarck then set the age of eligibility
for his social security system at 65, knowing full well that most of the
people would have died before they received a dime from the system. In
spite of this, the system was wildly popular.
The Prussian concept of social security was an authoritarian one --
based on the false premise that people are incompetent to look after
their own affairs and need a paternalistic socialist state to force them
to provide for their own retirement
During the 1930s in the United States, FDR was looking for a way to gain
the support of the working people who were unhappy with the continuing
Great Depression and the high taxes needed to support the New Deal. So
the Social Security program was created in 1935 (just in time for the
election the following year).
In spite of the claims that Social Security was an old-age insurance
program, it never actually worked that way. From the beginning, Social
Security paid its benefits from current cash flow, rather than paying
benefits out of interest accrued on a reserve fund as a private pension
plan would do. As Social Security taxes were paid into the system, the
funds were immediately doled out to beneficiaries. As more taxpayers
retired, they would be paid from the money taken from younger taxpayers.
However, there have been some major flaws with this system. First of
all, people began to live longer. Whereas in 1883 most people died by
the age of 65, by the late 20th century people were living an average of
a decade longer. This meant a huge increase in potential beneficiaries.
This was also paralleled by a decline in the birth rate which dropped
the ratio of workers to retirees from 15:1 in the 1930s to only 3:1 in
the 1980s. Bad as that is, it is only the tip of the iceberg. Once the
"baby boom" generation (born 1946-1964) starts retiring, the ratio will
be much worse. Estimates are that there will be only two workers for
every retiree by the year 2025. Social Security taxes alone will have to
exceed 22 percent of each workerÆs income by that point. (This in
addition to a compulsory matching amount paid by employers).
CAN STATE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS SURVIVE INTO THE 21ST CENTURY?
It is clear that the Social Security system of the early 21st century
will not be able to pay its benefits out of cash flow. For the system to
continue paying benefits even close to the current level (not to mention
continuing Medicare, Survivor's Benefits, etc.), it will be necessary to
greatly increase the Social Security "fund."
The 1983 Social Security tax increase was supposed to create a reserve
fund of $10 trillion by the year 2030. However, since the mid-80s
Congress has been raiding over $150 billion each year from the Social
Security Fund to hide part of their massive deficit spending. Thus the
Social Security trust fund is filled with IOUs in the form of Treasury
Bonds. The interest on these bonds must be paid for by you, the
taxpayer.
Thus, the U.S. Social Security system (and those of nearly every other
Western country) are caught between rising debt and declining funding
bases. The system is an increasing burden on individual workers, a drain
on the economy, and cannot deliver its promised benefits for much
longer. It's time for a change. But how?
A BETTER WAY: THE CHILEAN MODEL
Is there a workable alternative? The answer is "yes" -- and it comes
from a very surprising place: Chile.
Eleven years ago, Chile had an even worse problem than the U.S. Yet
according to Rita Koslka in her article "A Better Way to Do It,"
published in the Oct. 28, 1991 Forbes Magazine:
"Replacing the old system, then Minister of Labor Jose Pinera put in a
plan that requires each of the country's 4.8 million workers to put 10
percent of his pre-tax income into a private pension fund of his own
choosing; there are no employer contributions. There are 13 plans to
choose from, and workers can switch their funds between plans to get the
best returns at the lowest cost.
"In Chile, at age 65 for a man (60 for a woman) the worker takes the
accumulated savings and either buys an annuity or organizes an
individual payout schedule. He can retire earlier if he has enough money
in his pension fund. To protect workerÆs savings, most funds are
invested in securities automatically indexed for inflation.
The benefits of this policy to the individual worker have far exceeded
expectations. The original plans for the Chilean program anticipated a
return of about 5.5 percent. A retiree with 40 years in the fund at that
rate, would receive 70 percent of the average of the last five years of
his or her salary. With a return of 6.5 percent the payout would be a
100 percent of that rate.
It turns out that the average rate of return has actually been in the
neighborhood of 13 percent, which has induced many workers to contribute
far more than the required minimum amounts. This has not only made it
possible for people to retire in comfort, but has provided funds for a
major economic expansion.
Because the money that goes into these private pension funds is invested
in production, a great supply of investment capital was made available
to businesses and entrepreneurs at relatively low interest rates. With
capital available, production increased many-fold and a huge new labor
market has been created. There has also been a major stock market boom
(helped by new funds and new free-market policies). These private funds
now constitute the equivalent of one third of Chile's gross national
product.
In 1992 alone, Chile's economy, measured by its Gross Domestic Product,
grew by 9.7 percent per year. That is nearly 4 times the rate of growth
in the U.S. for that same year. Inflation and unemployment in Chile have
been declining steadily and rapidly over the last decade.
In fact, so much investment capital is now available that Chilean
investors have been able to invest abroad. This has led to an economic
boom outside of Chile as well, particularly in Argentina.
The program has been so successful that delegations from Argentina,
Mexico, Venezuela. and Poland have visited Chile to study how this
approach can be used in their countries. According to John Williamson of
Boston College, "One of the big benefits of Chile's system is it keeps
the money out of the hands of the government."
THE COMMON SENSE SOLUTION
According to Augusto Iglesias, chief economist for the Chilean pension
fund, Habitat, the Chilean social security system "is based on very
simple and reasonable principles: that people care about their money,
and that putting it in private hands is more efficient than with the
government."
The Chilean program goes beyond replacing social security with a private
system. It also eliminates the domination of retirement programs by
corporate pension plans, since workers now control their own funds.
Chilean Minister of Labor Jose Pinera summed it up by saying, "It is a
common-sense system that is more easily understood by the average
Chilean mother than by social security experts."
At some point people must realize the futility of trying to save current
bankrupt government Social Security systems. Perhaps then they will
choose a new a system that actually works -- a system without the
enormous taxes which threaten ultimately to destroy national economies
-- a system that provides them with real security combined with vastly
superior benefits -- a private system that will enable them to spend
their retirement years in comfort and security instead of in poverty and
want.
RECOMMENDED READING
Social Insecurity: The Crisis in America's Social Security System and --
How To Plan For Your Own Financial Survival (Dorcas R. Hardy & C.
Colburn Hardy) ............................................... $15.95
For this and other books and tapes write, Freedom's Forum Books, 1800
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