Here is a table with data on three popular indexes for ARMs, going back to January, 1987. The rates are the one-year Treasury index, the three-year Treasury index, and the 11th district Cost of Funds Index (COFI).
You can get an idea of how the indexes perform over interest rate cycles. The COFI tends to lag behind the other indexes. For example, in 1989, the one-year rate hit a cyclical peak in March and started to fall sharply, but the COFI kept rising until June. Conversely, after reaching a cyclical low in January of 1994, the one-year rate shot up, while the COFI rate edged down further until March and began to rise gradually in subsequent months.
If this pattern continues to hold, then when you see that the rates on the one-year and three-year have gone up in recent months, you can expect the COFI to continue to rise, even after the other rates stabilize. Conversely, if Treasury rates have fallen sharply in the last few months, then the COFI is likely to decline for a while.
--commentary by Arnold Kling
Note: On April 20, 1995, HSH Associates came on line with a historical table of ARM indexes. I believe they update their table regularly.
Year/Month 1-yr Treas 3-yr Treas COFI 1987 January 5.78 6.41 7.40 February 5.96 6.56 7.45 March 6.03 6.58 7.31 April 6.50 7.32 7.24 May 7.00 8.02 7.22 June 6.80 7.82 7.27 July 6.68 7.74 7.27 August 7.03 8.03 7.28 September 7.67 8.67 7.39 October 7.59 8.75 7.44 November 6.96 7.99 7.56 December 7.17 8.13 7.64 1988 January 6.99 7.87 7.61 February 6.64 7.38 7.65 March 6.71 7.50 7.51 April 7.01 7.83 7.52 May 7.40 8.24 7.50 June 7.49 8.22 7.62 July 7.75 8.44 7.59 August 8.17 8.77 7.66 September 8.09 8.57 7.85 October 8.11 8.43 7.83 November 8.48 8.72 7.91 December 8.99 9.11 8.02 1989 January 9.05 9.20 8.12 February 9.25 9.32 8.35 March 9.57 9.61 8.42 April 9.36 9.40 8.65 May 8.98 8.98 8.80 June 8.44 8.37 8.92 July 7.89 7.83 8.84 August 8.18 8.13 8.76 September 8.22 8.26 8.81 October 7.99 8.02 8.64 November 7.77 7.80 8.59 December 7.72 7.77 8.48 1990 January 7.92 8.13 8.37 February 8.11 8.39 8.40 March 8.35 8.63 8.26 April 8.40 8.78 8.21 May 8.32 8.69 8.17 June 8.10 8.40 8.09 July 7.94 8.26 8.11 August 7.78 8.22 8.07 September 7.76 8.27 8.09 October 7.55 8.07 8.05 November 7.31 7.74 8.04 December 7.05 7.47 7.96 1991 January 6.64 7.38 7.86 February 6.27 7.08 7.85 March 6.40 7.35 7.65 April 6.24 7.23 7.50 May 6.13 7.12 7.33 June 6.36 7.39 7.15 July 6.31 7.38 7.00 August 5.78 6.80 6.84 September 5.57 6.50 6.71 October 5.33 6.23 6.57 November 4.89 5.90 6.41 December 4.38 5.39 6.24 1992 January 4.15 5.40 6.00 February 4.29 5.72 5.80 March 4.63 6.18 5.61 April 4.30 5.93 5.43 May 4.19 5.81 5.29 June 4.17 5.60 5.26 July 3.60 4.91 5.07 August 3.47 4.72 4.87 September 3.18 4.82 4.80 October 3.30 4.64 4.60 November 3.68 5.14 4.51 December 3.71 5.21 4.43 1993 January 3.50 4.93 4.36 February 3.39 4.58 4.33 March 3.33 4.40 4.24 April 3.24 4.30 4.17 May 3.36 4.40 4.10 June 3.54 4.53 4.05 July 3.47 4.43 4.00 August 3.44 4.36 3.96 September 3.36 4.17 3.88 October 3.39 4.18 3.82 November 3.58 4.50 3.82 December 3.61 4.54 3.88 1994 January 3.54 4.48 3.71 February 3.87 4.83 3.69 March 4.32 5.40 3.63 April 4.82 5.99 3.67 May 5.31 6.34 3.73 June 5.27 6.27 3.80 July 5.48 6.48 3.86 August 5.56 6.50 3.94 September 5.76 6.69 4.04 October 6.11 7.04 4.19 November 6.54 7.44 4.37 December 7.14 7.71 4.59 1995 January 7.05 7.66 4.75 February 6.70 7.25 not available
To find out why American Finance is the leading mortgage lender on the Internet, Click Here