Nonetheless, on occasion I have had to eat my words:

Biggest Retractions

1. In December, 1994, I predicted that interest rates would go up sharply, and that the mortgage rate would reach 11.5 percent by the end of 1995. Just as I was making that call, the economy slowed down and rates started to fall. I issue a 100% retraction.

2. Early in 1995, I wrote an article on the 80/10/10 mortgage which confused it with a scam called a "silent second." Several mortgage bankers pointed out the error. There is such a thing as a "silent second," and it could be part of an 80/10/10 plan, but mostly it isn't. I issue a 98% retraction.

3. Around July of 1994 I wrote and article called Banking on the Internet, where I predicted a bank failure within a year. That was based on the assumption that electronic cash would be pervasive by now. I find it amazing that this crucial piece of infrastructure, which everyone knows we need and for which solutions were announced over 18 months ago, is missing. I issue a 75% retraction.

4. Netscape's Initial Public Offering made a big splash in August of 1995. I wrote an article before the IPO, predicting that it would end the first day at $39 a share, but I said that it was worth only $15 a share. After the first day of trading, I wrote a follow up article, called Bagholders, about people who bought stock in Netscape that day (it traded in a range of $54 to $75). Both articles originally appeared on the Electronic Newsstand.

   Regarding these articles, someone recently wrote:

   you are an absolute idiot.....by the way Netscape is now at $100 per share.....any comments

   I have to admit that Netscape has impressed me quite a bit, particularly with their joint licensing agreements with Quicken and others. I now would double my estimate of the value of the company. I believe that it is worth $30 a share (note: after I wrote this, Netscape split, so in current terms I was saying that it is worth $15 a share).

5. Finally, we come to my Make Money Fast article, which deconstructs multi-level marketing. About once a week I get an email from somebody from Amway telling me very politely that I have my facts all wrong. I always email back asking for the individual's three-year history of revenues, broken down by source. I never get an answer to that question. I issue a 0% retraction.
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