Extensions of 'cake-sharing' disarmament

Peter Lewis

Adapted extract from a paper

One of the more attractive features of 'cake-sharing' disarmament (see previous item) is that the procedure between the sides is semi-automated, with the conflict between them becoming instead a conflict within them. The various military factions will argue their respective cases within their own countries. But in this situation there is an authority (the President) who can finally give a ruling which will settle any dispute. Furthermore, this situation is one that the disputants can trust, since the President is just as patriotic as they are.

Salter's ideas can be extended in several new directions.

(1) Multiple powers: Full disarmament would require the participation of more than two powers. Salter's procedure can be adapted to cope.

If there were say 100 nations or groups of allies taking part, then each would start by forming its forces into 10,000 packages. Each group would then select one package from each of the other 99 groups, thereby achieving an approximate one per cent reduction in total. The problem of two nations selecting the same package from one of the opposing lists can be overcome by having the nations select sequentially rather than simultaneously - then rotating the order in which the nations choose between rounds, or having a different order of choosing for each of the lists.

'What are the minimum levels of forces required to sustain stability within and between states, assuming all states had minimum forces?'

(2) Minimum force levels: What are the minimum levels of forces required to sustain stability within and between states, assuming all states had minimum forces?

Further research is required to assess this, but when these numbers have been derived, these forces would be excluded from the bargaining process. All forces in excess of these minima would be packaged and bargained as before.

The military powers need to divert some effort into researching ways of structuring their negotiations. The resources required are derisorily small in comparison with expenditure on armaments, and the potential benefits are massive.

Peter Lewis, Romneya, St Chad's Avenue, Midsomer Norton, Bath, BA3 2HG (tel 0761 413316).


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