Harry Schultz Forecasts

'HSL' is an extraordinary libertarian anarchic newsletter 'for millionaires' (subs. cost £181), a mixture of financial tips and homespun philosophy, put out by Harry Schultz. Here were some of his tips at the start of the year for '93 (his tips for '92 were 92% accurate, he claims):

Japan and Euro stock markets to come under pressure, cyclical points: end of March, May and mid-October.

Asset-deflated international capital flows into creditor nations, as financial system crisis heightens; money goes where it's safest.

If and when European interest rates fall, European stock markets will rise sharply. Frech may the best. France may be the surprise of 1993; her currency too.

Outside the main steam, stocks will be relatively attractive in Argentine, Costa Rica, Peru, Uruguay, New Zealand and Botswana.

Clinton will raise taxes to 40% now, 50% later. Estate tax up.

Japan will liquidate assets all over the world, especially California, to pay bills.

'Best stock markets: China, Hong Kong, Thailand. Buy a China assets fund; long-term'

Best stock markets: China, Hong Kong, Thailand. Buy a China assets fund; long-term.

The £ will move significantly lower versus US $ in last six months.

The Uk economy will grow at not over 0.5% in 1993, maybe less.

1993 to see global monetisation, but without inflation. It would mean that paper money loses favour, and hard assets would gain, especially gold.

Algeria will undergo a fundamentalist revolution. (that in turn will destabilise North Africa and send a new refugee flood to Europe).

Canadian federation problems boil to the surface again by mid '93.

Move by French-speaking Swiss to secede from Switzerland.

Move to legalise drugs accelerates in Switzerland. WIthout high prices as incentives for drugs, who would want to deal? Banking would once again become legal!

'Earth changes in '93 will increase in intensity and frequency - quakes, permanent flooding, tidal waves, hurricanes'

Mother Nature is the biggest imponderable in '93. Earth changes will increase in intensity and frequency (quakes, permanent flooding, tidal waves, hurricanes, volcanos with dust in the air, shoreline changes, droughts, temperatures upside-down).

An independent Cape Province

Harry Schultz is the decentralist author of 'Cut Nations Down to Size' (which won the Social Inventions Book Award for '92) and he has this to say about South Africa (in his HSL newsletter, address below):

'The Cape may go for UDI as a separate nation'

In South Africa the Cape Province is fed up with the political situation and has launched a campaign for Cape self-governemtn or home rule. They want a Cape parliament and Cape police force, within South Africa. It's not a political party. It may help bring about a federal Swiss type system. My personal hunch is that an unspoken element here is that if Pretoria caves in to the communist-led ANC, to the detriment of blacks and whites alike, the Cape may go for UDI as a separate nation. They want to have the machinery ready, in my opinion. Buthelezi and Natal are positioned somewhat similarly. Maybe the Orange Free State and Transvaal will do likewise. It may force de Klerk to not give away the store to the communists, by not giving him anything to give away! It's the unspoken elements that will keep negotiators on their toes. Another aspect: I suspect the Cape (and other areas) don't want a national army or police force largely composed of ANC militants, policing the Cape. Nor central administrators. In my opinion, they want peace, safety and security through separatism, with or without Pretoria. I'm only second guessing what's in their heads, but some of these thoughts will be in the political air, whether intended or not. I view it constructively.

Harry Schultz, HSL newsletter, PO Box 622, CH-1001, Lausanne, Switzerland (24 hour answer service, tel in Belgium 32 16 533684; fax 32 16 535777).

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