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The 'Aiel' attack upon Demira Sedai

In Lord of Chaos, Demira Sedai of the Brown Ajah, a member of the Salidar Embassy to Rand Al'Thor is attacked by a group of Aiel, and is severely injured, but not killed. This incident has wide-reaching results: The Salidar Aes Sedai believe that it was Rand who arranged the attack, and retaliate. The retaliation drives Rand into leaving Caemlyn for Cairhien, and sets his mind against the group of Aes Sedai most likely to help him. He turns towards the Tower Aes Sedai, who trick him, capture him, and abscond with him locked up in a box, to be rescued by Perrin, the Aiel, and Taim.

The whole incident is somewhat perplexing. The Aiel who attacked Demira did not seem particularly Aiel-ish. We don't know who ordered the attack, or why, or even if the effects of the attack were what the organizer intended.

Karl-Johan:

First, it seems to be a very well organized and planned attack. It is done after Demira is shadowed and possibly lured into small, empty alleys. The attack is done by people meeting her. Simultaneously, a man appears bringing the message to her Warder at the Crown and Roses. The interception may mean that other people directed the "Aiel" to their position and cleared the alleys, giving 10-20 people participating, of which at least a few must know Caemlyn very well.

The attack team must be well trained and disciplined, appearing to almost kill Demira, but not actually risking it. I think the AS who healed Demira mentioned several spears, just missing vital organs. This, the message to her Warder, and the warning, show that the attackers intended for her to live.

Also, the attack is done after, IIRC, the embassy has been in Caemlyn three or four days. It is mentioned that there have been three audiences with Rand before, and no audience at the day of the attack. The attack must thus have been done with only three days of preparation (discounting the day of the attack).

The message, "Tell the other witches to stay away from the Dragon Reborn" gives little clue. Whitecloaks call AS witches, but they refer to Rand as Rand or as a False Dragon, and Padan Fain only thinks on Rand as Rand. A Forsaken is the primary indication from the quote, but I think that it is very carefully chosen. This is also a clue that the "Aiel" were not really Aiel -- the Aiel do not refer to the AS as "witches," nor do they refer to Rand as "the Dragon Reborn" -- that is a wetlander prophecy.

First, it seems to be a very well organized and planned attack.

It is done after Demira is shadowed and possibly lured (compulsion?) into small, empty alleys. The attack is done by people meeting Demira, intercepting her, and simultaneously a man appears bringing the message to her Warder at the Crown and Roses. The interception seems to imply that other people directed the fake Aiel to their position and cleared the alleys, giving 10-20 people participating, of which at least a few must know Caemlyn very well.

The attack team must be well trained and disciplined, as almost killing Demira, but not actually risking it. I think the AS who healed Demira mentioned several spears, just missing vital organs.

Also, the attack is done after, IIRC, the embassy has been in Caemlyn three or four days. It is mentioned that there have been three audiences with Rand before, and no audience at the day of the attack. The attack must thus have been done with only three days of preparation (discounting the day of the attack).

The message, "Tell the other witches to stay away from the Dragon Reborn" gives little clue. Whitecloaks call AS witches, but they refer to Rand as Rand or as a False Dragon, and Padan Fain only thinks on Rand as Rand. A Forsaken is the primary indication from the quote, but I think that it is very carefully chosen.

If Demandred (or Osan'gar) = Taim, he fulfills these criteria. It would be strange if the Asha'man not included people knowing Caemlyn among the Asha'man DF, and they are being trained in the use of weapons. (But not spears.) Taim also knows early of the embassy b/c Rand tells him of it. Emmet O'Brien suggests that the Aiel were Shaido gated in by Demandred/Taim, and that the whole purpose was to engineer Rand's capture and handing over to the Shaido, where Sevanna could use the cube thing, a *'angreal of some sort, which she was given by Demandred [this is assumption not fact] to do something suitably horrible to Rand, a la the meeting between the Aiel and the AS in the LoC Prologue, and the Mesaana-Demandred connection.

Fain does have access to DF's from Caemlyn, and the former Whitecloaks. But, as he thinks when he is reached by the report of the Gray Man attack on Rand, I guess his resources are rather limited. Fain could have some motive to drive Rand towards dealing with the Mashadar-tainted Tower instead of the untainted Salidar AS.

I guess the Whitecloaks can be ruled out. They have withdrawn their organization from Caemlyn, and their lower ranks would be more interested in killing AS than political maneuvering. Niall might try something like this, but the Niall POV scenes we get in LoC show him concentrating on schemes involving Morgase, the fake Dragonsworn in Altara, and later, the mysterious situation in Tarabon -- nothing involving Rand and his connections with the Tower.

The White Tower AS can also be ruled out, because they would be hard pressed to simply reach a decision so fast. Pigeon to Elaida, Elaida decides, Pigeon back, plan and do attack. Done in three days? No. Also, the White Tower lacks people and organization in Caemlyn, apart from all political (Daes Dae'mar) considerations.

An attack from Forsaken != Taim is likely, though it would have the same or worse logistical problems as Padan Fain.