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91-11-08.DLY
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1991-11-09
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
08 NOVEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 NOVEMBER
------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 312, 11/08/91
10.7 FLUX=200.4 90-AVG=200 SSN=215 BKI=3243 5668 BAI=064
BGND-XRAY=C1.2 FLU1=6.5E+05 FLU10=8.2E+03 PKI=2243 5578 PAI=066
BOU-DEV=025,016,044,038,111,158,134,416 DEV-AVG=117 NT SWF=01:037
XRAY-MAX= M4.2 @ 1711UT XRAY-MIN= C1.0 @ 2249UT XRAY-AVG= C2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +006% @ 0430UT NEUTN-MIN= -006% @ 2005UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -4.1DB @ 1050UT PCA-AVG= -0.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55608NT @ 2253UT BOUTF-MIN=55216NT @ 1715UT BOUTF-AVG=55310NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+155NT@ 2340UT GOES7-MIN=P:-202NT@ 2159UT G7-AVG=+054,+031,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+153NT@ 2349UT GOES6-MIN=P:-186NT@ 2247UT G6-AVG=+043,-011,+011
FLUXFCST=STD:200,200,197;SESC:200,200,195 BAI/PAI-FCST=072,064,030/072,064,030
KFCST=7775 4444 6775 4444 27DAY-AP=008,008 27DAY-KP=1112 3222 1112 3322
WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWRN
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.2@1712;**MAGSI:20NT@0647;**MINFLR:M1.5@0320;**SEVSTRM;
**TENFLR:330SFU@1658,DUR:12
!!END-DATA!!
PLEASE NOTE: STD predicted A-indices for the next three days are:
106/030/015. Associated predicted K-indices for the next
three days are: 8876 6434 / 4455 4333 / 3344 3222.
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was moderate today. Region 6906 (S16W57) produced an
M4.2/1B tenflare at 17:12 UT. The tenflare occurred at 16:58 UT and was
measured at 330 sfu. A loop prominence system was observed in conjunction
with this flare. However, no Type II or IV sweeps were observed.
Region 6906 has been decaying gradually over the last 24 hours while its
neighbor, Region 6914 (S18W44) has been growing. Sympathetic flaring with
Region 6906 has also been observed.
Region 6915 (N19E30) grew fairly rapidly today and began producing
subflares late in the UT day of 08 November. This region should produce
mostly minor C-class events.
Two new regions were assigned today: Region 6918 (N21E06) and 6919
(S11E76). Region 6918 was formerly the leader portion of Region 6908
(N21E17).
Solar activity should continue moderate. Regions 6906 and 6914 are
expected to jointly produce M-class flares over the next 24 hours.
The geomagnetic field changed radically over the last 24 hours. The
early part of the UT day was generally quiet until a sudden magnetic impulse
at 06:47 UT pushed activity up to active levels. Then, between 12:00 and
15:00 UT, another increase in activity occurred which pushed activity to
minor and major storm levels. This was followed at 22:00 UT by a further
increase in intensification to severe storm levels. Activity has been at
severe storm levels since then and is expected to remain at major to severe
storm levels until approximately 12:00 or 15:00 UT on 09 November, when
conditions should begin to stabilize.
Frequent magnetopause crossings of geosynchronous spacecraft were
observed with this storm activity. GOES-7 experienced crossings near 14:00
UT, 16:00 UT, 17:00 UT and 20:30 UT. GOES-6 experienced a prolonged
significant magnetopause crossing between 20:28 UT on 08 November and 00:47
UT on 09 November.
Auroral activity has been very active over the last six hours (since
approximately 22:30 UT). Intense activity has been observed to the low
latitude regions, as far south as Lubbock Texas over North America
(preliminary). Periods of intense substorming throughout the night-sector
are anticipated which may produce periods of enhanced auroral activity over
the low latitude regions. Auroral activity has been colorful. Red, green,
and white colors in auroral activity with extensive curtains and active
pulsations have been reported throughout North America. Activity tommorrow
night (during the local evening and early morning hours of 09/10 November, or
in other words during the UT day of 10 November) is not expected to be nearly
as extensive as tonights activity. Low latitude auroral activity
observations are not anticipated for 10 November.
HF propagation conditions have been significantly degraded over the last
12 to 18 hours (from approximately 12:00 UT on 08 November). Conditions
rapidly deteriorated over the middle and high latitude regions as storming
continued to intensify. Near blackout conditions were reported over
widespread middle latitude areas. Conditions should begin to improve
on 10 November. A complete return to normal conditions is not anticipated
for several more days.
Widespread bistatic VHF auroral backscatter has been observed with this
disturbance. Reports of VHF DX on 2 meters has been received from several
sources thus far. Conditions were optimum between 23:00 UT and 03:00 UT on
08/09 November. Persons who experienced VHF or UHF auroral backscatter
communications during this storm are requested to report their observations
(including the date, UT time, station location in lat/lon, and the location
or grid coordinates of those stations in which contact was established along
with any other notable observations [ex. signal quality]). Please send any
reports to: Oler@Hg.Uleth.CA, or to: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu. Auroral
observation reports are also requested. Send auroral observation reports to
one of the same addresses above.
** End of Daily Update **