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91-10-21.DLY
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1991-10-22
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
21 OCTOBER, 1991
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 294, 10/21/91
10.7 FLUX=168.4 90-AVG=195 SSN=146 BKI=1424 3433 BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=C1.3 FLU1=*.*E*** FLU10=5.4E+03 PKI=2434 3543 PAI=024
BOU-DEV=009,060,013,043,026,052,026,025 DEV-AVG=031 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C7.8 @ 1256UT XRAY-MIN= C1.1 @ 0848UT XRAY-AVG= C1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1755UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1705UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1045UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0130UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55304NT @ 0240UT BOUTF-MIN=55251NT @ 1823UT BOUTF-AVG=55286NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+123NT@ 0853UT GOES7-MIN=N:-034NT@ 1310UT G7-AVG=+058,+059,+001
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 2004UT GOES6-MIN=E:-108NT@ 0845UT G6-AVG=+072,-002,+010
FLUXFCST=STD:175,175,180;SESC:172,175,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=018,025,025/020,024,030
KFCST=4355 4224 3455 4444 27DAY-AP=033,036 27DAY-KP=3443 4455 5455 4344
WARNINGS=*AURMIDWRN
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was low today. The background x-ray flux increased
notably into the C-class range (class C1.3). Additionally, C-class subflare
activity also increased substantially. The cause of this elevated activity
is related to the return of several active regions to the east limb, as well
as the dramatic growth of Region 6884 (S12W37) during the day today. This
region has increased in size and magnetic complexity but is presently
incapable of generating any major events.
Region 6879 (N23W27) has continued to decay. Most of the spots within
this region disappeared over the last 24 hours. This region is expected to
continue to decay to a spotless plage area and will no longer be considered a
potential threat.
New regions numbered today include Region 6888 (N20E71), 6889 (S16E36)
and 6890 (N09W35). Two areas of surging visible on the southeast limb near
S09 and S21 will likely be numbered over the next 24 to 48 hours after the
respective regions rotate into view.
Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low. There is a slight risk
for an isolated minor M-class flare from one of the regions rotating into
view on the east limb.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels today. A brief
episode of minor storming was observed over many high latitude regions
between 15:00 and 18:00 UT. Most of the activity has been low-level in
nature, although spectral content has increased. Activity is expected to
gradually intensify to active or minor storm levels by 23 - 24 October in
response to a well positioned recurrent coronal hole.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to slightly below normal
today. Conditions will gradually destabilize over the next 24 to 72 hours as
geomagnetic and auroral activity intensify. No significant degradations are
anticipated over the low or middle latitude regions. Overall conditions will
be normal to below normal. High and polar latitudes will experience below
normal propagation conditions with fair to occassionally very poor
propagation conditions becoming common by 24 or 25 October.
** End of Daily Update **