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91-10-16.DLY
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1991-10-16
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
16 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 289, 10/16/91
10.7 FLUX=181.4 90-AVG=198 SSN=213 BKI=2211 1111 BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B7.9 FLU1=5.1E+05 FLU10=7.0E+03 PKI=1111 2221 PAI=005
BOU-DEV=011,010,009,008,008,005,006,007 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C4.6 @ 1655UT XRAY-MIN= B7.0 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 0825UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 1040UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2335UT PCA-MIN= -3.9DB @ 1200UT PCA-AVG= -0.4DB
BOUTF-MAX=55305NT @ 1448UT BOUTF-MIN=55265NT @ 1844UT BOUTF-AVG=55294NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1904UT GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 0725UT G7-AVG=+086,+038,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 2035UT GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 0504UT G6-AVG=+098,-005,+023
FLUXFCST=STD:180,180,180;SESC:180,180,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,007,007/010,010,010
KFCST=2233 3222 2233 3222 27DAY-AP=011,007 27DAY-KP=2333 3221 2222 2221
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was low today. M-class flare activity was absent from
all of the regions visible. The largest flare of the day occurred in Region
6873 (S23W32). This event was rated a class C4.6/2N event and was not
associated with any notable radio emissions. This region remains the largest
region presently visible. There is some evidence to suggest that a major
flare might become possible within this region before it crosses the west
limb in four more days. Proton and possible PCA impacts are not out of the
question. A Potential Satellite Proton Event Warning and an associated
Potential Polar Cap Absorption Event Warning has been issued, just in case a
major event does erupt from this region. It is well becoming well placed for
producing proton activity, should a major proton flare erupt.
Region 6879 (N22E38) grew slightly today. This region is not
particularly large, but is becomming a little more impressive in white light
and H-Alpha. A small delta configuration has formed, resulting in an overall
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Only small subflares were observed
from this region today.
Two new regions were numbered today, both of which were born on the
disk. Region 6882 is located at N18W16, while Region 6883 may be located at
S28W09. These are very simple groups at the present time.
There continues to be a threat for minor M-class flare activity from
either Region 6873 or 6879. As well, a very slight risk for a major flare
exists for Region 6873. This region is capable of producing a proton flare.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels throughout the UT day of
16 October. Conditions should continue quiet to unsettled over the next 72
hours at least.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to above normal. The
ionosphere has been stable over all regions. Propagation conditions should
remain normal to above normal over the next three days at least, barring
major energetic solar activity.
** End of Daily Update **