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91-10-05.DLY
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1991-10-05
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
05 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 278, 10/05/91
10.7 FLUX=193 90-AVG=199 SSN=247 BKI=4342 2221 BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=C1.2 FLU1=1.5E+06 FLU10=1.5E+04 PKI=4333 2222 PAI=013
BOU-DEV=044,035,064,017,014,011,011,008 DEV-AVG=025 NT SWF=01:011
XRAY-MAX= M1.1 @ 1048UT XRAY-MIN= C1.0 @ 2341UT XRAY-AVG= C2.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2315UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0820UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0535UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 2135UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55318NT @ 0511UT BOUTF-MIN=55290NT @ 1805UT BOUTF-AVG=55304NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+157NT@ 1833UT GOES7-MIN=N:-024NT@ 0753UT G7-AVG=+085,+059,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+153NT@ 1855UT GOES6-MIN=E:-035NT@ 0636UT G6-AVG=+097,-006,+026
FLUXFCST=STD:190,187,180;SESC:190,190,180 BAI/PAI-FCST=016,025,020/030,025,020
KFCST=1114 4454 4555 4333 27DAY-AP=031,032 27DAY-KP=3344 4445 5652 3423
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1@1048;**245STRM:0614-0802
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was moderate today. The only M-class flare observed
originated from Region 6850 (S12W57). It was rated a class M1.1/SN that
peaked at 10:48 UT. This event was a long-duration flare lasting 112
minutes, but was not particularly impressive other than that.
Region 6850 experienced renewed growth today and has increased further
in magnetic complexity with the addition of another delta configuration near
the center of the region. This particular configuration is inherently
unstable due to the east-west inversion line which now resides in the center
of this region. It is interesting that this region has still remained
flare-stable despite the recent reconfigurations. A major energetic flare
could erupt from this region at any time. This region is now in an excellent
position for producing potentially strong proton and PCA activity should a
proton flare erupt. However, this region has now moved beyond the high-risk
zone for producing potential geomagnetic impacts. A moderate risk still
exists, although the threat is now decreasing steadily as this region begins
to approach the west limb.
Region 6853 (S20W52) continued to experience decay during the day and
only managed to spawn a minor class C6/1F flare at 02:05 UT. This region is
not likely to spawn any major events, although a major flare may be shared by
both Regions 6853 and 6850. There is still interaction between these two
regions.
Region 6861 (N08W07) exhibited gradual growth during the day and
produced a few small flares. A delta may be forming in this region. Recent
magnetic maps show the possible delta to be rather small. This feature will
be monitored for signs of possible development.
Geomagnetic activity today ranged from quiet to minor storm. Periods of
minor storming over the high latitudes were observed early in the UT day in
association with fairly energetic auroral activity over these regions between
04:00 and 10:00 UT. Thereafter, conditions stabilized to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels. Conditions should begin to destabilize over the next 24
hours as a well placed coronal hole begins to enhance activity. Both
geomagnetic and auroral activity are expected to become generally active with
possible periods of minor storming later in the UT day of 06 and on 07
October. By 08 and 09 October, a return to more dormant conditions is
anticipated.
HF propagation conditions were generally normal over most regions. Low
and middle latitudes experienced normal propagation conditions. Middle
latitudes suffered some elevated levels of noise and fading during the local
evening hours associated with the high latitude storm periods, but conditions
have since returned to near normal. High and polar latitudes suffered minor
signal degradation with increased flutter fading associated with auroral
sporadic-E, and elevated noise levels as a result. Conditions should remain
near normal over the low and middle latitudes over the next several days.
Middle latitudes may suffer minor signal degradations during the local
evening and early morning hours, although these degradations should not be
too significant. High latitudes will experience the most unstable
conditions, but even over these regions conditions should not be too serious.
Generally increased levels of fading and noise should be observed,
particularly over the higher latitude paths. Conditions should begin to
return to normal after 08 October.
** End of Daily Update **