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91-09-25.DLY
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1991-09-25
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
25 SEPTEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 268, 09/25/91
10.7 FLUX=180.9 90-AVG=203 SSN=154 BKI=2444 4444 BAI=024
BGND-XRAY=C1.7 FLU1=2.5E+05 FLU10=8.9E+03 PKI=3443 4455 PAI=031
BOU-DEV=019,043,050,050,057,047,049,049 DEV-AVG=045 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C9.7 @ 1115UT XRAY-MIN= C1.2 @ 1837UT XRAY-AVG= C2.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0605UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2010UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1115UT PCA-MIN= -1.5DB @ 1955UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55317NT @ 2230UT BOUTF-MIN=55267NT @ 2018UT BOUTF-AVG=55298NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1734UT GOES7-MIN=N:-056NT@ 1224UT G7-AVG=+065,+058,-002
GOES6-MAX=P:+150NT@ 2340UT GOES6-MIN=E:-038NT@ 0725UT G6-AVG=+074,+008,+018
FLUXFCST=STD:185,195,200;SESC:185,195,200 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,025,022/030,032,032
KFCST=3445 5334 3445 5444 27DAY-AP=039,036 27DAY-KP=3335 5456 3355 4544
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity today remained low. The largest flare of the day was a
class C9.7/SF event at 11:15 UT from Region 6850 (S26E54), which is the
return of old Region 6818. This region is still a bit too near to the limb
to see a whole lot of detail, but appears to be a moderately complex region
with two large spots encompassed in a single penumbral mass. Some shear is
also evident in the region. This region is the largest threat for possible
minor and major flares.
Region 6849 (N13W22) was the only other notable region which produced
any subflare activity. A class C3/SF subflare erupted from this region early
in the UT day at 03:31 UT, but has since been fairly stable. All of the
other regions are simple groups that do not appear to be capable of producing
anything more substantial than small subflares.
Two new regions were numbered today: Region 6851 (S19E44) and 6852
(N11E22).
Geomagnetic activity has increased notably over the last 24 hours to
mostly active levels, which is in keeping with the predictions based on the
coronal-induced activity. Auroral activity has likewise increased quite
substantially to moderate levels over the high and northerly middle latitude
regions. Geomagnetic and auroral activity should peak over the next 2 to 3
days. A minor geomagnetic storm has materialized over the high latitude
regions. This storming will continue for at least the next 2 to 3 days.
Middle latitudes are just now beginning to register periods of minor
geomagnetic storming, although activity has not yet officially passed the
minor storm threshold. There is a fairly high risk for the development of a
minor geomagnetic storm over the middle latitude regions over the next 24 to
48 hours, accompanied by moderate levels of auroral activity. However, lunar
phase will significantly hamper attempts to view auroral activity after
moonrise.
A noticable decrease in HF signal propagation began early in the UT day
and became progressively worse as the day progressed. High and polar
latitude paths have seen the most serious degradations while middle and low
latitude signal paths were much less affected. Conditions should remain
normal to below normal over the next 24 to 72 hours as we pass through the
main zone of the disturbance. A gradual improvement in conditions should
begin by the end of the month or early in October, barring further
influential solar events.
** End of Daily Update **