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91-09-11.DLY
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1991-09-11
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
11 SEPTEMBER, 1991
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 254, 09/11/91
10.7 FLUX=177.5 90-AVG=202 SSN=160 BKI=3225 4332 BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B9.9 FLU1=6.8E+04 FLU10=8.3E+03 PKI=4224 4332 PAI=017
BOU-DEV=033,014,019,070,063,028,033,010 DEV-AVG=033 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C4.7 @ 0332UT XRAY-MIN= B9.4 @ 1845UT XRAY-AVG= C1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1430UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2015UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1230UT PCA-MIN= -2.8DB @ 0925UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55319NT @ 0130UT BOUTF-MIN=55262NT @ 1713UT BOUTF-AVG=55299NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+112NT@ 0408UT GOES7-MIN=N:-036NT@ 1053UT G7-AVG=+078,+063,+002
GOES6-MAX=P:+151NT@ 0030UT GOES6-MIN=E:-018NT@ 1054UT G6-AVG=+089,+007,+028
FLUXFCST=STD:185,192,200;SESC:182,185,190 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,018,018/030,030,020
KFCST=3345 5333 3345 5333 28DAY-AP=038,020 28DAY-KP=5554 4444 4433 3434
WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=*245STRM:@0500-1241
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity on 11 September was Low. There were no M-class flares
observed throughout the UT day. Region 6824 (S21E31) and Region 6827
(S20E49) produced only a few subflares. Both of these regions have increased
very slightly in magnetic complexity and may be capable of producing an
M-class flare. Overall activity should remain low to possibly moderate
should one of the regions spawn an M-class event.
A single new region was numbered today: Region 6828 (S11E65). Several
additional regions are due to return around the east limb anytime now.
Todays drop in the 10.7 cm solar flux was unexpected. In fact, the 10.7 cm
solar radio flux has been very unpredictable over the last three to four
days. A steady climb in this solar index should begin shortly. The peak
solar flux value for this solar rotation is not expected to reach the high
peak of 290 observed during the last rotation. The estimated peak solar flux
for this rotation is expected to be somewhere near 240, although confidence
levels are not very high with this prediction, implying a fair amount of
uncertainty regarding the possible potency of the returning regions.
Geomagnetic activity became mostly active today. There were periods of
minor storming observed between approximately 09:00 UT and 15:00 UT, which
corresponded to an increase in auroral activity (and luminosity) after
approximately 10:00 UT over many middle latitude regions. Conditions are
presently unsettled to active. Periods of minor storming are anticipated,
particularly over the high latitude regions, over the next day or two.
Middle latitudes should see predominantly active to unsettled conditions.
HF propagation conditions were normal over almost all regions today.
The only exceptions being the high latitude regions where disturbances in the
auroral zone have affected propagation conditions adversely. Conditions will
remain fairly stable over the next several days, with increasing stability
setting in after 12 September.
** End of Daily Update **