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91-09-09.DLY
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1991-11-18
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
09 SEPTEMBER, 1991
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 252, 09/09/91
10.7 FLUX=181 90-AVG=203 SSN=175 BKI=4344 5435 BAI=029
BGND-XRAY=C1.2 FLU1=5.5E+05 FLU10=8.7E+03 PKI=3344 4445 PAI=028
BOU-DEV=043,038,051,067,080,055,027,091 DEV-AVG=056 NT SWF=01:010
XRAY-MAX= C6.3 @ 0702UT XRAY-MIN= C1.1 @ 1446UT XRAY-AVG= C1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 0710UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0430UT NEUTN-AVG= +1.0%
PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1545UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1945UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 2320UT BOUTF-MIN=55244NT @ 1740UT BOUTF-AVG=55298NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+131NT@ 0835UT GOES7-MIN=N:-026NT@ 1153UT G7-AVG=+071,+066,+006
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 2024UT GOES6-MIN=E:-026NT@ 0920UT G6-AVG=+081,+009,+034
FLUXFCST=STD:190,197,203;SESC:190,195,200 BAI/PAI-FCST=030,030,020/060,100,040
KFCST=4445 6543 4556 6544 28DAY-AP=018,018 28DAY-KP=4243 4322 1112 3445
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.0@0608
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was moderate today. A single M-class flare was observed
at 06:08 UT from Region 6818 (S13W78). This region remains complex in almost
all aspects and is retaining its delta configuration. Further major
energetic events are possible from this region as it rotates beyond the west
limb. Proton activity is not yet out of the question if a particularly
significant major flare developes.
Two new regions were assigned today: Region 6825 (N18W76) and Region
6826 (N20W10). The cluster of regions which spawned M-class events on the
last rotation are due to return (and are in the process of returning at the
present time).
Geomagnetic activity approached minor storm thresholds at the end of the
UT day. A minor geomagnetic storm is expected to begin early in the UT day
of 10 September and last through to 11 or 12 September. Major to severe
geomagnetic storming is possible over the high latitude regions, while middle
latitudes should observe mostly minor storming with periods of major
storming.
Auroral activity will become very high over the high and possibly
northerly middle latitude regions on 10 and 11 September. Auroral activity
should become visible over many central middle latitude regions. There
remains a moderate risk for low latitude auroral observations for 10 and 11
September. Equatorward migration of the auroral oval is in progress at the
present time.
HF propagation conditions will become degraded over the middle and high
latitude regions on 10 and 11 September. Conditions will be most severe over
the high and polar latitude regions, although significant levels of fading,
flutter and noise are likely to be observed over many middle latitude regions
as well. Low latitudes should observe mostly good to fair propagation
conditions. Notable flutter and fading will accompany paths in the evening
and early morning sectors over the low latitudes.
There is a moderate to high probability for VHF auroral backscatter
on 10 and 11 September over the middle latitudes. Low latitudes may also be
capable of sustaining some auroral backscatter communications during the late
afternoon to early morning hours.
** End of Daily Update **