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Text File  |  1988-11-09  |  9KB  |  164 lines
  1.  
  2.                 Economic Value of the Portfolio of Prospects
  3.  
  4. áááFinally¼á ß featurσ commonplacσ iε thσ investmen⌠ communit∙ migrate≤ t∩ ì
  5. áááthi≤ program«á  Yo⌡ no≈ havσ thσ abilit∙ t∩ determinσ thσ curren⌠ valuσ ì
  6. áááoµ you≥ Portfoli∩ oµ Prospects«  Thesσ economiπ measure≤ havσ lonτ beeε ì
  7. áááapplieΣ t∩ stocks¼ bonds¼ anΣ othe≥ investments¼ bu⌠ arσ jus⌠ no≈ beinτ ì
  8. áááapplieΣá t∩á determinσ thσ economiπ valuσ t∩ yo⌡ oµ ß grou≡ oµá PEOPLE«   ì
  9. áááThe∙á givσ yo⌡ aε economiπ assessmen⌠ oµ al∞ oµ thosσá economiπá event≤ ì
  10. ááátha⌠á coulΣá occur¼á adjusteΣá fo≥á thσá passagσ oµá timσá a≤á wel∞á a≤ ì
  11. áááminimum/maximuφ constraints.
  12.  
  13.  
  14.                       Overview of options at this menu:
  15. áááOptioεá ▒á establishe≤ thσ globa∞ defaul⌠ variable≤ fo≥ thi≤á analysis«  ì
  16. áááOptioεá ▓ doe≤ thσ actua∞ Aginτ Analysis«á  Option≤ │ anΣ ┤ givσ yo⌡á ß ì
  17. áááchoicσá oµá ho≈ yo⌡ wan⌠ thσ record≤ presenteΣá iεá ßá report║á  eithe≥ ì
  18. ááásorteΣá b∙á compan∙ namσ oµ prospec⌠ anΣ showinτ thσá curren⌠á Economiπ ì
  19. áááValue╗ o≥ sorteΣ iε ascending orde≥ oµ thσ curren⌠ Economiπ Value.
  20.  
  21.  
  22.                              Detail on option 1:
  23.  
  24. áááIεá optioεá ▒á oµá thσ Portfoli∩ oµ Prospec⌠ Men⌡ yo⌡á definσá thesσá ┤ ì
  25. ááávariables:
  26.  
  27.                               Global Variables:
  28.  
  29. ááá1⌐   'Plateauº valuσ fo≥ thσ Aginτ Analysis¼ iε weeks:
  30. ááá2⌐   'Floorº Ñ valuσ fo≥ thσ Aginτ Analysis:
  31. ááá3⌐   'Deca∙ Slope'¼ linea≥ o≥ logarithmic:
  32. ááá4⌐   'Half-Lifeº valuσ fo≥ thσ 'Deca∙ Slope'¼ iε weeks:
  33.    
  34.  
  35. ááá                             Globa∞ Variablσ 1:
  36. ááá                              'Plateauº value:
  37.  
  38. áááThσá 'Plateauº valuσ describe≤ thσ perioΣ oµ timσ tha⌠ passes¼á iµ any¼ ì
  39. áááwithou⌠ an∙ economiπ loss«á  If¼á fo≥ example¼á yo⌡ arσ tryinτ t∩ tracδ ì
  40. áááthσ economiπ valuσ oµ proposal≤ tha⌠ yo⌡ submit¼á you≥ experiencσ migh⌠ ì
  41. ááábσ tha⌠ fo≥ ever∙ proposa∞ tha⌠ yo⌡ submi⌠ ╕ week≤ ma∙ pas≤ beforσ you≥ ì
  42. áááprospec⌠á wil∞ evaluatσ wha⌠ yo⌡ havσ submitted«á  Iµá you≥á experiencσ ì
  43. áááshow≤ tha⌠ thi≤ ╕ weeδ perioΣ almos⌠ alway≤ occur≤ withou⌠ an∙ economiπ ì
  44. ááádeca∙á associateΣ witΦ it¼á theε eacΦ proposa∞ ha≤ aε ╕ weeδá 'Plateauº ì
  45. ááávaluσ associateΣ witΦ it« 
  46.  
  47.  
  48. áááThσá purposσá oµá thσ 'Plateauº valuσ i≤ t∩ allo≈ aε aginτá proces≤á t∩ ì
  49. áááoccu≥ whilσ reflectinτ thσ realit∙ oµ tha⌠ market║  iε man∙ industries¼ ì
  50. áááßá perioΣ oµ timσ passe≤ BEFOR┼ an∙ economiπ deca∙ caε bσá presumeΣá t∩ ì
  51. ááástart«á  Iµá yo⌡ attenΣ tradσ shows¼á ß ┤ o≥ ╢ weeδ follo≈ u≡ ma∙ occu≥ ì
  52. ááábeforσ whicΦ thσ economiπ utilit∙ oµ thosσ contact≤ begin≤ t∩ decay.
  53.  
  54. áááYo⌡ tailo≥ thσ 'Plateauº valuσ fo≥ you≥ industr∙ anΣ particula≥ se⌠á oµ ì
  55. ááácircumstances«á  Oncσá defined¼á i⌠á cause≤á thσ analysi≤ t∩á extenΣá ß ìèááá'plateauº fo≥ tha⌠ numbe≥ oµ week≤ BEFOR┼ startinτ thσ deca∙á analysis«   ì
  56. áááYo⌡ caε selec⌠ an∙ numbe≥ oµ week≤ t∩ reflec⌠ you≥ industry¼á includinτ ì
  57. áááthσ defaul⌠ valuσ oµ '0'.
  58.  
  59.  
  60. ááá                             Globa∞ Variablσ 2:
  61. ááá                                'Floorº valuσ   
  62.  
  63. áááThσá 'Floorºá valuσ i≤ thσ percentagσ yo⌡ inpu⌠ tha⌠ place≤ ß floo≥á a⌠ ì
  64. áááthσá bottoφ oµ thσ deca∙ slope«á   Iµ yo⌡ ente≥ ßá 'Floorºá value¼á thσ ì
  65. áááprograφ wil∞ sto≡ thσ deca∙ wheε i⌠ reache≤ tha⌠ level«  Thσ purposσ oµ ì
  66. áááthi≤á i≤á t∩á recognize¼á fo≥ example¼á tha⌠ regardles≤ oµ ho≈á lonτá ß ì
  67. áááproposa∞ i≤ outstanding¼ i⌠ ma∙ alway≤ havσ somσ residua∞ valuσ t∩ you«  ì
  68. áááIµá yo⌡á definσ thσ 'Floorº valuσ t∩ bσ 25Ñ fo≥ ß prospec⌠ tha⌠ ha≤á aε ì
  69. ááápotentia∞ valuσ oµ $100,000¼á theε thσ deca∙ analysi≤ wil∞ sto≡ wheε i⌠ ì
  70. áááreache≤ $25,000«     
  71.  
  72. áááNotσ tha⌠ valuσ i≤ ALWAY╙ entereΣ a≤ ß percentage¼á no⌠ ß decimal¼á anΣ ì
  73. ááátha⌠ yo⌡ caε havσ an∙ valuσ froφ ░ t∩ 99.99.
  74.  
  75.  
  76.                              Globa∞ Variablσ 3:
  77.  
  78.                     'Deca∙ Slope'¼ linea≥ o≥ logarithmic:
  79.  
  80. áááThσ 'Deca∙ Slopeº variablσ give≤ yo⌡ thσ choicσ oµ usinτ ß linea≥ deca∙ ì
  81. áááslopσ o≥ logarithmic.
  82.    
  83.  
  84. áááThσ Linea≥ slopσ describe≤ thosσ economiπ event≤ tha⌠ wil∞ declinσá thσ ì
  85. ááásamσ absolutσ amoun⌠ eacΦ week«á  If¼á fo≥ example¼á yo⌡ determinσ tha⌠ ì
  86. ááábusines≤á card≤á yo⌡á acquirσ a⌠ ß tradσ sho≈ becomσá worthles≤á iεá 1░ ì
  87. áááweeks¼á theεá yo⌡ coulΣ sa∙ the∙ loosσ 10Ñ oµ thei≥ economiπ valuσ eacΦ ì
  88. áááweek«á   Iµ proposal≤ tha⌠ yo⌡ submi⌠ becomσ worthles≤ afte≥ 2░á weeks¼ ì
  89. ááátheε yo⌡ coulΣ sa∙ the∙ loosσ 5Ñ oµ thei≥ valuσ eacΦ week«  Iµ yo⌡ worδ ì
  90. áááfo≥á ßá banδ anΣ arσ usinτ thi≤ prograφ t∩ tracδ baΣá deb⌠á collection≤ ì
  91. áááactivity¼á theεá yo⌡á havσ ß clea≥ ideß oµ ho≈ eacΦ persoε iε thσá filσ ì
  92. ááábecome≤ increasingl∙ les≤ likel∙ t∩ pa∙ giveε thσ passagσ oµ time.
  93.  
  94. áááIε additioε t∩ thσ Linea≥ slope¼á yo⌡ havσ anothe≥ choice║ logarithmic«   ì
  95. áááYo⌡ caε thinδ oµ thi≤ methoΣ a≤ beinτ ß variatioε oµ compounΣ interest«  ì
  96. áááInsteaΣá oµá principa∞á anΣá interes⌠ beinτá compoundeΣá iεá you≥á banδ ì
  97. áááaccount¼á ßá potentia∞ economiπ even⌠ sucΦ a≤ closinτ ß salσá i≤á beinτ ì
  98. áááreduceΣ o≥ decayeΣ iε thσ samσ manner«    
  99.  
  100. áááFo≥ yo⌡ mathematicians¼á thσ logarithmiπ deca∙ proces≤ is║á "thσ changσ ì
  101. áááiε quantit∙ ove≥ an∙ timσ interva∞ ..«á proportiona∞ t∩ thσ sizσ oµ thσ ì
  102. áááinterva∞ anΣ t∩ thσ averagσ valuσ oµ thσ quantit∙ ove≥ tha⌠á interval.ó   ì
  103. áááThσá logarithmiπ deca∙ proces≤ i≤ computeΣ usinτ L'Hopital'≤ Rule«á   ┴ ì
  104. ááávaluσá decay≤á exponetiall∙á iµ it≤ instantaneou≤á ratσá oµá changσá i≤ ì
  105. áááproportiona∞á t∩á it≤á instantaneou≤ value«á  Therσá arσá man∙á natura∞ ì
  106. áááprocesses¼á likσá bacteria∞á growtΦá o≥á radioactivσá decay¼á iεá whicΦ ì
  107. áááquantitie≤ increasσ o≥ decreasσ a⌠ aε "exponentia∞ rate."
  108.  
  109. áááAssuminτ aε initia∞ 'Economiπ Valueº oµ $10,000¼ n∩ 'Plateauº value¼ n∩ ìèááá'Floor'¼ anΣ ß 'Half-Lifeº oµ 1░ weeks:
  110.  
  111.  
  112.                                                       Weekly Percentage 
  113.                       Cumulative Decay: $               decline:
  114.                       
  115.                  Linear          Logarithmic        Linear    Logarithmic
  116.                  ------          -----------        ------    -----------
  117.     Week           
  118.      1            $500                $669              5%        6.7%  
  119.      2            1000                1294              5         6.24
  120.      3            1500                1877              5         5.83
  121.      4            2000                2421              5         5.44
  122.      5            2500                2928              5         5.08
  123.      6            3000                3402              5         4.73
  124.      7            3500                3844              5         4.42
  125.      8            4000                4256              5         4.13
  126.      9            4500                4641              5         3.84
  127.      10           5000                5000              5         3.59
  128.      11           5500                5334              5         3.35
  129.      12           6000                5647              5         3.12
  130.      13           6500                5938              5         2.92
  131.      14           7000                6210              5         2.72
  132.      15           7500                6464              5         2.53
  133.      16           8000                6701              5         2.37
  134.      17           8500                6922              5         2.21
  135.      18           9000                7128              5         2.06
  136.      19           9500                7320              5         1.93
  137.      20          10000                7500              5         1.79
  138.  
  139.    
  140.  
  141.  
  142. áááObservσ tha⌠ thσ logarithmiπ deca∙ i≤ accelerateΣ iε thσ beginninτá bu⌠ ì
  143. ááábegin≤ t∩ trai∞ ofµ afte≥ ß while«  A⌠ 1░ week≤ (thσ 'Half-Life')¼ the∙ ì
  144. ááábotΦ havσ thσ samσ amoun⌠ oµ accumulateΣ decay║  $5000«  
  145.  
  146. áááNotσá als∩á tha⌠á afte≥ 2░ weeks¼á thσ logarithmiπ deca∙á i≤á no⌠á 100Ñ ì
  147. ááácompleteΣ bu⌠ onl∙ 75%«á  Iε concept¼ thi≤ deca∙ ratσ wil∞ trai∞ ou⌠ t∩ ì
  148. áááinfinity«  Afte≥ 3░ weeks¼ fo≥ example¼ thσ cumulativσ deca∙ i≤ $8,750«           
  149.  
  150.  
  151.  
  152.                              Globa∞ Variablσ 4:
  153.  
  154.              'Half-Lifeº valuσ fo≥ thσ 'Deca∙ Slope'¼ iε weeks:
  155.  
  156.  
  157. áááThσ 'Halµ Lifeº i≤ defineΣ a≤ tha⌠ poin⌠ a⌠ whicΦ thσ economiπ valuσ oµ ì
  158. áááßá contac⌠ o≥ even⌠ ha≤ declineΣ t∩ halµ oµ it≤ origina∞á value«á  Thi≤ ì
  159. ááávaluσá i≤á highl∙ subjectivσ anΣ reflect≤ you≥ appraisa∞á oµá wheεá thσ ì
  160. áááeconomiπ statu≤ oµ ß proposal¼á bid¼á o≥ contac⌠ ha≤ droppeΣ t∩ halµ oµ ì
  161. áááit≤ origina∞ potentia∞ value.
  162.  
  163. áááThσá 'Halµá Lifeº i≤ useΣ b∙ thσ prograφ witΦ Globa∞á Variablσá 3¼á thσ ìèááá'Deca∙ Slope'¼ iε calculatinτ thσ weekl∙ deca∙ rate.
  164.