Shareware Overload/ShartewareOverload.cdr/busi/mftrac21.zip/MFTRACK.DOC

Text File | 1990-10-09 | 40KB | 582 lines

          +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
          +                                                             +
          +                   THE MUTUAL FUND TRACKER                   +
          +                                                             +
          +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                     Version 2.1d

                           Copyright 1989 By Keith Watkins
                             15922 Riverside Grove Drive
                              Houston, Texas 77083-5358

































      EQUIPMENT REQUIRED:

            IBM or PC compatible personal computer
            One disk drive
            Color Monitor (optional)
            Printer (optional)
      NOTE: It has been reported that if you have an Orchid Tiny Turbo 80286
            accelerator card you will need to put it in the 8088 mode for the
            program to run.


      THE THEORY:

          THE MUTUAL FUND TRACKER is based on the theory of technical
      analysis, or moving averages.  Fund prices tend to move in cyclical
      waves, up and down, as the economy and the individual fund improves
      and deteriorates.  By tracking the price of a fund, an investor can
      determine whether the trend is up or down.

          A moving average is simply the average of the fund's price over a
      specified period.  That is, a 4-week moving average is the average
      price of the fund over the last 4 weeks.  Similarly, a 30-week moving
      average is the average of the fund price over the last 30 weeks.  The
      30 week moving average will always be flatter and smoother than the
      4-week moving average for the same time period, since the 4-week
      moving average is more responsive to price fluctuations.

          One major contemporary theory used regularly in investment circles
      is technical analysis or the charting method, upon which this program
      is based.  As the price of a fund rises steadily, the 4-week moving
      average will rise also, followed eventually by the 30-week moving
      average if the rally is long enough and strong enough.

          Investments made at the beginning of a rally (as evidenced by the
      trend lines) are sold as the rally falters (again according to the
      trend lines).  The results generated by this program will not
      guarantee profits in each and every trade, but will, cut the losses on
      poor choices and allow the profits on good choices to continue to rise
      without predetermined limits.


      HOW TO GET STARTED:

          First, you need to decide which of the thousands of funds you
      wish to track and eventually add to your portfolio.  The pages of any
      financial newspaper or the business section of your daily newspaper
      will provide a staggering array of choices.  Don't get discouraged.
      There is a systematic method of choosing the best funds for your own
      portfolio.

          Decide how much risk you are willing to accept.  Certain funds
      such as utilities, food processing companies, and large oil companies
      can be relatively stable in their wave action and perform nicely on
      the charts.  Others, such as computer companies, exploratory oil
      drillers, gambling funds, and clothing retailers may be high-fliers
      today and go broke tomorrow.  This deals mostly with select funds
      and unless you go into these you probably will not need to worry about
      this factor to much but profits can be made in these groups.  In
      fact, a well rounded portfolio should contain funds from diversified
      industries with a variety of risk factors.  So you should follow a few
      stable funds and a few more volatile funds.





          The easiest way to decide which funds to track is to obtain a
      copy of a book that contains price data for most major funds for the
      past year or two.  The best is the, "SRC Red Book of 3-Trend Security
      Charts", which contains 21 months of prices, earnings and dividends,
      of over 1100 leading funds.  It is published monthly by Securities
      Research Company, 208 Newbury Street, Boston, Massachusetts, 02116,
      and is available for about $10.00.  Write them for a current price
      list.

          Review the pages of charts, searching for funds which will
      perform well with charting.  Look for even cyclical waves with no big
      one-week jumps or drops.  Small drug companies and exploratory oil
      drilling companies are notorious for sudden changes in price, due to a
      new miracle drug or a new oil discovery.  Since it is impossible with
      charts to predict such sudden changes, it is best to stay away from
      these type fund families altogether.  Stick with the ones that perform
      more evenly.

          Pick the funds you wish to track.  Be sure to look at the data on
      the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Advance/Decline
      line, New Highs, and New Lows.  This general market data will tell you
      whether you should be buying anything at all, or whether you should be
      selling.

          Using the SRC weekly charts (or others as you so choose) and a
      photocopy of a data entry form you can make with any editor, the
      painstaking part of the work begins.  Go back 60 weeks from the
      present date, and write the date of each Friday across the top of the
      data entry forms.  Down the left side, alphabetically, write the names
      of the funds you are tracking.  Across the top, put the dates of the
      last 60 Fridays.  This will probably take about 6 pages.

          Now enter the Friday closing price for the first Friday of your
      first fund.  If you gather your data from newspapers, you will be
      given the exact Friday closing price.  If you use the charts, you will
      have to interpolate to the nearest 1/4 point or 1/8 point when you use
      the charts.  This will have negligible effect on your results.  Now
      enter the Friday closing price for the second week, and third week,
      and so on until you have exhausted the data on the chart.  The most
      recent weeks will have to be filled in from the Wall Street Journal,
      Barrons, or your daily newspaper.  Now continue on for each of your
      funds.

          Once you have collected the data, you can now enter the program
      and add the funds and their associated prices.  The program will step
      you through this procedure.

          If all of this sounds like a lot of work, it is.  I therefore
      market a disk with 60 weeks of price data for the Fidelity Mutual Fund
      Family plus all the major indices.  Fidelity is not necessarily the best
      fund family to follow but they do represent a variety of industries and
      risk factors.  You may choose to purchase the most up to date disk
      available, which cost $35.00, instead of doing your own initial research.
      This disk will save you about 60-100 hours of valuable time.  If your
      time is worth a lot to you then this disk is a good investment.  See the
      SIGNUP.KIT file for the order form.

          You may then add or delete funds from this master list to fulfill
      your own requirements.  You may also use more than one set of data per
      disk and update the files without having to change floppies or
      directories.





      UPDATING THE INFORMATION:

          Every week the information needs to be updated in order to
      continue following the trend lines.  The Friday closing prices may be
      obtained from your daily newspaper and entered into the program.  How
      to do this will be discussed later.

          It is prudent to make backup copies of your data.  If your data
      disk is damaged you may be suddenly left with a fund portfolio and no
      way to manage it.  Reconstructing the data will be nearly as time
      consuming as the initial construction.  It cannot be over emphasized
      to make back up copies of your data.  If you wish to buy a
      subscription and let me update the data every week for you then you
      need not worry about this.


      UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE PROGRAM IS SAYING:

          You will notice that after 30 weeks of price data is entered for
      any fund the program will begin to generate BUY, SELL, or HOLD
      signals.  These signals are based on objective criteria built into the
      program.  A BUY signal is generated when the 4-week average is above
      the 30-week moving average and is still moving up.  A SELL signal is
      generated when the 4-week moving average is below the 12-week moving
      average and still moving down.  Any other combination will generate a
      HOLD signal.

          There is also a WATCH LIST signal.  It will occur whenever a fund
      drops more than 10% of its value in one week.  At this point you will
      want to track the fund daily to find out if you should dump it or
      hold it according to the news reports on the fund.  Sometimes, if a
      company that the fund is heavily invested in has some sudden major
      disaster in its financial outlook, you will see it.

          It is important to note, however, that no investment should be
      made unless at least four of the eight general market signals show
      positive trends.  Note that the New Lows is a reversed signal and
      should show a SELL to be a positive or buy signal.  More New Lows in
      the market signals trouble ahead.  If the Dow Jones Industrial
      Average, S&P 500, the Advance/Decline line, and New Highs say BUY and
      the New Lows say SELL, the market is in a strong bull market and you
      should quickly become fully invested.

          It is now time to review the individual funds that you are
      tracking and choose those that show a BUY signal.  Graph them, run an
      individual fund report on them, and get to know their price history.
      When you feel comfortable, BUY.  At this point hesitation will cost
      you either money or lost buying opportunities.

          Timing a sale is equally as important as timing the purchase.
      Eventually, the fund will begin to plateau and show resistance.  The
      4-week moving average may slow and turn the fund to a HOLD position.
      When the fund signals SELL, you will then have to decide what to do.
      fund prices tend to fall twice as fast as they rise.  You could even
      sell a fund when the signal shows only HOLD, hypothesizing that "you
      can't go broke by making a profit".  It may not be as big a profit as
      staying in but the risk factor increases significantly at the end of a
      rally.







      SOME SPECIAL NOTES ON THE PROGRAM:


      THE DATA ON YOUR DISK:

          Included on the program disk is historical data for funds and
      averages.  This data is old and should NOT be used for determining
      today's investment decisions.  Today's decisions must be made with
      today's price data.  The old data, however, will give you a chance to
      see how the program works and see the types of printouts and graphs
      that are available.


      THE ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:

          The Advance/Decline Moving Average is the numeric result of the
      number of advances minus the number of declines on the NYSE.  In the
      program it is suggested that this result be divided by 100.  Lets say
      1000 stocks advance and 700 decline.  The net result is 300 advances
      or +3.00 added to the previous week's result.  If 700 stocks advance
      and 1000 stocks decline the net result is 300 declines or -3.00 added
      to the previous week's result.  It is required that all numbers in the
      program be positive so you should start at some large positive number,
      say 500.  Each week's net result, divided by 100, is then added or
      subtracted to the previous result.  Even in a long decline then, this
      number will remain positive.

          Following is an example:

          Week No.                   Advances Declines Net Adder Balance
            0                                                    500.00
            1                         1,000     700   +300 +3.00 503.00
            2                           500     900   -400 -4.00 499.00
            3                           800     900   -100 -1.00 498.00
            4                         1,200     500   +700 +7.00 505.00


      PRINTER OUTPUT OF GRAPHS:

          Various graphics packages will provide "print screens" of the
      high-resolutions graphics done on-screen.  If hard copy printouts
      are required, the user must get such a package from an outside source.
      Check my BBS at 713-277-5465.  If you have purchased the data file
      option try 713-277-5577.


      NUM LOCK KEY:

          For ease of entering data, the skilled user will want to touch
      "Num Lock" on the keyboard.  This will allow use of the 10-key pad of
      numbers on the right side of the keyboard.  A 286 or 386 machine turns
      this on for you at boot-up.


      WHAT DOES THE |ABCDEF| MEAN:

          On the screen and hardcopy outputs, there is a group of columns
      with the heading "|ABCDEF|".  Associated with each fund under this
      heading are "+", "-" and "." signs.  Each signal reflects the status
      of one of the objective criteria upon which the BUY/SELL/HOLD signals
      are based.  These individual criteria are specified as follows:





      A +  Four week moving average is up from last week
      A -  Four week moving average is down from last week
      A .  There are less than 5 weeks of information so no
           determination of trend can be made

      B +  Four week moving average is above the 12 week moving average
      B -  Four week moving average is below the 12 week moving average
      B .  There are less than 12 weeks of information so no
           determination can be made

      C +  Four week moving average is above the 30 week moving average
      C -  Four week moving average is below the 30 week moving average
      C .  There are less than 30 weeks of information so no
           determination can be made

      D +  Twelve week moving average is up from last week
      D -  Twelve week moving average is down from last week
      D .  There are less than 12 weeks of information so no
           determination can be made

      E +  Twelve week moving average is above the 30 week moving average
      E -  Twelve week moving average is below the 30 week moving average
      E .  There are less than 30 weeks of information so no
           determination can be made

      F +  Thirty week moving average is up from last week
      F -  Thirty week moving average is down from last week
      F .  There are less than 30 weeks of information so no
           determination can be made

          This is really a visual guide.  To illustrate, print out any
      individual fund in the data files.  You will see the number of +
      (plus signs) increase from left to right as the fund rises and the
      number of - (minus signs) increase from right to left as the fund
      falls.  This is a quick indication of what the fund is doing.


      STARTING A NEW DATA DISK:

      To initialize a new data disk, insert a blank formatted disk in
      drive A:\ and type the word <INITIAL> and press [RETURN].
      To read data files that already exist, press [RETURN], and
      scroll to the directory you want to use.

      If you want to initialize a disk then type in INITIAL and you will be
      given this warning:

      THIS SUBROUTINE SETS ALL DATA TO ZERO ON
      DRIVE A:\.  ARE YOU SURE YOU WANT TO CONTINUE (Y/N)

      If you answer no then you return to the opening screen.  If yes then
      after you have inserted a blank formatted disk in drive A: you will
      start a new set of data files.  These files must be renamed to one of
      the existing data files.  From MFTA0A.DAT to MFTA1A.DAT so that the
      program will read it.  This way you can set up multiple disk with six
      sets of data on each disk.  This means unlimited fund tracking
      capability.  See the names of the data files that already exist to
      find out what names you may use.  It is very important that if you
      make a set of data files that you rename them as they are in respect
      to the letter.  For example if you have the file MFTA0A.DAT and you
      wish to rename it for use with the program then you would want to name
      it MFTA1A.DAT not MFTA1B or MFTA1C.  Be sure to keep the letters
      straight.




      EXAMPLE OF RENAMING FILES:


      MFTA0A.DAT   MFTA0B.DAT   MFTA0C.DAT
           ^            ^            ^
           ^            ^            ^
      These letters must not change in a rename.


      MFTA0A.DAT   MFTA0B.DAT   MFTA0C.DAT
          ^            ^            ^
          ^            ^            ^
      Only change the number to correspond to 1 through 6.

      Six sets of data is all that one disk can hold.  You can therefore set
      up one disk for the Fidelity Family or The Vanguard Family or whatever
      you wish to track.  Remember this program is meant to be a guide of
      trends and fluctuations.  You must make the absolute choice on what to
      do as far as buying or selling.


      THE MAIN MENU:

           ***********************************************************
           *                 THE MUTUAL FUND TRACKER                 *
           ***********************************************************

      CURRENT DIRECTORY: 1          MAIN MENU
      ($) WARRANTY/DISCLAIMER
      (T) Add New Dates
    * (A) Add a New Fund                       [Not Available on Demo]
    * (W) Add One Weeks Data                   [Not Available on Demo]
      (S) Print Weekly Summary
      (I) Print Individual Fund Summary
      (G) Graphs
    * (E) Edit Data                            [Not Available on Demo]
      (X) Fund Dividend Adjustment
      (D) Delete a Fund
      (R) Rename a Fund
      (F) Save Data and Quit
      (B) Save Data and Continue
      (C) Save Data and Change to a Different Directory
      (!) Exit to System and Don't Save Data
      (*) Exit to Opening Menu and Load Another Directory Without Saving Data
      (+) DOS Shell

      ENTER LETTER CHOICE:


      WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN:

      CURRENT DIRECTORY: 1

      This tells you which set of data files you are working with.  The
      number ranges from 1 to 6.

      ($) WARRANTY/DISCLAIMER

      Here you can find out how to register the program.






      (T) ADD NEW DATES

      This allows you to change or add new dates to your data files.

    * (A) ADD A NEW FUND       [Not Available on Demo]

      This lets you add a new fund to an existing set of data files.

    * (W) ADD ONE WEEKS DATA    [Not Available on Demo]

      This begins the process of updating the data for the new week.

      (S) PRINT WEEKLY SUMMARY

      Prints the weekly summery to the screen or printer.

      (I) PRINT INDIVIDUAL FUND SUMMARY

      Prints an individual summery on  one fund to the screen or printer.

      (G) GRAPHS

      Graphics the data for the fund you choose.

    * (E) EDIT DATA    [Not Available on Demo]

      Edits any price data in case you make a mistake.

      (X) FUND DIVIDEND ADJUSTMENT

      If you have a fund declare a dividend or distribution the enter the
      beginning date and enter in the amount of the dividend or distribution.

      (D) DELETE A FUND

      This deletes a current entry in the data files.  Make sure you want to
      do this.  Your data files are not changed until you save them however.

      (R) RENAME A FUND

      This will rename a fund in case they change their name.

      (F) SAVE DATA AND QUIT

      Just what it says.

      (B) SAVE DATA AND CONTINUE

      Just what it says.

      (C) SAVE DATA AND CHANGE TO A DIFFERENT DIRECTORY

      Saves the data and lets you call another set of data without having to
      leave the program.

      (!) EXIT TO SYSTEM AND DON'T SAVE DATA

      Do this if you just came in for a look around and you don't want to
      change a thing.

      (*) EXIT TO OPENING MENU AND LOAD ANOTHER DIRECTORY WITHOUT SAVING DATA

      Allows you to change to a different directory without saving data.



      (+) DOS SHELL

      Lets you go to DOS and resume where you were.


      All sub menus are self explanatory.  You should not have any trouble
      but play with the sample data.  Try all the functions.  That is what
      this old data is for.  Don't worry about the old data, delete, rename,
      change to your hearts content and learn how to use the program.


      EPILOGUE:

           Well that's all there is to it.  Have fun and enjoy!  Remember
      you are able, with this purchase of the data files, to become a member
      in The Wall Street Tracker Conference on Keith's Little Software Shop.
      Should you have any questions you can ask me there and I will be happy
      to help you.  The phone number is [phone].  If you have not yet
      been validated then leave me a comment and I will raise your level so
      that you can join this conference and share your ideas with others and
      get technical support, if you wish, for one year.  Report any bugs,
      glitches or quirks to:

                                 Keith Watkins
                             15922 Riverside Grove
                           Houston, Texas 77083-5358


      WARRANTY/DISCLAIMER:

          I make no warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including
      without limitation, any warranties of merchantability and or fitness
      for a particular purpose.  I shall not be liable for any damages,
      whether direct, indirect, special or consequential arising from a
      failure of these files to operate in the manner desired by the user.
      I shall not be liable for any damage to data or property which may be
      caused directly or indirectly by use of these files and the data
      therein.  While I make a good faith effort to ensure all data is
      correct and without error I will not be liable for the accuracy of the
      data furnished by other sources.  In no event will I be liable to you
      for any damages, including any lost profits, losses, lost savings or
      other incidental or consequential damages arising out of your use or
      inability to use these files, or for any claim by any other party.
      This Program is not intended and should not be considered investment
      advice.

          The program provided herewith is used for demonstration purposes
      only and the investor assumes all risks associated with the purchase
      and sale of funds, bonds, commodities, etc., based upon any information
      or recommendations provided by this program.  Due to the perpetual
      unpredictability of the stock market, no guarantee of profit from the
      use of this program can be made or is implied.