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1993-05-30
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Will the Macintosh Follow
the Same Path as Apple II?
by John Majka - from Access
"Mene mene tekel upharsin" was written on the wall of the castle of
Nebuchadnezzar, King of Babylon, and surrounding territory, a number
of years ago by an invisible hand. Nobody could guess its meaning
until Daniel came along and told the King that his kingdom would
soon come to an end. Today we still get messages and sometimes by a
not too invisible hand.
On December 24, 1991, I received a booklet from Apple Computer, Inc.
entitled, "Blueprint for the Decade--an overview of apple technology
and strategies." This booklet is supposed to let third party
developers of software and hardware know that Apple's plans are in
the 1990's. Mostly the booklet describes plans for System 7,
networking, Object Oriented Programming System (OOPS), and other
software. There is approximately a two-page section on hardware
about Apple's new Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC) CPU.
It is described as a RISC-based Macintosh and refers to the machine
now in use as a 680x0 based Macintosh. It has less instructions than
a Complete Instruction Set CPU (CISC). Because it can get by with
fewer instructions, RISC computers are faster than CISC. Today most
engineering workstations use RISC technology.
After reading through two pages about the RISC based Macintosh, how
it will emulate the real 680x0 machine, and how Apple will give you
a "smooth migration path" to it, there is a very interesting and
familiar paragraph: "Many Apple customers will find their computer
needs are sufficiently met by the 680x0 CISC architecture and
built-in capabilities of the System 7 Macintosh. That is why we
clearly anticipate introducing a new 680x0 desktop portable, and
low-cost systems well after the initial release of RISC-based
systems. Because we are committed to the coexistence of the two
platforms, we are ensuring that work environments and networks can
routinely mix 680x0 and RISC-based Macintosh models... Despite the
excitement surrounding the introduction of a RISC-based Macintosh,
680x0-based Macintosh will remain viable for many years to come."
That should warm the cockles of your heart. Apple is telling us
don't worry, be happy. The new Macintosh computer you just bought
"Will remain viable for many years to come." Of course, this is from
the same people who brought you "Apple II Forever" and "we will
manufacture and support the Apple II as long as people want to buy
it." But, Apple doesn't advertise the Apple II computer. We have also
heard that while Apple encourages dealers to carry IBM-PC clones, it
also discourages dealer from carrying the Apple II line. So if people
don't know about them, and dealers won't carry them, how are you
supposed to buy an Apple II?
Based on the company's past history, this is what will probably
happen in the not too distant future. Long before the RISC is
introduced, Apple will ask current third-party developers of
software and hardware to help develop for the RISC computer. The
developers will probably jump at the chance, because it will be a
new machine, and they'll make a lot of money. The new owners will
need new software. What's written in the two pages in Apple's
booklet about the RISC-based Macintosh is the first step. What Apple
is telling us is: It's coming. The RISC operating system will be
entirely different from the Macintosh system. Some developers are
large enough to support two or more computer systems, But since most
developers aren't very big and can't afford to spend time on two
entirely different computers, they will have to decide on which one
--the 680x0 or the RISC-based Macintosh. Their decision will
obviously be based on sales and profit. With Apple's support for the
RISC technology, this could mean software for the 680x0 Macintosh
will dry up.
And you probably won't see the 680x0 Macintosh advertised anymore.
Without promotion and with Apple's expected encouragement of the
RISC-based Macs, more developers will drop out of the 680x0 market
and dealers will stop selling them. Very soon after the RISC- based
machine is introduced, your 680x0-based Macintosh will likely
become an "Orphan" computer--just like the Apple II.
About the author--
John Majka is acting president of Alliance International
Incorporated, a group whose goal is promoting the preservation of
Apple II.