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Monster Media 1993 #2
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1993-08-05
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SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP030
ARLP030 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA July 30, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs
Solar flux peaked on July 23 at 110, and is now dropping again.
Geomagnetic conditions have been very stable, but there is the
possibility of an upset from a recurring coronal hole around the
time this bulletin is released. The next disturbed period in the
forecast is around August 7.
Activity will continue to drop, and should bottom out around
August 9 when the flux hits 80. There may be a new low in solar
flux for this side of the cycle. After that the solar flux won't
pass 100 again until around August 20.
Although low activity has not helped the higher frequencies,
propagation on lower bands has been aided by the quiet geomagnetic
conditions. The author enjoyed an evening of exceptional signals
into Europe and Africa from Seattle on 20 meters on the evening of
July 28. The path projection this week will be for this Sunday,
from Seattle to Botswana, looking at the conditions that the author
experienced over the same route a few days earlier.
The free solar cycle graph program from WA4TTK is now available.
To run it you will need an MS DOS PC with VGA or EGA display. It is
being posted to a number of bulletin boards around the country, with
the file name of SOL24-1.ZIP. It should be on the ARRL BBS soon,
and it is also available by mail from the author. Send a formatted
3.5 inch or 5.25 inch diskette, high or low density, to Scott Craig,
409 Jessie Drive, Nashville, TN 37211. Be sure to include a stamped
addressed return mailer.
This program displays the last few years of this solar cycle, and
allows the user to add data from this weekly bulletin, as well as
display different moving averages. It is a very interesting and
useful tool. Thanks to WA4TTK for making this free program
available.
Sunspot Numbers from July 22 through 28 were 76, 97, 92, 80, 82, 98
and 72, with a mean of 85.3. 10.7 cm flux was 108, 110, 106, 102,
104, 103 and 102, with a mean of 105.
The path this week from Seattle to Botswana on 80 meters should be
open from 0300z to 0500z, peaking around 0430z. 40 meters will be
available from 0130z to 0530z, with the best time from 0400z to
0430z. 30 meters should be open around 0130z or 0200z and again
from 0430z to 0600z. 20 meters should be best from 0530z to 0700z.
18 meters may have a weak opening on most days around 1730 to 1800z,
and on some days from 0530 to 0600z. 10, 12 and 15 meters do not
look good over this path.
/EX