home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
Monster Media 1994 #1
/
monster.zip
/
monster
/
MAGAZINE
/
DJ123193.ZIP
/
UK.TXT
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
1993-10-31
|
4KB
|
63 lines
UNION CARBIDE
10/28/93
10/27/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr
Union Carbide 19.50 20-13 12/4 0.90 1.25 15.6 0.17 0.08
1. Initial concern over quality of third quarter earnings has receded.
2. Sustainable dramatic improvement IN CARBON PRODUCTS BUSINESS OFSETS
CONTINUING EHTYLENE-CHAIN WEAKNESS
3. CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS REMAINS NEGATIVE AND MAY BECOME MORE SO FROM
PLANS TO STEP-UP CAPITAL SPENDING IN 1994.
4. VALUATION REASONABLE. EARNINGS MOMENTUM IS POSITIVE, CYCLICAL UPSIDE
REMAINS UNTAPPED FOR NOW. THE OVER 4% YIELD HAS LITTLE ASSOCIATED RISK AND
CASH FLOW MULTIPLES ARE VERY REASONABLE.
5. THE BIGGEST RISK TO THE STOCK IS DILUTIVE ACQUISITIONS AND/OR STEPPED-
UP REINVESTMENT IN COMMODITIES BUSINESSES WITHOUT NEAR-TERM PAYBACK.
1. MAJOR CARBON PRODUCTS TURNAROUND. This is an $800 million revenue, 50/50
Joint Venture with Mitsubishi. Prices and margins have been terrible for the
last 5 to 6 years. However, there have been major global consolidations this
year, following which prices were raised in the 3Q 1993 by 40% from $2,000 per
ton to $2,800 per ton. This brings prices back to where they were a decade
ago. Profits have returned to over $5 million after tax in the 3Q (Union
Carbide share) following breakeven in 2Q and losses year ago. Analysts believe
the swing is sustainable and that there could be further upside say to the
$7-$8 million per quarter level, that is $30 million annualized. This
represents a POTENTIAL EPS SWING OF $0.20 PER SHARE AFTER TAX FULLY DILUTED FOR
UNION CARBIDE STOCK FROM 1992 TO 1994.
2. OPERATING PROBLEMS Carbide says ethylene oxide plant start up problems
remain greater than expected, have hurt 3Q income by $0.05 per share and will
hurt 4Q by $0.04 per share. Carbide expects this problem to be fully resolved
by the end of 4Q 1993. Year over year 1994 ethylene oxide earnings swing could
be $0.18 per share according to Carbide ($0.09 from absence of these start up
costs, $0.05 from improved catalysts, and $0.04 from lower fixed cost now that
the Montreal plant has been shut down). We doubt all $0.18 can be realized on
the bottom line given unfavorable industry trends but at least $0.10 should be
possible.
3. CAPITAL SPENDING. Carbide expects capital spending to jump to $412 million
in 1993 versus 1992 number of $359 million, and a further increase to $440
million in 1994. In addition, investments in affiliated businesses are
expected to be $90 million in 1993 and $60 million in 1994 compared to $69
million in 1992. Debt levels are expected to rise to 44% of capitalization
versus 41% today. Part of this investment is to replace railcars and other
equipment that is currently being leased. Union Carbide expects 400-600 basis
points reduction in expense from such refinancing on a base of $200 million in
1993 and 1994, collectively.
Union Carbide indicated a strong desire to participate in industry
consolidations. Carbide has no intentions of shutting any of its capacity but
rather is looking for one of two things: first, a deal with a weaker foreign
producer that allows that producer's capacity to be shut and replaced by new
capacity using Carbide's technology; and/or, second, utilizing Carbide
technology as a way to pay for equity in new joint ventures to build new
capacity in energy rich locations throughout the world.