home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
Monster Media 1994 #1
/
monster.zip
/
monster
/
MAGAZINE
/
DJ123193.ZIP
/
TX.TXT
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
1994-01-01
|
4KB
|
77 lines
TEXACO
12/08/93
12/07/93 52-Wk-Rng FY/Q EPS93 EPS94 PE94 NxtQtr LyQtr
Texaco Inc. 62.88 69-57 12/3 4.15 4.80 13.1 1.00 1.17
1. Analysts continue to estimate Texaco's net per share at $4.15 and $4.80 for
1993 and 1994; their 1994 estimate will be vulnerable if oil prices do not
average $17 to $18 per barrel. Analysts rate Texaco a trading buy; the rating
is at odds with an oil market that can only be called ugly but they feel that
Texaco at its current price represents an outstanding value. The risk in the
stock seems to be in time, not so much price.
2. Analysts attended Texaco's annual meeting held yesterday in White Plains.
Analysts have attended these meetings for many years and seem to have found
yesterday's to be the most forward-looking and the most focused on growth
prospects and potential. Analysts believe Texaco has fashioned a strong and
cohesive strategic framework for the future.
3. The core of Texaco's growth potential centers on its production profile.
The outlook for production growth is excellent. Texaco anticipates flat
domestic production, both for oil and gas, with a number of areas in the
foreign side to provide its overall growth of 2% per year or higher.
Particular areas for growth include the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi
Arabia and Kuwait, the U.K. North Sea, and Indonesia. Beyond these, Texaco has
longer-term potential in Australia (the Gorgon field, a potential 10 trillion
cubic feet plus LNG project), China (several leases which could be very
interesting), and Russia. As to the latter, Texaco's key prospect is the Timan
Pechora development, in the northwest part of Russia, reasonably close to
Murmansk. This area has been drilled quite extensively by the Russians in the
past. Texaco has worked out production sharing arrangements and would
basically supply the capital and expertise to develop the area, which consists
of a large number of prospects and estimated reserves in the area of over 2
billion barrels. Texaco still needs several critical approvals, including that
of Parliament. This is a prospect for the late 1990's. In all, Texaco's
upstream business is view as underappreciated and as a key part of the outlook
for the company over the next several years.
4. On the refining/marketing side, strategy in the U.S. and Europe is to
sustain operations and lower costs. However, in the Far East (where Texaco
operates through its 50% interest in Caltex), focus is clearly on growth and
Caltex is in a major ramp-up in capital expenditures, principally in refining
(a grass-roots Thai refinery is the principal project but there is other
important upgrading/construction going on at Singapore and in the Phillipines).
These projects are to capitalize on above-average demand growth over the
near-term in the Tiger economies. For the long-term, Caltex is clearly eyeing
ways to establish itself in China, IndoChina, and possibly India.
5. On the financial side, Texaco indicated that it was comfortable with a
total debt to debt plus equity ratio of 40% but its target would be in the 35%
area. Dividend growth was hinted at but not promised; it was conditioned on
growth in earnings.
6. Analysts have watched Texaco emerge from the cellar position among the
international oils some 15 years ago to an above average position today. The
company has clearly come a long way and has formulated an underappreciated but
very attractive outlook. Costs are competitive to low, its volume outlook is
above average, and Texaco has always been cost- conscious. Company specific
factors present a good picture.
7. Texaco common has the highest yield in the international oil group and
sells at the largest discount to asset value. It also sells at modestly below
average multiples of earnings and cash flow. On the other side of the ledger,
its earnings are perceived, correctly, as being senstive to the level of oil
prices and oil markets are dismal at present. Still, this company will be a
principal beneficiary once markets reverse. Analysts' main attraction to the
stock is its fundamental secular outlook.