Hairs were split in six languages at the Cairo population conference last week as delegates parsed their way to a compromise on abortion. Consensus rules at United Nations conclaves, so a Vatican-led handful of countries held the meeting hostage.
But in the real world, it is bigness that counts. What will determine the shape and distribution of the global population after Cairo will depend, above all, on what happens in a few big countries in the next few years.
If China had grown at the same rate as India over the past decade, the world would have 70 million more people today. India is due to add 500 million people and overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2040. But another half-billion lives hang in the balance. These are the extra Indians who will be born, the World Bank estimates, if India delays 15 years in reaching the two-child family that eventually brings zero growth.
Success and failure. Five other countries that hold the key to population stabilization are Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil and Nigeria. Pakistan and Nigeria have been notable failures so far. Both are set to double in size over the next 30 years and could treble without urgent action. The other three are family planning success stories that were seized on at the conference not only for inspiration but for mutual aid. Ten developing countries from three continents have formed a South- South partnership to provide family planning advice to faster- growing neighbors, with seed money from the World Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation. What could make this initiative work is the power of example plus some healthy competition. If Bangladesh can do it, why not Pakistan?
