As the intelligence analysts who failed to anticipate his 1990 invasion of Kuwait can attest, it's not easy to predict what Iraq's Saddam Hussein is going to do. That's why Clinton administration officials got nervous last week when U.S. satellites spotted two divisions of Iraqi Republican Guard troops heading south toward Kuwait's border. Although no wider mobilization was underway, President Clinton took no chances and swiftly ordered the carrier George Washington and other forces into the Persian Gulf region. Up to 15,000 troops at home were placed on alert. "On the face of it," said one official, "the Iraqi military action makes no sense." Analysts suspected that Hussein wanted to intimidate the United Nations Security Council into lifting sanctions that are grinding Iraq's economy into the desert. If so, declared U.N. Ambassador Madeleine Albright, the gambit "will have exactly the opposite effect." A vote on extending sanctions is likely this week.
Iraqi opposition groups claimed that Hussein had been challenged by frustrated Iraqi officers. Provoking an international confrontation could be his way of uniting the military behind him. Whatever Hussein's motive, the White House is keeping a wary eye on the man who never ceases to surprise.
