The Clinton administration's preparations to reinstate ousted Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide by force, if necessary, can only go so far. International coalitions can be assembled. Invasion troops can be locked and loaded. A follow-up force to secure the aftermath can be rounded up. But the invasion option still has problems.
Congress and the public remain sharply divided over the wisdom of sending the Marines in. With the pressure of Haitians taking to their boats fading, public support for an invasion is tenuous. One poll indicated that while 56 percent of the public would support intervention to stop a large exodus of boat people, only 39 percent favored action to restore democracy. Both the White House and the Pentagon are preoccupied with the growing military operation in Rwanda. And the administration has yet to decide where to get the $150 million or more it would have to contribute to the $500 million rapid-reconstruction program that would be required in the first year.
Haiti's junta, meanwhile, is busy organizing November elections in an effort to weaken the international community's resolve. The generals also are orchestrating an image of popular support. Anti-American marchers took to the streets on last week's 79th anniversary of the last U.S. intervention, in 1915. "Hit me and I may forget, but I will always carry the mark," read one somewhat unintimidating sign.
