There was the president of the United States in the cavernous marble Syrian presidential palace, engaging in what the professionals call "public diplomacy" but what others might call getting roughed up. Clinton had taken a risk by coming to Syria, the first visit here by an American president in 20 years, and his host, President Hafez Assad, was being decidedly unhelpful. First, he refused to condemn the recent suicide bus bombing in Tel Aviv as he had promised Clinton -- twice -- just moments earlier in private; then he claimed that Syria, still on America's list of nations supporting terrorism, had nothing to do with terrorism at all.
After last week's signing of the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty, Syria's leader remains the odd man out of Middle East peace. Assad engages in the politics of exasperation, wearing down opponents, often dragging senior American officials into six-hour marathon negotiating sessions. American officials say Assad believes Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is serious about peace, and he therefore figures that he can hold out for Israel to agree to a faster withdrawal from the strategic Golan Heights than the four years now being proposed by Jerusalem. Israel seized the heights in the 1967 Six-Day War.
What Assad can't obtain by stalling, analysts say, he gambles he can win by supporting terrorist violence. Syria continues to back proxy warfare waged by the Islamic militant Hezbollah along both sides of Israel's northern border with Lebanon -- rockets smashed into northern Israel the day the treaty with Jordan was signed last week. It also still shelters 10 Palestinian rejectionist groups in Damascus. What's more, Assad has taken to heart Henry Kissinger's 1970s adage that Syria remains the key to regional peace. As part of his self-image as premier Arab nationalist, he will not be rushed in dealing with his adversary.
But many Arab countries are establishing links with Israel, and others are likely to follow. If Syria is to obtain Western financial assistance as part of a peace deal, Assad knows he cannot bully potential peacemakers. And he cannot count on an indefinite outstretched hand from Rabin. The prime minister heads a fragile political coalition that could be replaced or forced into a power-sharing arrangement with opposition parties that reject concessions to Syria. Foreign Minister Shimon Peres says that for domestic political reasons, a deal needs to be struck by next summer.
After talks with Assad in Damascus last week, senior Clinton administration officials insisted that the presidential visit would speed negotiations, making a breakthrough possible within the next four to six months. Secretary of State Warren Christopher plans to return to the region after November 20 for another round of shuttle diplomacy. American officials agree with Israel's Peres that the longer talks drag on, the harder it will be to achieve peace. The next move, they insist, must be Assad's.
