by Bruce B. Auster; Robin Knight; Fred Coleman; Samantha Power; Tim Zimmermann; Linda Fasulo; Richard Z. Chesnoff
Retired Gen. Colin Powell never thought much of plans to send American ground troops to Bosnia: "We do deserts, not mountains," the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs once said.
For three years, two U.S. presidents have heeded Powell, seeking to contain the carnage in the Balkans without ordering Army grunts and Marine infantry into Bosnia's mud and snow. War has a knack, however, for upsetting the best-laid plans. Under fire from NATO allies France and Britain, which are unhappy that Washington has refused to commit soldiers to the front lines, the Clinton administration has promised to send in the troops rather than risk further dividing NATO. Now American forces could see action, perhaps as soon as the new year, if any of three scenarios unfolds:
Retreat. Last week, President Clinton approved a plan that would commit perhaps 20,000 U.S. troops to a NATO force that, if called upon, would move about 23,000 beleaguered United Nations peacekeepers out of Bosnia. The operation could take up to five months to complete, Pentagon officials estimate.
The lightly armed peacekeepers of the United Nations Protection Force(UNPROFOR) are under increasing pressure from Bosnian Serbs. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said last week that the situation for the peacekeepers was "untenable" and toldhis National Assembly that withdrawal "is no longer improbable." British officials, however, caution that withdrawal is not imminent and definitely would not come during intense new diplomatic efforts to end the Bosnian crisis.
Lift and strike. Republican Sen. Robert Dole and incoming Speaker Newt Gingrich have called for lifting the U.N. arms embargo against the warring parties and following up with a wider bombing campaign against the Serbs. But Pentagon generals, recalling Vietnam, fear that the war could not be ended from the air. Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Republican Sen. John McCain have cautioned that a bombing campaign could drag hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers into the conflict. What's more, Britain, France, Canada and others warn that if the Republican-led Congress opts to lift the embargo, they will pull out their peacekeepers and blame the results on America.
Peace. If, against all odds, a settlement is reached that ends the fighting between Bosnia's Serbs and Muslims, the United States has pledged to send up to 25,000 troops to keep the peace. But diplomatic efforts to end the war, Juppe admitted, have reached "a total dead end."
America's refusal until now to send ground troops to Bosnia has split NATO. France's Juppe expressed contempt for "governments that want to give us lessons when they have not lifted one little finger to put even one man on the ground." Now, with the peacekeepers and NATO unity in danger, Washington has a new attitude. "This is what allies are for," says a senior Pentagon official. "We have a vital national interest in the preservation of this alliance."
If France and Britain, which have the largest troop contingents in UNPROFOR, decide to call their troops home, NATO then will have to undertake an extraordinarily complicated military operation. This week, Secretary of Defense William Perry will review plans to evacuate U.N. forces when he meets with NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
A crucial variable is whether the UNPROFOR troops would be permitted to leave peacefully. Both Serbs and Muslims could disrupt withdrawal: In November, for instance, the commander of a 785-strong Canadian infantry battalion decided to undertake a tactical retreat from the central Bosnian town of Visoko after 55 of his soldiers were seized by Bosnian Serbs, who were also lobbing shells into his headquarters. After mustering their vehicles, the Canadians were blocked from leaving for days by Muslim government forces afraid they were witnessingthe start of a generalUNPROFOR withdrawal. A full-scale pullout ofthe thousands of U.N. troops -- who hail from 36 nations -- scattered among scores of isolated hilltops is bound to be dogged by similar problems. Senior generals at the Pentagon, for instance, fear that Muslim forces might attack departing troops and then lay the blame on the Serbs. The Serbs are already holding some 300 U.N. troops hostage.
If forces must fight their way out, plans call for the first-ever deployment of NATO's Rapid Reaction Corps, with up to nine 4,000-man combat brigades, of which perhaps half would be American. The U.S. troops would be drawn from Army divisions in Germany and Marine units operating offshore in the Adriatic. France, with 3,700 peacekeepers in Bosnia, plans to put in 5,000 more men "to limit the risks on departure," says a French military source. Britain plans to contribute an armored brigade.
Getting NATO troops, with their tanks and armored personnel carriers, on the ground in Bosnia could prove difficult, however. The quickest route would be by air to Sarajevo, but Serbian forces have shut down its airport in the past. Once there, the Americans would find few good ways out. The likeliest exit is along the Route Diamond from central Bosnia toward the Croatian port of Split. But winter weather makes Bosnia's mountainous roads almost impassable; more important, dozens of key bridges have been destroyed. A massive airlift would leave troops vulnerable to attack, since all airports are in range of Serbian artillery. Rail lines are also problematic, alternately running through Serbian-and Muslim-held territory. With sufficient cover, U.S. Marine forces could ferry UNPROFOR troops and equipment by helicopter from Bosnia to amphibious assault ships off the Croatian coast. Plans call for removing both U.N. troops and their equipment, including some 8,000 vehicles and thousands of tons of supplies.
If withdrawal becomes necessary, a barbaric war will turn still uglier. Since 1992, UNPROFOR has helped to save hundreds of thousands of lives in Bosnia; it provides security for relief agencies feeding 2.5 million people. America and its allies would also likely face a wider war: Serbian forces would almost certainly control Sarajevo's airport. Muslim enclaves surrounded by Serbian troops, including Srebrenica, where the U.N. disarmed the Muslims, would likely fall. And Croatia's foreign minister, Mate Granic, told U.S. News that if U.N. troops leave Bosnia, "we will ask UNPROFOR to withdraw from Croatia immediately."
What would the West do then? Without peacekeepers on the ground, the British and the French might no longer be able to fend off efforts by Dole and Gingrich to lift the arms embargo and bomb the Serbs. In this war of unintended consequences, where every solution leads to new trouble, America and its allies are now treading on thin Balkan ice indeed.
Stranded NATO may have to evacuate 23,000 U.N. peacekeepers, many from isolated pockets throughout Bosnia.
Rescuers Marines based at sea could ferry troops and equipment by helicopter. Army and other NATO forces from Europe would safeguard a withdrawal.
Barriers Mountainous terrain, winter weather and downed bridges makes road travel difficult; rail lines will be a key withdrawal routes.
USN&WR -- Basic data: Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
