Can the National Congress transform itself into a government for South Africans?
by Eric Ransdell, Jerelyn Eddings
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In his first public address after 27 years in prison, Nelson Mandela declared: "I stand here before you not as a prophet, but as a humble servant of you, the people." In later speeches, Mandela expanded on the theme, describing himself as a humble member of the African National Congress, which was founded in 1912 to fight for the rights of South Africa's black majority. Now the world's most famous political prisoner is poised to become South Africa's first black president.
This week's historic all-race elections also are almost certain to confirm Mandela's ANC as the majority party in South Africa's new government of national unity. With last week's 11th-hour decision by rival Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi to enter the contest, the threat of civil war that has plagued the four-year transition to democracy has receded. Now many relieved South Africans are turning their attention to the new government that will lead their country through what could prove to be the toughest transition of all.
The coming tests. With pre-election opinion polls forecasting a 52 to 67 percent ANC majority, the party that brought down apartheid now stands to inherit its bitter legacy of violence, unemployment, homelessness, illiteracy and economic mismanagement. The success or failure of the so-called new South Africa will depend not only on Mandela's performance as president but also on the rest of the ANC leadership and on the organization's ability to transform itself from an armed black liberation movement into a government for all South Africans.
Despite his claim to be a mere servant of his party, Mandela must shoulder the heaviest burden. When the former lawyer emerged from prison in February 1990, Mandela used his influence, his position and his long-standing friendships with many of the ANC's exiled leaders, including his former law partner Oliver Tambo, to bridge the gaps between the ANC's external wing, its internal United Democratic Front and long-jailed leaders like himself.
With Mandela's strong support, Cyril Ramaphosa, the leader of South Africa's powerful National Union of Mineworkers, was elected secretary general at the ANC's 1991 national congress, and thanks largely to Mandela's evenhandedness, the movement's top leadership is almost evenly divided between "internals" and "externals." Mandela also has convinced both blacks and whites that the ANC is sincere in its efforts to negotiate with the architects of apartheid, and he has sold unpopular political concessions to militants at all levels of the ANC.
But the new government of national unity, which will include everyone from Afrikaners in search of a white homeland to the radical Pan-Africanist Congress, will pose an even tougher test of the 75-year-old Mandela's bridge building abilities and his knack for creating consensus where none existed. Although a survey commissioned by the Weekly Mail newspaper last December found that 68 percent of the country's leading businessmen favor Mandela as president, he has largely failed to bring whites into the ANC fold. ANC sources say they expect to win only 2 percent of the white vote.
With an authoritarian streak akin to that of an English headmaster, a propensity for unauthorized policy statements and a sometimes obstinate belief in the rightness of his chosen cause, Mandela has often found himself at odds with the rest of the ANC leadership. Much of his ire has been directed at State President F.W. de Klerk, whom he called a "criminal" on the eve of their Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo. Sources close to Mandela say such attacks are born out of frustration and a deep-seated belief that de Klerk has done little to stop the violence that has claimed 13,000 black lives since 1990. Yet with de Klerk as his likely deputy president, Mandela will have to temper such outbursts if his government of national unity is to live up to its name.
Free of bitterness. Despite his 27 years in prison, the persecution of his friends and family and the subsequent collapse of his marriage, Mandela has shown no bitterness. As Nobel Prize- winning author Nadine Gordimer wrote last year: "He has borne all of this, it is evident, not only because the cause of freedom in South Africa for his people has been the breath of his life, but because he is that rare human being for whom the human family is his family."
Mandela's estranged wife, Winnie, however, remains one of the most divisive forces within the ANC. Her political rebirth late last year as head of the Women's League and her No. 31 position on the ANC's national electoral list make her a candidate for the new government's 27-member cabinet. Attacking what she perceives to be an increasingly middle-class ANC leadership has won her a huge following among the urban poor and dispossessed. If the ANC fails to deliver on its promises, she will be a lightning rod for black anger and dissatisfaction. As she warned during a campaign rally last week: "I will lead the fight against my own government."
Her influence is sure to be felt during the upcoming battle for the ANC's No.2 slot between foreign affairs director Thabo Mbeki and Ramaphosa, whose ongoing feud with Mrs. Mandela is an open secret. The future of Joe Slovo, the head of the ANC-allied South African Communist Party, is another question. The Lithuanian-born Slovo, who is No. 4 on the ANC list, has been mentioned for a variety of portfolios. He remains a key ANC strategist, although his party's influence on ANC policy has waned since the 1993 assassination of its popular general secretary, Chris Hani.
A split between the ANC and its other main ally, the 750,000- strong Congress of South African Trade Unions, is more likely. Recent appeals by Slovo and Ramaphosa for a moratorium on strikes have met with fierce resistance from COSATU.
As the ANC's point man on economics, Trevor Manuel, a founder of the United Democratic Front in the Western Cape province, will help determine whether the organization continues to move from socialism toward free markets. Manuel has tempered his militancy over the last four years and now enjoys favorable relations with leading white businessmen. Finance Minister Derek Keys, considered de Klerk's most apolitical appointment, may retain his post.
Economics also will play a major role in the choice of a new foreign minister, whose main brief will be reintegrating South Africa into the world economy. Analysts believe Mbeki is the front-runner to lead negotiations with world trade officials, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank if he fails in his bid to be deputy president. If not, incumbent Pik Botha could be asked to continue his run as the world's longest-serving foreign minister.
Battle for defense. Minister of defense promises to be a contentious appointment. Joe Modise, a leader of the ANC guerrilla army Umkhonto we Sizwe, and communist Ronnie Kasrils both have won the respect of South African generals during negotiations on integrating the armed forces. But ANC leaders consider the national police force untrustworthy, and a compromise candidate could be former Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Steyn, who took early retirement last year after authoring an explosive report on security service collaboration with right- wing extremists.
The toughest of South Africa's new regional government jobs will fall to former intelligence chief Jacob Zuma, the ANC's leading Zulu and its candidate for the premiership in war-torn Natal. Zuma is said to enjoy good relations with Zulu King Goodwill Zwelethini and Inkatha moderates, who both played an instrumental role in Buthelezi's about-face on boycotting the elections.
The ANC remains as idealistic as ever: It has decided that its politicians will take pay cuts and refuse governmental perks so as not to alienate themselves from their impoverished supporters. But that h
