TIME - Man of the Year/CompactPublishing-TimeMagazine-TimeManOfTheYear-Win31MSDOS.iso/moy/083192/08319926.000

Text File | 1993-04-08 | 5.2 KB | 109 lines

                                                                                THE U.S. CAMPAIGN, Page 46

THE POLITICAL INTEREST

Trouble in Paradise


By Michael Kramer


    This was not the "Four more years" crowd. These were
defectors -- eight prominent Republican activists who had never
strayed before but were about to now. They had attended
G.O.P.conventions in the past; but as George Bush accepted their
party's nomination in Houston, they were 1,400 miles from the
action, watching on television. They chuckled at the laugh lines
but mostly grimaced. They were all business, and they were
taking notes. In 12 hours, they would publicly endorse Bill
Clinton, and they said they were eager for fodder -- or even,
as several mused, "for something that might turn" them "from
this course." They didn't hear it.


    On paper, this particular group of turncoats was just one
of 17 similar organizations around the country that within
hours of the President's speech would confirm their rumored
disaffection -- the timing of their crossovers having been
quietly coordinated by the Clinton campaign. But these folks
were different; they live in Orange County, California, the
wealthy citadel of conservative Republicanism that was home to
John Wayne, a place, the Duke once joked, where "due process is
a bullet."

    Before the polling gap between the two candidates
tightened last week, Bush's aides said privately that California
was lost. Clinton's 30-point lead there was deemed
insurmountable, and even in Orange County the Democrats held a
seven-point advantage. But California has 54 electoral votes (a
full fifth of the 270 required for victory), and history alone
will force the G.O.P. to reconsider: since 1880, no Republican
has captured the White House without winning California -- and
no Republican in modern times has taken the state without
amassing a huge plurality in Orange County. In 1988, Bush's
Orange plurality of 317,000 votes represented 90% of his
statewide margin.

    But paradise is in trouble. "Forever, or so it seems,"
says sociologist Mark Baldassare, who has studied Orange County
for 10 years, "this place was on the steepest of upward curves.
But today, with every index down, the people who thought they
were immune to recessions, the Republican white collar workers,
have been caught. Bush will likely carry the county again, but
if he doesn't get a 300,000-vote plurality here, there's no way
he'll take California." And that, says Representative Robert
Dornan, one of the county's five Congressmen, "is iffy at best,
unless there is a measurable and perceived economic upturn."

    It's "not just the economy," says Anita Mangels, one of
the Orange Eight. "Until Clarence Thomas, I've voted Republican
despite being pro-choice. Now the Supreme Court is only one vote
away from outlawing abortion, and the Houston convention showed
that that's what will happen if Bush is back. A majority of
Orange Republicans are pro-choice, and this issue is finally
resonating with them." It's "not just the economy," says
Harriett Wieder, an Orange County supervisor. "I have to deal
with the growing number of white collars who are crowding our
emergency rooms. We need national health care, and Bush doesn't
get it."

    But it's mostly the economy. The Orange Eight are led by
Roger Johnson and Kathryn Thompson. Johnson runs Western
Digital, a Fortune 500 computer-parts manufacturer; Thompson is
the county's second largest real estate developer and a former
member of Team 100, the superexclusive organization of wealthy
Republican fat cats. Since 1988, Thompson has poured almost
$200,000 into G.O.P. campaigns. "I spoke to the President about
the economy last fall, and he told me there was no recession,"
Thompson says. "He had said that publicly, but he knows me, and
when he said it to me privately, I couldn't believe it. So I
hosted two gatherings for Clinton in the hope of getting Bush
to focus." The only focus Thompson has noticed has been
unwelcome. In Houston last Tuesday, Representative Dornan told
me, "Thompson wants to play hardball, O.K. But she better watch
out, or she may find her business hurt."

    Thompson seemed subdued as she watched Bush last Thursday,
but she and Johnson went ballistic when the President crowed
about homeowners refinancing their mortgages. "That's an
achievement?" Johnson said incredulously. "People are losing
income, so they have to refinance. The guy doesn't have a clue."

    If the Orange Eight were unimpressed, they are not
optimistic. They know their neighbors, and Johnson and Thompson
predict Bush will recover much of his support in the county. "I
can see how that speech could work well for him here," says
Johnson. "That and whatever else he comes up with in the next
two months," says Thompson. "He's real good at sounding good."
As their voices trailed off, the last of a squadron of F-18
fighters flew low over the Pacific outside Thompson's home on
its way to a landing at a nearby military base. ``They're
practicing their night stuff a lot more these days," contended
Thompson. "Yeah," said Johnson, shaking his head, "it's like it
was right before the Gulf War."