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                                                                                WORLD, Page 32

RUSSIA

Yeltsin's Enemies


Communists, ultra-nationalists, rival reformers and disgruntled
soldiers are all breathing down the President's neck

By JAMES CARNEY/MOSCOW -- With reporting by Frank Melville/London
and Jay Peterzell/Washington


    Warnings of a coming dictatorship have been as common in
Moscow this winter as street-corner complaints about high
prices. Down through Russia's history, authoritarianism has been
the rule, reform and democracy the rare -- and brief --
exception. For that reason alone, the odds seem to dictate that
President Boris Yeltsin's efforts to install a new system will
founder and the strong hand will follow. Even Yeltsin has raised
the specter. "I have faith in our reforms," he said on a visit
to France last month. "But if they fail, I can already feel the
breath of the redshirts and Brownshirts on our necks."

    Yeltsin's words rang true on the streets of Moscow last
week when communists and ultra-nationalists clashed with police
during an antigovernment demonstration. Despite outnumbering the
5,000 demonstrators 2 to 1, city militia and riot police
responded with billy clubs when the crowd broke their cordons.
The clashes left 20 policemen and seven civilians injured.

    It was the first violent demonstration in Moscow under
Yeltsin's rule, but it testified less to the strength of the
opposition than to the President's mishandling of the threat.
Had they simply let the demonstration go on, Yeltsin and his
supporters in the Moscow city government could have pointed to
the tiny turnout as proof that the great majority of Russians
prefer democratic reform to any brand of authoritarianism,
communist or fascist. Instead, the disparate opposition forces
won a fresh reason to rail against the government. Wrote Eduard
Limonov, in the conservative Sovetskaya Rossiya newspaper: "The
first beatings are usually followed by the first bullets and the
first murders."

    While Yeltsin still enjoys public support, there is no
shortage of would-be successors trying to stir up discontent and
resistance. Opposition groups range from communist movements
nostalgic for Stalinist strong-arm rule to ultra-right
nationalist parties preaching Russian imperial supremacy.
Increasingly, these two have edged toward forming a common front
against Yeltsin in the name of "saving the fatherland." Both
have been courting the former Soviet army; despite internal
divisions, the 3.7 million-strong military remains the only
force capable of toppling the government. Another threat may
come from the ranks of democrats who carried Yeltsin to power
but who have since splintered into factions. Here are some of
Yel tsin's enemies, real and potential:

    THE COMMUNISTS. Following the failed coup last August,
Yeltsin punished the Communist Party by banning it on Russian
territory and confiscating its vast property. Nine new groups
claim to be the party's heir. Their leaders are generally
little-known former functionaries or true believers; they draw
much of their support from party bureaucrats who have lost their
status, privileges and often their jobs. The new communist
parties have also found allies in trade-union officials who fear
that market reform will lead to factory closures and mass
unemployment.

    Until recently, demonstrations for the return of communism
rarely attracted more than 100 people, but soaring inflation
brought on by price liberalization has swelled the ranks of the
disgruntled. Nevertheless, communism is so discredited that most
observers dismiss the likelihood of a red revival.

    "The communist idea in our country is quickly becoming
part of the past," says Vitali Tretyakov, editor of the reform
newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "It offers nothing that will
improve people's lives."

    THE NATIONALISTS. Many of the communist sympathizers are
trying to broaden their appeal by adopting some of the
nationalist and patriotic themes of the right wing. At last
week's demonstration, symbols of Russian imperialism were almost
as common a sight as the hammer and sickle. Viktor Alksnis, who
led a faction of hard-liners in the old Soviet parliament, has
teamed up with noncommunist nationalists in an umbrella movement
called Nashi (Ours) that seeks to restore the U.S.S.R., whether
in its previous form or as a new Russian empire. "Anyone who
supports the union is ours," says Alksnis.

    Perhaps the most potent figure in the Nashi coalition is
Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a noisy demagogue whose ravings have
earned him comparisons to Hitler. As chairman of the deceptively
named Liberal-Democratic Party, Zhirinovsky campaigned on a
platform mixing promises of cheaper vodka with blatant
xenophobia to place a surprising third in the Russian
presidential election won by Yeltsin last June. He has
threatened to poison the newly independent Baltic peoples with
nuclear waste and vows to expand Russian territory by force.
Though his fanaticism has made him mainly a vulgar curiosity,
some observers fear he may be a forerunner of politicians to
come. Says Lev Timofeyev, a market-oriented economist: "A person
with a program like Zhirinovsky's could be dangerous."

    GOVERNMENT RIVALS. One of the government's most outspoken
critics is the man legally entitled to take over if Yeltsin
should depart: Vice President Alexander Rutskoi. He provided key
support when his Communists for Democracy faction split with
party hard-liners and backed Yeltsin's campaign for Russia's top
post. Yeltsin rewarded him with the second spot, but since last
fall Rutskoi has turned on his boss with a very public campaign
against the economic reform plan of Deputy Prime Minister Yegor
Gaidar. Though a proponent of reform in principle, Rutskoi
recently described Gaidar's program of freeing prices before
privatizing state property as "economic genocide of the Russian
people."

    Though Rutskoi has carefully avoided criticizing Yeltsin
personally, the President has moved to limit his erstwhile
ally's authority and recently assigned him the thankless
agricultural portfolio. But Yel tsin has stopped short of trying
to oust Rutskoi, possibly because he considers it wiser to
tolerate a rebellious Vice President than to have him lead an
opposition campaign. "Rutskoi can only form a viable party if
he resigns," says Tretyakov. As if preparing for such a move,
Rutskoi has lately been sounding nationalist themes along with
his economic critiques.

    THE MILITARY. All opposition figures have supported the
military in its complaints: low pay, poor housing and
uncertainty brought on by the disintegration of the union. The
army remains a powerful wild card. While Marshal Yevgeni
Shaposhnikov, military commander of the new Commonwealth of
Independent States, has assured both Yeltsin and the West that
the army will not take part in any coup, some officers have
suggested that they should take the initiative to "save" the
country. Aware of the threat, Yeltsin has heeded the complaints:
in January he raised officers' salaries 90%.

    As long as the military remains on the sidelines and
political opponents lack broad support, the greatest challenge
for Yeltsin will be to prevent the reform movement from
self-destructing. Constant sniping from his onetime allies --
including such liberals as Russian Parliament Chairman Ruslan
Khasbulatov, St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoli Sobchak and Moscow
Mayor Gavril Popov -- threatens to undermine support for his
economic plan. "The danger is that their criticism will become
the dominant view in society," says Robert Legvold, director of
Columbia University's Harriman Institute.

    Should that happen, Yeltsin could be so weakened
politically that the public might begin considering hard-line
opposition figures as real alternatives. "If Russia fails in its
reforms, especially of the economy," Yeltsin warned last month,
"a dictatorship will appear." Drained of popular support,
Yeltsin would have to compromise his policies or risk being
replaced. Either way, his warning might then become a
self-fulfilling prophecy.