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                                                                                NATION, Page 22

Nipping at Clinton's Heels


Rival Democrats attack the Arkansas Governor -- and backbite
one another -- as they jockey for position in the New Hampshire
primary

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT/MANCHESTER


    It was late in coming, but election-year madness has
finally gripped New Hampshire. Candidates accost voters on
frigid streets, knots of campaign workers wave placards in
shopping malls, and a blizzard of campaign commercials blankets
prime-time airwaves. But the familiar trappings disguise even
more volatility than usual as the nation's first primary moves
to its climax. Though Bill Clinton is the media-anointed front
runner, easily two-thirds of the likely Democratic voters are
in flux, and the fortunes of his four main rivals have been
fluctuating erratically.

    Only now is the Democrats' Silly Putty politics beginning
to assume some semblance of structure. Though Bob Kerrey, Paul
Tsongas and Tom Harkin still strive to overtake Clinton in New
Hampshire, each could survive to fight in later rounds by
running a respectable second here. Jerry Brown, who started as
the most prominent in a field of little-knowns, must fend off
disaster in this contest or find a launching pad elsewhere. The
strategies of Clinton's four main rivals:

    Brown as Ishmael.

    The former California Governor has three distinctions. He
is the only one who has sought the nomination before. He bases
his pitch exclusively on a crusade to purify the political
process. And according to a poll published last week by the
University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, only Brown has an
overall negative rating among the state's voters. His constant
attacks on his rivals as prisoners of the old politics make him
seem like a single-issue Ishmael. Though his relatively high
name recognition allows him to score well in national polls,
that edge is absent in New Hampshire, where the other
candidates are becoming known. His low-budget campaign appears
to be getting nowhere in this state, so he is investing more of
his time elsewhere.

    Harkin strikes again.

    Iowa Senator Tom Harkin staked out his turf early.
Starting six months ago, he enlisted important allies in the
labor movement and the state party leadership. He roused
audiences with his muscular evocation of old-fashioned
liberalism and scathing attacks on George Bush. Then he stalled.
Observes Mark Mackenzie, president of the state AFL-CIO: "Harkin
has had some trouble moving beyond his initial stump speech."

    Last week Harkin was desperately trying to pump juice into
his campaign. Calling a press conference in 5 degrees weather
at a sewer-construction site, he proclaimed himself "the only
real Democrat in the race" and said his rivals were "all just
shades of Republican policies." He accused "the Governor of
Arkansas" of being too sympathetic to Japanese automobile
imports. Belatedly he began running TV spots that ply the theme
"I want to be known as the President that rebuilt America."
Harkin thinks that as the only red-blooded liberal, he can eke
out a plurality among traditional Democrats while his
sound-alike rivals divide the rest. But this year even some
labor chiefs and left-leaning activists yearn for a winner who
can reach well beyond the New Deal heritage. So far, Harkin
isn't even trying.

    Kerrey misfires and rearms.

    The Nebraska Senator started with enough emotional
intensity and mystique to attract a following in New Hampshire
that included many of Gary Hart's old supporters. But even some
of his advisers now admit that Kerrey did not master his own
message or achieve the discipline required for a national
campaign. He relied too heavily on his biography (war hero,
self-made businessman, ex-Governor) and on the appeal of his
plan for a national health-care program.

    Having repeatedly called for "fundamental change" in
government, he applied that principle to his organization last
month by overhauling the staff. Then he proceeded to pick fights
with Clinton, charging that his proposals are merely "a way to
remake the programs of the 1960s" rather than a formula for
reform.

    Meanwhile, Kerrey junked his TV commercials before they
were shown and hired David Doak and Bob Shrum, a team of
political-ad consultants known for their hard-hitting work.
Though produced in a rush, their first two spots have drawn good
reviews. Each carries the punch line "Fight Back America." One
shows Kerrey in a hospital plugging his health program. The
other poses him in a hockey rink, promising to defend America's
net against unfair Japanese trade practices. Both convey a sense
of determination that Kerrey hopes will convince voters that he,
not Clinton, is the reliable agent of renewal. The remaining
three debates will give him an opportunity to outshine the more
cautious, stolid Arkansas Governor.

    Tsongas plays the enforcer.

    If class and intellect were the only criteria, the former
Senator from Massachusetts would be cruising. Tsongas' platform
is a trenchant 86-page guide to revival with two simple
arguments: that sustained economic recovery demands fundamental
changes in national policy, and that Democrats don't deserve to
win unless they adopt a pro-business philosophy. Few New
Hampshire voters have read his monograph, and fewer still agree
with his dismissal of a middle-class tax cut as "Twinkie
economics." On the basis of next-door familiarity and his
reputation for integrity, Tsongas for a time held a lead over
lesser-known rivals. As a campaign performer, the bland and
somber Tsongas couldn't make the lead in a high school play. His
demeanor, poor TV presence and dire admonitions make him this
year's edition of Bruce Babbitt. With his early advantage
fading, Tsongas remains the conscience and enforcer, trying to
keep the field as honest as politics allows. Last week he
blasted Kerrey's new TV ad on the trade issue as "economics by
media consultants" because it "gives people every incentive not
to understand that the threat is internal." He doesn't carp at
Clinton much, partly because the two men agree on many issues.
But in competitive terms, it serves Tsongas' interests to
undermine Kerrey, who last week seemed his main rival for second
place.

    New Hampshire voters have a history of demolishing
conventional wisdom and learned analysis with election-day
thunderbolts. Eight years ago this week, John Glenn appeared to
be poised for a fine showing; his defeat forced him from the
race. Others nurturing great expectations have suffered the same
fate. But with "undecided" doing as well as any candidate in the
latest reliable survey, all the contenders can still afford to
dream.