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                                                                                NATION, Page 50

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bush Makes It Personal


The President counters a rightist challenge with a stream of
surrogates -- and federal dollars -- as the Democrats jostle
for position

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT/MANCHESTER


    George Bush could have dispatched just about any
political operative to New Hampshire to file his papers for the
state's Feb. 18 primary. But the President chose his wife
Barbara, whose shining silver hair and trademark pearls
garnished a series of photo opportunities. The First Lady exuded
her characteristic warmth and motherly concern as she assured
local TV viewers: "Nobody suffers more than George about the
economy."

    Why would a sitting President, assured of the Republican
nomination, add such a personal touch to this formality? Ask Pat
Buchanan, the polemicist turned candidate, whose aggressive
effort to shift the G.O.P. rightward threatens to siphon off
enough conservative votes to embarrass Bush at the outset of
what could be a tough re-election bid. Buchanan "deserves the
Christopher Columbus award," quips Democratic state chairman
Chris Spirou, "because he forced Bush to discover New
Hampshire."

    In the wake of Mario Cuomo's default, meanwhile, the six
major Democratic candidates are looking to the Granite State as
the first major showdown in what has suddenly become a
wide-open scramble for their party's nomination. For now, the
one clear winner is New Hampshire; after three years of dismal
economic news, the locals can look forward to a quick-shot
infusion of cash from the candidates and the hordes of
journalists covering the contest. At least four of the Democrats
will spend $530,000 apiece, the maximum allowed in the primary.
On top of that, the Administration is weighing in with a welcome
helping of federal money whose timing leaves little doubt about
the political motives behind it.

    Barbara Bush was only the first in a series of
presidential surrogates sent out to stump at frosty shopping
centers and on slushy downtown streets. Last week former White
House chief of staff John Su nunu popped up in his home state
to make a show of unity with sometime rival Judd Gregg, Sununu's
successor as Governor and a leader of the local Bush
organization. Sununu, who has strong ties with conservatives,
pronounced Buchanan out of step with mainstream Republicans.
Next week Vice President Dan Quayle will spend two days stroking
local voters. Explaining the stream of stand-ins, a Bush
political adviser confides, "Everyone there is scared. New
Hampshire is the worst-off state in the country, at least
psychologically."

    But New Hampshire's voters are accustomed to being wooed
in the flesh. Though Bush two weeks ago granted a White House
interview to Manchester's WMUR television station, he did not
slow the momentum of Buchanan's energetic campaigning on the
ground. So the President has decided to make his personal
campaign debut in Portsmouth on Jan. 15.

    He is not expected to arrive empty-handed. One possibility
is that Bush will announce a new scheme to bring commercial
activity to the site of Pease Air Force Base, the closing of
which devastated the Portsmouth area. The Administration has
already delivered a number of other pot sweeteners to New
Hampshire. In early December the state received an accelerated
payment of Medicaid funds that will balance its budget. The
State Department has announced that a visa-processing office
will operate on the grounds of the defunct air base. Meanwhile,
the Small Business Administration has designated New Hampshire
the first state to benefit from a lending program that will
compensate for the shortage of commercial credit.

    It is by no means certain that such largesse can quash the
Buchanan threat. Governor Gregg argues that "the President has
already overcome the initial hurdle" by showing he really
understands New Hampshire's plight. But his father Hugh Gregg,
a former Governor now running Bush's campaign in the state,
concedes that "some of my best friends, good Republicans," are
angry enough to consider a protest vote against Bush. Another
hazard for Bush is that many orthodox Republicans might simply
stay home, increasing the proportional clout of conservative
ideologues who are Buchanan's strongest supporters. A poll
published by the Concord Monitor last week showed Buchanan
getting 30% of Republican voters, vs. 58% for Bush. That 30% --
against an incumbent President -- is a respectable showing,
which Buchanan can build on with a deft campaign.

    Last week the dogged challenger was out stumping on
Christmas Eve. At a J.C. Penney in Bedford, he bought five pairs
of socks, pointing out that when Bush made a symbolic
shopping-mall foray recently it was in distant Maryland -- and
that the President bought only four pairs. Despite his pluck and
energy, Buchanan has severe handicaps: low budget, frail
organization and an obsession with ideology that may confine his
appeal to the right wing. If Buchanan concentrates his fire on
Bush as an uncaring patrician whose feckless policies devastated
New Hampshire's economy, he could attract some moderates and
independents. But if he continues to fog that message with his
vaporous isolationism and other right-wing fet ishes, he will
risk losing his chance to humiliate the President.

    Although a strong Buchanan showing would send Bush a
powerful symbolic message, it would have little real impact on
the Republican nomination process. For the Democrats, however,
New Hampshire is the crucial first hurdle. Unlike most recent
elections, the Feb. 10 caucuses in Iowa will have little meaning
this year because no one is seriously competing there against
native son Tom Harkin. That leaves it up to Granite State voters
to give the Democratic aspirants their first real electoral
test.

    Recent polls give a nominal lead to Paul Tsongas, the
former Senator from neighboring Massachusetts, who benefits from
his early start and his status as a New Englander. Those
advantages may keep this sober, cerebral lawyer at the head of
the pack in New Hampshire even though his prospects in later
rounds are bleak.

    His three strongest rivals -- Harkin, Arkansas Governor
Bill Clinton and Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey -- all insist they
must "do well" in New Hampshire. But none of them defines what
that means for fear of inflating expectations. As these three
candidates strive to gain a distinct image, the campaign will
gain heat. For Kerrey, New Hampshire represents an opportunity
to right himself after a rocky couple of months culminating in
the replacement last week of his national campaign manager.
Harkin, the most combative and liberal of the group, is expected
to attack the centrist Clinton, whom Harkin views as his main
rival in the coming months. Neither of the other two candidates,
Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder and former California Governor
Jerry Brown, appears to be gaining much traction in what looks
to be one of the most fluid primary-season openers in recent
memory.