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Text File | 1992-01-19 | 9KB | 179 lines

                  George Herbert Walker Bush

    Only a few months ago, George Bush's re-election seemed
 like a sure thing.
    But the recession shows no immediate signs of ending and
 the nation's economic woes have cast a shadow over the GOP's
 hopes of an easy victory in the '92 presidential campaign.
    Bush's overall popularity in the polls has dropped to
 less than 50 % for the first time, according to a Time/CNN
 poll. The poll found 46 % approved of Bush's performance.
    The euphoria after the allied victory over Iraq, when
 Bush's ratings soared to 90 %, has dissipated.
    The economy has been a problem for Bush almost from the
 day he entered the White House. In his first 2 1/2 years in
 office, the US experienced its lowest growth since the late
 1940s.
    In the last 3 quarters, the White House has conceded that
 recovery will not be as strong as had been hoped.
    Among the presidential role models Bush will hardly want
 to emulate are Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, who were both
 denied re-election partly by so-called pocketbook issues.
    Bush has been trying to shift the blame to Congress in an
 effort to capitalize on a growing anti-Washington mood.
    "I don't think Bush can be defeated by any Democrat,"
 says Oregon GOP chairman Craig Berkman. "If he has a close
 race, the problem is the economy--historically, people vote
 their pocketbook."
    Carter devised the "misery index"--the unemployment and
 infation rates--to throw Ford on the defensive only to be
 driven out of office himself after Ronald Reagan asked
 voters in 1980: "Are you better off now than you were
 4 years ago?"
    Some analysts say it's too early to push the panic
 button: the election is still nearly a year away.
    Nevertheless, Bush has reacted to criticism that he is
 spending too much time on foreign policy and neglecting the
 pile of problems on his doorstep.
    Just before he left for a trip to Rome to attend a NATO
 summit, Bush canceled a trip to Asia. He said he hated going
 away "with Congress still in session" and insisted it was
 "crazy" to think he was bowing to political pressure.
    Bush hasn't officially said whether he'll run again, but
 the race clearly appears to be on. At a GOP fund-raiser in
 Houston Nov 1, Bush lambasted Democrats and said, "I'm
 getting warmed up for next year."
    As president, Bush's personal style is a study in
 contradictions. There's the Old Money WASP Bush with the
 patrician, prep-school veneer, and there's the Texas good
 ole' boy Bush who relishes pork rinds and fishing.
    Though he is 67, Bush manages to convey a youthful public
 image, whether he's piloting a power boat, dashing through a
 game of speed golf or jogging.
    He has logged more than 340,000 miles on Air Force One.
 He visited more foreign countries in his first 2 years of
 office than Ronald Reagan did in 8.
    "I love to go abroad," Bush once told schoolchildren.
    If Bush were reelected, he would be 72 by the end of the
 term, or older than any president other than Reagan.
    Earlier this year when Bush was hospitalized for 2 days
 with atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat, his health
 raised concerns. And it focused renewed attention on VP Dan
 Quayle and his credentials to assume the presidency.
    Blood tests showed Bush's problem was the result of
 Graves' disease, which causes overactive thyroid glands.
 Bush has said that only a serious health problem would
 prevent him from running. In September, Bush's doctors gave
 him "a perfect bill of health."
    Born June 12, 1924, in Milton, Mass, into a politically
 prominent family, Bush has sought to play down his
 privileged early years. He attended Phillips Academy and
 Yale, where he got his BA, fittingly enough, in economics.
    During WW II, Bush served in the Navy and saw combat
 action as a pilot. He received the Distinguished Flying
 Cross.
    After finishing college, he left the Northeast when he
 was 24 and moved with his family to Texas, where he
 co-founded Zapata petroleum, a drilling equipment sales
 company.
    Bush says he "learned a few things about life in a place
 called Texas," working in the oil business and raising a
 family: "Well I may not be the most eloquent, but I learned
 that, early on, that eloquence won't draw oil from the
 ground."
    Bush began his political career in 1964 with an
 unsuccessful run for a House seat from Texas, challenging a
 liberal Democrat. During the campaign, Bush called himself a
 "100 %" Goldwater man and opposed the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
    He ran again from Houston 2 years later and won. He left
 political office in 1971 after 2 unsuccessful Senate bids.
    For Bush, the road to the White House has been bumpy.
    Bush wanted to be president in 1980, but lost the GOP
 nomination to Ronald Reagan, who chose him for the ticket.
  In the 1988 campaign, Bush got off to a shaky start. He
 lost his first test, the Iowa caucuses, finishing 3d behind
 Sen Robert Dole (R-Kan) and Christian broadcaster Pat
 Robertson. But Bush bounced back to win the New Hampshire
 primary and virtually locked up the race by April.
    Bush won the '88 election against Michael Dukakis with
 53 % of the vote. It was a smaller margin than in '80, when
 the Reagan-Bush ticket got nearly 59 % of the popular vote.

                         HIS PROGRAM

    In his inaugural speech, Bush defined his agenda. He
 promised to fight the "scourge of drugs" and homelessness,
 to tackle the deficit and to end 2 decades of divisiveness
 between the White House and Congress.
    "My friends we have work to do," he said on Jan 20, 1989.
 "There are the homeless, lost and roaming...There is crime
 to be conquered, the rough crime of the streets."
    "We must ensure that America stands before the world:
 united, strong, at peace and fiscally sound."
    Democrats maintain that Bush, who has sought to portray
 himself as the "education president" and the "environment
 president" has failed to deliver on the domestic front.
    The image of a president preoccupied with international
 affairs made headlines earlier this year when Time magazine,
 in its annual Man of the Year feature, portrayed the
 president as "the 2 George Bushes." Time said Bush was "a
 highly capable captain of foreign policy and a dawdling,
 disengaged caretaker of domestic affairs."
    The battle lines for the '92 presidential election were
 already beginning to take shape.
    On the domestic front, Bush lists among his
 accomplishments 3 laws passed last year that would:
    * reduce air pollution.
    * prohibit discrimination against the disabled.
    * subsidize child care for low-income families.
   Bush's spokesman say he has also blocked unwise
 legislation from the Democratic Congress, vetoing 24 bills.
 The bills ranged from family leave to textile import quotas
 to civil rights.
    Bush has been sharply critical of Congress for failing to
 act on his proposed crime and transportation bills.
    Bush's appointments have sometimes created a firestorm of
 controversy, beginning with his selection of Dan Quayle.
    The list also includes:
 * Sen John Tower of Texas, whose nomination as secretary of
 defense was rejected by the Senate. Tower was killed this
 year in a plane crash.
 * Ex-Chief of Staff John Sununu, whose use of government
 jets for private trips made headlines earlier this year.
 * CIA chief Robert Gates, whose nomination reopened the
 Iran-Contra affair.
 * Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas.
    Bush's strongest public support has come in the foreign
 policy arena. To some extent, history has been on his side.
    His administration came to power at a fortuitous time:
 Communism was collapsing in Eastern Europe and the Berlin
 Wall was tumbling down. Recent events in the Soviet Union
 seem to signal the Cold War's grand finale.
    Bush showed a willingness to act boldly in the Persian
 Gulf crisis, although some critics say he ended the war too
 quickly and failed to dislodge Saddam Hussein from power.
   In the Mideast, his administration is still trying to
 bring all the parties to the conference table.

                         THE CAMPAIGN

    Bush isn't expected to formally announce his reelection
 until early next year. His advisers say there's no rush.
    In the meantime, he can take advantage of the power of
 incumbency by appearing to be presidential, rather than a
 political candidate with a partisan agenda.
    Nevertheless, Bush has authorized his supporters to begin
 raising money for the campaign. According to Reuters, GOP
 sources say the fund-raising goal is $26 million, the
 maximum allowed under campaign spending limits.
    On Dec 5, Bush named his campaign team. The key members:

 * Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher, 64, is the general
 campaign chairman.
 * Pollster Robert Teeter, 52, is the campaign's chairman and
 chief strategist.
 * Fred Malek, 54, a businessman, is overseeing day-to-day
 operations.
 * Charles Black, 44, a senior adviser to the Republican Natl
 Committee, is signing on as a campaign adviser.