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<text id=89TT0032>
<title>
Jan. 02, 1989: Overpopulation:Too Many Mouths
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1989
Jan. 02, 1989 Planet Of The Year:Endangered Earth
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
PLANET OF THE YEAR, Page 48
OVERPOPULATION
Too Many Mouths
</hdr><body>
<p>THE PROBLEM: Swarms of people are running out of food and space
</p>
<p>By Anastasia Toufexis
</p>
<p> Close to the Zocalo, Mexico City's great central square,
lies the barrio of Morelos, a vast warren of dusty, potholed
streets and narrow entryways. The passages lead to a gloomy
world. On each side of a roofless patio is a ten-room jumble.
Each room holds a family; each family averages five people. The
only bathrooms -- two to serve 100 people -- are located at the
back of the patio. The odor of grease and sewage permeates the
air. Flies buzz relentlessly. The people who live here are
considered lucky.
</p>
<p> In the shantytowns on Mexico City's outskirts, tens of
thousands of people shelter in huts made of cardboard with
aluminum roofs. There is no running water and no sanitation.
The stench is overpowering: garbage and human waste heap up in
piles. Rats roam freely, like stray domestic animals.
</p>
<p> To the more privileged, those scenes look like a
science-fiction vision of civilization's breakdown, perhaps
after a nuclear war. In fact, Mexico City has been described as
the anteroom to an ecological Hiroshima. With 20 million
residents -- up from 9 million only 20 years ago -- the Mexican
capital is considered the most populous urban center on earth.
Mexico City has been struck not by military weapons but by a
population bomb.
</p>
<p> Ultimately, no problem may be more threatening to the
earth's environment than the proliferation of the human
species. Today the planet holds more than 5 billion people.
During the next century, world population will double, with 90%
of that growth occurring in poorer, developing countries.
African nations are expanding at the fastest rate. During the
next 30 years, for example, the population of Kenya (annual
growth rate: 4%) will jump from 23 million to 79 million;
Nigeria's population (growth rate: 3%) will soar from 112
million to 274 million. Expansion is slower in Brazil, China,
India and Indonesia, but in those countries the sheer size of
existing populations translates into a huge increase in people.
</p>
<p> In the poorest countries, growth rates are outstripping the
national ability to provide the bare necessities -- housing,
fuel and food. Living trees are being chopped down for fuel,
grasslands overgrazed by livestock, and croplands overplowed by
desperate farmers. Horrifying images of starvation in
northeastern Africa have captured world attention in the past
decade. In India, according to government reports, 37% of the
people cannot buy enough food to sustain themselves. Warned
Shri B.B. Vohra, vice chairman of the Himachal Pradesh state
land-use board in northern India: "We may be well on the way to
producing a subhuman kind of race where people do not have
enough energy to deal with their problems."
</p>
<p> Prospects are so dire that some environmentalists urge the
world to adopt the goal of cutting in half the earth's
population growth rate during the next decade. "That means a
call for a two-child family for the world as a whole,"
explained Lester Brown, president of the Worldwatch Institute.
"In some countries there may be a need to set a goal of one
child per family." That is a daunting challenge. During the past
decade, many of the world's poor nations condemned the notion
of family planning as an imperialist and racist scheme touted
by the developed world. Yet today virtually all Third World
countries are committed to limiting population growth.
</p>
<p> But the effort needs to be speeded up. For starters,
contraceptive information and devices should be available to
every man or woman on earth who wants them. According to
surveys by the United Nations and other organizations, fully
half the 463 million married women in developing countries
(excluding China) do not want more children. Yet many have
little or no access to effective methods of birth control, such
as the Pill and the intrauterine device (IUD). The World Bank
estimates that making birth control readily available on a
global basis would require that the $3 billion now spent
annually on family-planning services be increased to $8 billion
by the year 2000. The increase in funds could shave projected
world population from 10 billion to 8 billion over the next 60
years. However, few modern contraceptive methods are ideally
suited to the daily lives of Third World citizens. Two-thirds
of the 60 million users of condoms, diaphragms and sponges live
in the industrialized world. Men in developing countries
frequently view condoms as a threat to their masculine image;
women often find diaphragms impractical since clean water for
washing the device is scarce.
</p>
<p> The most popular form of population control in developing
countries is sterilization. Some 98 million women and 35 million
men around the world have resorted to that permanent solution.
The other current mainstay is abortion, which the Worldwatch
Institute's Brown called "a reflection of unmet family-planning
needs." An estimated 28 million abortions are performed in Third
World nations annually, and an additional 26 million in
industrial countries. About half are illegal.
</p>
<p> New forms of birth control are desperately needed, and a few
are slowly appearing. Last year a French pharmaceutical firm
introduced RU 486, a drug that helps induce a relatively safe
miscarriage when given to a woman in the early stages of
pregnancy. Another recent arrival is Norplant, steroid-filled
capsules that are embedded in a woman's arm and deliver
contraceptive protection for five years. The implant is
approved for use in twelve countries, including China, Thailand
and Indonesia.
</p>
<p> But progress is too slow. Additional spending on
contraceptive research and development is badly needed. In 1972
global spending was estimated at $74 million annually, a paltry
sum compared with many Third World military budgets. The
funding in 1983 was just $57 million. One reason for the
decrease was the Reagan Administration's antiabortion policy.
U.S. contributions to international population-assistance
programs declined 20% between 1985 and 1987, to about $230
million.
</p>
<p> Bruce Wilcox, president of the Institute for Sustainable
Development, an environmental-research organization based in
Palo Alto, Calif., declared that solutions to the population
challenge will demand "fundamental changes in society."
Ingrained cultural attitudes that promote high birthrates will
have to be challenged. Many families in poor agrarian
societies, for example, see children as a source of labor and
a hedge against poverty in old age. People need to be taught
that with lower infant mortality, fewer offspring can provide
the same measure of security. In some societies, numerous
progeny are viewed as symbols of virility. In Kenya's Nyanza
province, a man named Denja boasts that he has fathered 497
children.
</p>
<p> Of all entrenched values, religion presents perhaps the
greatest obstacle to population control. Roman Catholics have
fought against national family-planning efforts in Mexico, Kenya
and the Philippines, while Muslim fundamentalists have done the
same in Iran, Egypt and Pakistan. Still, religious objections
need not entirely thwart population planning. Where such
resistance is encountered, vigorous campaigns should be mounted
to promote natural birth-control techniques, including the
rhythm method and fertility delay through breast feeding.
</p>
<p> If there is a single key to population control in developing
countries, experts agree, it lies in improving the social status
of women. Third World women often have relatively few political
or legal rights, and not many receive schooling that prepares
them for roles outside the home. Said Robert Berg, president of
the International Development Conference: "Expanding educational
and employment opportunities for women is necessary for
permanently addressing the population issue."
</p>
<p> The effect of special programs for women has been
demonstrated in Bangladesh. In 1975 the government launched a
project in which associations of rural village women were
provided with start-up loans for launching small businesses,
such as making pottery, raising poultry and running grocery
stores. About 123,000 women are currently enrolled in the
cooperative. At weekly meetings, health-care and contraceptive
information are distributed among members. An extraordinary 75%
of the co-op members of childbearing age use contraceptives,
while nationwide only 35% of married women practice birth
control.
</p>
<p> Ultimately, slowing the population juggernaut will depend on
the ability of family-planning experts to create well-tailored
programs for different societies and even for different segments
of societies. But first, governments will have to raise public
awareness and rally support for population control with a
cohesive message about the dangers of rampant growth. India, one
of the first countries to adopt a family-planning program, some
30 years ago, failed to forge a national will for the task, and
the population is now growing at 2% a year.
</p>
<p> In contrast, China has galvanized its people behind a huge
population-planning effort. Still, its program demonstrates just
how difficult -- and risky -- social tinkering can be. The
nation launched its "one-family, one-child" policy in 1979. The
aim: to contain population at 1.2 billion by the year 2000. In
pursuit of that goal, local authorities have offered such
incentives as a monthly stipend until the sole child turns 14
and better housing. Penalties for violating the policy have
included dismissal from government jobs and fines of up to a
year's wages for urban workers. China's effort has had some
distressing consequences. Women have been coerced into having
abortions, and there have been reports of female infanticide by
parents determined that their one child should be a boy.
Moreover, officials have acknowledged that exceptions to the
one-child rule have been frequently condoned, especially in
rural areas. In fact, only 19% of Chinese couples have one
child. Beijing has announced that the nation will miss its
target: the country's projected population in the year 2000 is
1.27 billion.
</p>
<p> Yet for all its failings, China's effort has produced
results. The population growth rate, once among the highest in
the world, has been slashed in half, to 1.4%. And the Chinese
are determined to reduce the rate still further. The same
formidable task will face other developing countries as they
confront the population bomb. But confront it they must.
</p>
</body></article>
</text>