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<text id=89TT0027>
<title>
Jan. 02, 1989: Preparing For The Worst
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1989
Jan. 02, 1989 Planet Of The Year:Endangered Earth
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
PLANET OF THE YEAR, Page 70
Preparing for the Worst
</hdr><body>
<p>If the sun turns killer and the well runs dry, how will humanity
cope?
</p>
<p>By Philip Elmer-Dewitt
</p>
<p> If the nations of the world take immediate action, the
destruction of the global environment can be slowed
substantially. But some irreversible damage is inevitable. Even
if fossil-fuel emissions are cut drastically, the overall level
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will still increase --
along with the likelihood of some global warming. Even if toxic
dumping is banned outright and that ban is strictly enforced,
some lakes and aquifers will be tainted by poisons that have
already been released. Even if global population growth could
somehow be cut in half, there would still be more than 45
million new mouths to feed next year, putting further strain on a
planet whose capacity to sustain life is already under stress.
</p>
<p> Sooner or later the earth's human inhabitants, so used to
adapting the environment to suit their needs, will be forced to
adapt themselves to the environment's demands. When that day
comes, how will societies respond? How well will the world cope
with the long-term changes that are likely to be in store?
</p>
<p> To help answer those questions, political scientist Michael
Glantz of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has
pioneered the use of a technique known as "forecasting by
analogy" to predict the effects on society of future climatic
change. In a series of case studies, Glantz and his colleagues
analyzed the response of state and local governments to actual
environmental events across the U.S., from a 12-ft. rise in the
level of Utah's Great Salt Lake to the depletion of the aquifer
that supplies groundwater to eight Great Plains states.
</p>
<p> When Glantz's forecasting technique is applied to the rest
of the world, two things become clear. One is that virtually
every long-term environmental change is occurring in miniature
somewhere on the planet, whether it is a regional warming trend
in sub-Saharan Africa or the vanishing coastline in Louisiana.
The other is that Homo sapiens is an immensely resourceful
species, with an impressive ability to accommodate sweeping
change. In countries and regions hit by climatic upheavals,
people have come up with a variety of solutions that are likely
to have broad applicability to the global problems of tomorrow.
</p>
<p> How would societies respond, for example, if the oceans were
to rise by 3 ft. to 5 ft. over the next century, as some
scientists have predicted? One option would be to construct
levees and dikes. The Netherlands, after all, has flourished
more than 12 ft. below sea level for hundreds of years. Its
newest bulwark is a 5.6-mile dam made up of 131-ft. steel locks
that remain open during normal conditions, to preserve the
tidal flow that feeds the rich local sea life, but can be closed
when rough weather threatens. Venice is beginning to put into
place a 1.2-mile flexible seawall that would protect its
treasured landmarks against Adriatic storms without doing
ecological damage to the city's lagoon.
</p>
<p> Shoring up cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Paris,
London and Rio de Janeiro would require equally monumental
measures. In the U.S. the Environmental Protection Agency
estimates that the cost of protecting developed coastal areas
could reach $111 billion. Southern Louisiana, which is losing
land to the Gulf of Mexico at the alarming rate of one acre
every 16 minutes, has already drawn up an ambitious mix of
programs. In the biggest project, a $24 million pumping station
would divert millions of gallons of silt-rich Mississippi River
water onto the coastline to help stop saltwater intrusion and to
supply sediment that will build up the eroding land. At least
one parish is considering plans for a backstop dike to give
residents time to escape should the sea finally reach their
doors.
</p>
<p> Poorer countries have fewer options. Wracked by periodic
floods, Bangladesh cannot simply evacuate the "chars" -- bars of
sand and silt in the Ganges Delta -- where millions of people
have set up camp. But the government has drawn up plans for a
network of raised helipads and local flood shelters to
facilitate the distribution of emergency aid if, as seems
inevitable, disaster strikes again. Meanwhile, the country can
only appeal to its Himalayan neighbors to do something about
the root cause of the flooding: the deforestation of watersheds
in India and Nepal that has turned seasonal monsoons into
"unnatural disasters."
</p>
<p> The problems of agriculture are likely to be critical in the
next century, as growing populations, deteriorating soil
conditions and changing climates put even more pressure on a
badly strained food-supply system. In parts of sub-Saharan
Africa, that system has broken down periodically over the past
20 years, resulting in the familiar TV images of children with
swollen bellies and relief camps filled with hungry people.
</p>
<p> What is not so well known is that hundreds of grass-roots
organizations in Africa are taking action to cope with
environmental change. Somalia has launched a vigorous
antidesertification drive that includes a ban on cutting
firewood. In Burkina Faso villagers have responded to steadily
dwindling rainfall by building handmade dams and adapting
primitive water-gathering techniques. Even so simple a trick as
putting stones along the contour lines of a field to catch
rainwater can make the difference between an adequate harvest
and no harvest at all.
</p>
<p> Necessity has spawned invention in marginal farmlands around
the world. The Chinese, threatened by a desert that is spreading
at the rate of 600 sq. mi. a year, are planting a "green Great
Wall" of grasses, shrubs and trees 4,350 miles across their
northern region. In Peru archaeologists have revived a
pre-Columbian agricultural system that involves dividing fields
into patterns of alternating canals and ridges. The canals
ensure a steady supply of water, and the nitrogen-rich sediment
that gathers on their floors provides fertilizer for the crops.
</p>
<p> Perhaps no one is better prepared for hot, dry summers than
Israel's farmers. The Israelis, using drip irrigation and other
techniques, have made plants bloom on land that has been barren
for millenniums. Portions of the arid Negev, an area once
written off as largely uncultivable, today grow fruit, flowers
and winter vegetables eagerly sought by European markets.
Through a process known as "fertigation" -- dripping precise
quantities of water and nutrients at the base of individual
plants -- crops can be grown in almost any soil, even with
brackish water.
</p>
<p> Plant genetics is another option that needs to be
energetically pursued. At the University of California at
Riverside, plant physiologist Anthony Hall is working on a way
to make cowpeas more tolerant to heat. Other scientists are
using genetic engineering to transfer genes from bacteria that
act like natural insecticides. But though they have tried,
scientists have not yet been able to develop farm crops that
are drought resistant. Says Hall: "You can't grow plants
without water."
</p>
<p> There are things people can do if the well runs dry. Several
communities located near the sea have built desalinization
plants. Denver, meanwhile, has pioneered the unsavory concept
of turning sewer water into drinking water. In 1985 the city
opened an experimental plant that produces 1 million gal. a day
of high-quality H2O from treated effluent.
</p>
<p> Some scientists have suggested that the depletion of the
ozone layer could be counteracted by a variety of Star Wars-like
techniques. They include lofting frozen ozone "bullets" into the
upper atmosphere and blasting apart ozone-depleting molecules
in the air with huge terrestrial laser beams. But such grandiose
schemes would be unreliable and could change weather patterns
in unpredictable ways. In the end, it may be safer and cheaper,
if inconvenient, to cope with ozone depletion by wearing
wide-brimmed hats, sunglasses and sunscreen.
</p>
<p> Man has always shown a great capacity for adjusting to
change. Past generations have survived floods and ice ages,
famines and world wars. But when dealing with the environment,
there is a grave danger in relying on adaptation alone:
societies could end up waiting too long. Many of the global
processes under way, like the wholesale destruction of species,
are irreversible. Others, like global climate changes caused by
man, are so profound that if allowed to progress too far, they
could prove to be overwhelming. Simple prudence suggests that
taking forceful preventive action now -- to save energy, to
curb pollution, to slow population growth, to preserve the
environment -- will give humanity a much better chance of
adapting to whatever comes in the future.
</p>
</body></article>
</text>