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FUTURE.TXT
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1993-06-12
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FUTURE OUTLOOK.
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Micro development and programming languages.
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Whereas the Personal Computer in the year 2000 is envisaged as a
Worksheet, A3 in size, but foldable to A4 size by about 80mm, with a
flexible, pressure-sensitive screen using LCD colour filters, the more
immediate future scenario must involve the continued development of
machines with conventional monitors. However, it would be foolish not to
recognise the rapid development over the last ten years, with memory
expanding from the 32KB or less of 1980 microcomputers to 4MB of the
PS/2 model 80, whilst CPUs have grown from 8 bit to 32 bit processors
and LCD screens have become quite acceptable for laptop machines.
The past successes of the microcomputer industry must now be
responsible for the slower rate of change. In particular the wide
acceptance of MS-DOS as the operating system and the commitment to the
humble PC by corporate users has clearly prevented the wider acceptance
of the improved technology. To a lesser extent the change to 3 and 1/2
inch diskettes from the 5 and 1/4 inch size and the introduction of high
capacity drives has influenced user reaction.
However, since PC life-spans are about 5 years and facilities for
backward compatibility are continually being introduced, it must imply
that machines based on 80386SX, 80386 and 80486 processors will be more
widely used. This is certainly the view expressed in the computer press
recently, with PC Business World stating 'Future looks bright for 386SX
machines as demand rises'. At the same time the chip manufacturer Intel
have launched their own range of Workstations based on these processors.
Both the 80386 and the 80486 machines have 32-bit processors, with the
80486 also incorporating the 80387 coprocessor and an 8KB static-RAM
cache. The 80386SX is a hybrid 16/32-bit design with the 16-bit input-
output arrangement allowing the use of the same inexpensive architecture
and the same components as used for the AT 80286 machines. The 16-bit bus
of the 80386SX machine is only slightly slower than the 80386 and thus
offers a very good price-performance ratio.
Since the Intel machine with the 80386SX chip has 4Mbytes of memory, a
70 Mbyte hard disk, extended VGA graphics and a multi-sync monitor and
sells for £3995, this must surely allow the use of other operating
systems to MS-DOS. For example SCO Xenix requires 2MB RAM (4MB
recommended) and a 40MB hard disk (80 MB recommended) and since multiple
DOS applications can be run under UNIX backward compatibility is ensured.
It is important to note that IBM offer a version of UNIX called AIX for
their machines. It is therefore still open to debate as to whether OS/2
or UNIX (Xenix) or AIX will be the operating system of the future. These
operating systems offer additional benefits compared with MS-DOS, in as
much as they allow for multiuser, multitasking operation, but as a
consequence clearly require more memory, as indicated above for SCO Xenix.
As regards programming languages, it would appear that the structured,
typed language with free format, such as Pascal and its derivatives, will
continue to be used for the foreseeable future. The general view is,
however, that object-oriented programming will be as significant for the
1990s as structured programming was for the 1980s, so that version 5.5 of
Turbo Pascal with OOP is particularly important.
Because of its portability, which is also very important, it is likely
that C will be a significant language, especially if UNIX is accepted as
the operating system of the future. Again the version C++, which includes
object-oriented programming, will be relevant.
The contemporary high-level languages, as mentioned above, and classified
as third generation languages, might well be replaced by fourth generation
languages, such as Oracle's SQL/Forms (Structured Query Language), for
certain applications. Fourth generation languages offer an order-of-
magnitude improvement in productivity, but at the expense of runtime
execution speed. This is achieved because 4GLs are mainly non-procedural
languages, in which the programmer indicates what is required and
the language creates the equivalent statement. The non-procedural tasks
are performed using a menu-driven mode of operation, with screen painter,
report generator, dialogue specifier and on-line help information
facilities ideally available. Since 4GLs have learning periods of six
days or less, less skilled programmers can be employed.
References.
PC Business World - a weekly publication
PC Magazine - a monthly magazine
Personal Computer World - a monthly magazine.
FUTURE.TXT
1.3.90