OS/2 Shareware BBS: 14 Text/14-Text.zip/os2win.txt

Text File | 1995-02-12 | 15KB | 316 lines

Title:                OS/2 and Windows 95

Article from:         InnoVal Report on OS/2, Feb 13, 1995


Published Weekly By:  InnoVal Systems Solutions, Inc.
                      600 Mamaroneck Avenue
                      Harrison, NY 10528

For a printed copy write to the address shown above
or send a fax to [phone] or call [phone]


                     OS/2 and Windows 95
                     ===================

     In the January issue of OS/2 Professional, the publisher
Edwin Black  wrote, "Many, including OS/2 Professional and
even senior executives at IBM, have given OS/2 six months
to prove it can compete with Windows 95."
     He argues correctly that many of the installed base
statistics being bantered about are  poor measures of
success and are probably highly  inaccurate. On that we can
agree. But then Mr. Black goes on to argue for quality
instead of quantity, almost implying mutual exclusivity. He
states, "I am reminded of the city of Chicago, where I grew
up, and the suburbs, such as Evanston. The suburbs were a
better place to live and they offered a quality of life
that attracted many. But Evanston and other suburbs never
pretended to compete with Chicago's economy or size. By
concentrating on realistic goals aimed at those who lived,
worked, and shopped there, Chicago suburbs thrived. Maybe
OS/2 should become an affluent suburb of Chicago?"
     Mr. Black, though eloquent, has missed the mark. The
marketplace cares little about which operating system is
best. Software developers, as businesses, are more
interested in marketplace realities that translate into
revenue than the relative merits of one operating system
versus another. So, too, are equipment manufacturers,
service providers,  retailers, and resellers. Customers,
who are the decision makers and users at the end of the
pipeline,  not surprisingly, are of the same mind. Most
will opt for the operating system that promises a full
pipeline of useful applications and services.
     Among proponents of OS/2, there are two schools of
thought about what constitutes a full pipeline. Some argue
that the pipeline is already full of Windows applications
and that IBM should focus more attention on this fact. They
argue that  the most recent release of OS/2, OS/2 Warp 3.0,
enhances the usability of Windows sufficiently to warrant
its use by a large percentage of  approximately 50 to 60
million Windows users. IBM understands this vast market and
is even encouraging application development for Windows
with tools such as Visual Age for Windows and the Database
2 Development Kit for DOS (and Windows). This fact adds
credence to the argument.
     Apple's introduction of the Power Macintosh 6100/66 DOS
Compatible Computer is a factor worth considering.  It is
important to realize that Apple is not directing this
product at existing Macintosh customers but towards Windows
users and first-time buyers.
     Marketplace realists of the Windows school argue: Seize
the opportunity. It seems ironic that OS/2 Warp might
actually extend the product life of Windows applications by
providing a better platform.
     The second school of thought is that  native OS/2
applications that exploit 32 bit technology are needed if
OS/2 is to be truly successful in the marketplace. The
proponents of this school argue that such applications
offer the greatest benefits  and therefore justify the move
to OS/2. There are some very good native OS/2 applications.
Not many, but some. Unfortunately, most of them can only be
obtained directly from the software producers,  reseller
channels, or mail order houses. Because advertising for
these products is usually quite limited and highly
specialized, and because these products are not widely
available in the retail stores, they lack visibility. The
32 bit product pipeline is all but empty. Knowing this, the
proponents of the 32 bit school argue for a big
collaborative effort between IBM and software producers or
ISV's (independent software vendor).

Word processing software

     Perhaps the biggest problem for OS/2 is the lack of a
high quality, high profile word processing program that
exploits the benefits of OS/2 technology. The vast majority
of PC users today, from students in elementary school to
executives in major corporations and government, use word
processing software. Small businesses use word processing
programs extensively, not only for letters and documents
but for invoicing and forms generation. Today, few law
firms are  without word processing software.  Word
processing is used extensively in every industry and market
segment. Word processing, in 1995, is the proverbial tail
that wags the dog.
     The information highway, voice recognition, language
translation software, and  electronic publishing, all
burgeoning technologies, will only make word processing
ever more important.  And, for effective and seamless
integration, word processing software will need to work in
a pre-emptive multitasking environment.
     Ami Pro for OS/2, a word processing package  being
marketed by IBM, is sluggish and slow on all but the
fastest machines. It is a poor testament to what OS/2 is
all about. One of the biggest annoyances for Ami Pro users
is the inordinate amount of time required to format a
document for the printer. This is perhaps the most
significant and visible place to utilize OS/2's multithread
capabilities in word processing software.
     DeScribe, a true native word processor for OS/2, does a
good job of exploiting the benefits of OS/2. For whatever
reason, though, it is not gaining a sufficient foothold in
the market.

Two rights make a right.

     Both schools of thought are right. If OS/2 is to be
successful then IBM must fully exploit the Windows market
and the 32 bit market.
     Mr. Black's  premise was that OS/2 has about six months
to prove that it can compete with Windows 95. With regard
to quality, it can. Warp, now on the market  for about
three months, has proven to be fast and reliable - as a
Windows machine and as a 32 bit machine. Windows 95 will
also be a high quality product when it is finally released.
     Windows 95 will have the same base of Windows users. Like
Warp, it should enhance the use of Windows applications.
The name, "Windows 95",  suggestive of a new release  or a
logical next step for Windows, should  be an advantage for
Microsoft. The Microsoft brand name will also be a factor.
"The folks who brought you Windows now bring you Windows
95," could easily become the battle cry. And it is likely,
too, that there will be at least one high quality, high
profile, 32 bit multithread word processing program for
Windows 95.

IBM versus Microsoft

     The question isn't really if OS/2 can compete with
Windows 95. The question is: Can IBM compete with Micro-
soft?
     IBM   recognized the vast opportunity that the Windows
installed base offers. Microsoft, because of the success of
Windows, has actually handed IBM a gold mine of
opportunity.  IBM stepped into the market with OS/2 for
Windows and  Warp, not to compete with Windows, but to mine
the gold. That was sound strategy. IBM must now convince
the world that OS/2 is the platform of choice for running
Windows applications. That is execution.
     To date, IBM has shipped over  one million copies of
Warp. How many of these were  to Windows only  users or
first-time PC buyers? That measures success. One the other
hand, how many were to users merely upgrading OS/2 for
Windows? And though IBM documentation states that OS/2 Warp
cannot be installed on top of Versions 2.1 and 2.11, it did
not take long for the word to get out that one can do so,
given the right set of instructions. How significant are
upgrades as a portion of the one million shipments?

Retail outlets

     One observer of the OS/2 market suggests than anyone who
really wants to understand the dynamics of the marketplace
visit some retail stores. Visits should include software
specialty stores, electronics stores and office supply
super stores. In these stores, the shelves are brimming
with Windows software. Much of it is on CD. In fact, in
some stores, at least a third of the shelf space is  for CD
titles. He argues, "Put the CD version of Warp in the CD
section. Sell it as a major enhancement to Windows, not an
operating system. Put it near the games and the high
profile CD titles such as Quicken for Windows.  Give the
product more visibility. What little space the stores have
provided as an OS/2 section is uninteresting at best."
     When we visited the Egghead software store in Greenwich,
Connecticut on January 22nd, we found the OS/2 section in
the back of the store, around a corner, and invisible to
most of the store's customers. There were seven copies of
Warp on the shelf and no OS/2 specific application
software. Most of the OS/2 section, beneath IBM's  OS/2
logo, was filled with copies of  Microsoft Office.
     We are in an era when people go to the mall to buy
software. Home computer users do and so do small and medium
size businesses. The movers and shakers  in industry and
government also visit software retail outlets. They do so
if for no other reason than that they are home users. OS/2
seems invisible in stores and the message seems to be that
OS/2 is not a player. Will Windows 95 have the same problem
when it is released? That is an important question to ask.

Legal Tech 1995

     How really invisible is OS/2? Last week, we visited Legal
Tech 1995,  a major trade show for the New York area legal
community. Most of the 200 exhibitors were showing software
or computer related products. Nearly  9,500  people
visited the show  over a three day period.
     Microsoft had a booth featuring Windows, Microsoft Office
and other Microsoft solutions. The Novell exhibit featured
their LAN offerings, groupware and PerfectOffice for
Windows. The Intel booth was drawing a particularly large
crowd to see ProShare for Windows. ProShare, a video con-
ferencing and document interchange facility looks a lot
like Person-to-Person for OS/2. We suspect that a showing
of Person-to-Person would have generated similar interest.
     We thought we had found the IBM booth. The familiar
official  blue-on-white  IBM logo was prominently displayed
as the title for the booth. We assumed, as we suspect many
others did, that this was, in fact, the IBM booth. There
was no hardware and no software to examine. The only
display was a poorly drawn, totally confusing process flow
chart. Only by asking about the chart did we discover that
this was the booth of an IBM Business Partner. There was no
IBM booth and there was no sign that OS/2 existed.
     If OS/2 is to live up to its potential, IBM must find a
way to gain visibility and generate more interest. In the
fast paced personal computer market, interest feeds on
interest. The Borders Book Store in White Plains, New York
has Windows 95 books on the featured books tables. There is
interest in Windows 95. There appears to be less interest
in OS/2.
     It is not that OS/2  has six months to prove that it can
compete with Windows 95. Rather, it is that IBM has about
that many months to prove that it can compete with
Microsoft in the marketplace.

Some Encouraging Signs

     Last week, Ned Lautenbach, an IBM senior vice president
and group executive announced the formation of a new
worldwide software marketing organization. Executives in
this new organization will be working closely with IBM's
software group headed by John Thompson. The intent,
according to IBM, is to ensure that IBM's software products
are brought to market in the most effective, coordinated
manner possible. In announcing the organization, Mr.
Lautenbach said, "John and I want this new organization to
help make IBM the best software company in the world."
     The success of OS/2 is crucial to this ambitious goal. It
is crucial to IBM customers who have committed themselves
to, or are considering,  IBM's LAN technology,  DB2,  or
other  strategies of software inter-operability across
multiple platforms; platforms that include the mainframe,
the AS/400, the RISC 6000,  the x86 PC and eventually the
PowerPC.
     Osborne, Australia's largest PC manufacturer, recently
decided to standardize on IBM PC DOS and OS/2 Warp for
their entire line of PCs. Vobis, Escom, and Comtech in
Germany made similar decisions to pre-load Warp. Some IBM
PC's and systems built by Toshiba and CompuAdd are already
entering the marketplace with Warp installed. This is a
step in the right direction but high visibility will only
be achieved when one enters an electronics or office supply
outlet and sees Warp on the screens of  popular PC's
including IBM's Aptiva.
     Influential  industry writers such as Jerry Pournelle and
Peter Coffee are commenting about the incremental values of
Warp for Windows users. And at some of the favorite IBM
watering holes around Westchester County talk is turning
from competing against Windows to mining what may well be
a mother-lode  of gold    the Windows marketplace.
     The Windows market is large and so, too, is the 32 bit
market.  IBM knows that it must succeed in this market with
OS/2 if it is to become the  best software company in the
world. It will not settle intentionally for Mr. Black's
Evanston niche.
     So how viable is OS/2 in the marketplace? It seems
probable, now, that  Windows 95 will  appear later this
year. Software producers,  equipment manufacturers,
customers, and businesses in the channels, all need to know
how to invest money and resources. The issue is not
technology. It is market share. Marketplace commitment is
tied to  expectations about IBM's ability to deliver
sufficient market share. It is not tied to the quality of
OS/2.
      In the months ahead, InnoVal Report on OS/2 will focus
on this marketplace. With commentary and analysis, we will
examine what IBM is doing correctly. We will also discuss
where IBM and others seem to be missing the mark in this
wide open marketplace. Along the way, we will  direct your
attention to other sources of  valuable information, some
with different points of view.

Recommended Reading

  Peter Coffee in the January 9, 1995 issue of PC Week.

  "Third Time the Charm?" in the January 1995 issue of
  Computer Shopper.

  Edwin Black in the January 1995 issue of OS/2
  Professional.

  Jerry Pournelle in the February 1995 issue of Byte
  Magazine.

  "This MAC Really Does Windows," in the February 13, 1995
  issue of Business Week.

  The advertisement inside the front cover of  the January
  1995 issue of OS/2 Professional. This is as much an
  editorial comment as it is an advertisement.  Read the
  title, the first sentence, and the fine print at the
  bottom.

Perception Problem?

Overheard in the Egghead store in Greenwich, Connecticut:
"I am looking for an Internet program. Does Warp run under
DOS or Windows?"

End of Article