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Table II-1 Verifica tion statistics tor M-class flare forecasts 12 1 January-31 December 1993 Lead n=365 Time (days) Med(f) Med(f-) s(f-x) 0.191 0.153 0.038 0.100 0.050 0.202 0.360 0.350 0.189 0.153 0.036 0.100 0.050 0.203 0.360 0.364 0.185 0.153 0.031 0.100 0.050 0.201 0.360 0.373 Med (f1x=1 Med Med |x=1> Med |x=1> -1x=0 (f1x=1 f1x=0) f1x=0 f1x=0 s(f1 x=1) s(f1 x=0) 0.348 0.163 0.300 0.100 0.186 0.200 0.207 0.187 0.315 0.167 0.275 0.100 0.148 0.175 0.212 0.193 0.287 0.166 0.225 0.100 0.120 0.125 0.221 0.192 M-class flare fo recasts are pmbabilistic torecasts ranging from 0.01to 0.99 Corresponding ob servation s are either -flare or0no M-flare ocurred These summary and perfomanc emeasures include n,numbe of forecasts/obs ervations m the sam ple; T mean forecast -X> mean observation; -f-x>- ...
