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OCR: 0.5 0.45 pf|x=1 0.4 p(flx=0) 0.35 0.3 r 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 Probability Forecast Bin M-class Flare Forecasts All Forecas ters Figure 1I-3 Discrimination diagram for next-day M-class flare forecasts, 1 January-31 Decermber 1993 STUL diagram shows the frequency with which each forecast value WAS used when an event accured (p(fI x=1) and when an event did not cur (p(f1 x=0)). forerasts Deremher TTAL Auan baty forerast occurred