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OCR: Proton Flares/ Quarter 0.03 ME -day) 0.025 ME (2-day) 0.02 ME (3-day} 0.015 0.01 0.005 0.025 MSE 1-day 0.02 0.015 MSE (2-day) 0.01 MSE (3-day} 0.005 r(1- -day) r(2-day) T 0.6 0.5 Not Applicable r (3-day) 0.4 0.1 1/93 2193 3/93 4193 Calendar QuarterlYear Figure I-3. Trend diagrams flare forecasts at three lead tires The overall bias (mear (IOLIA accuracy (mean square error) and linear correlation are plotted for each calendar quarter 1993 The occ urence f flares during each quarter is ind icated at the tap Qf the figure. 3193 Calerdar QuarterlY forpmoton ermr urrence