Time - Man of the Year/Time_Man_of_the_Year_Compact_Publishing_3YX-Disc-1_Compact_Publishing_1993.iso/moy/092192/09219912.000

Text File | 1993-04-08 | 6KB | 118 lines

                                                                                POLITICS, Page 25

Remember Ross?


The avowed noncandidate tantalizes supporters and worries rivals
with hints of an October surprise

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT/WASHINGTON - With reporting by Edwin M.
Reingold/Los Angeles and Richard Woodbury/Dallas


    Looking just like a candidate in search of TV coverage,
Ross Perot turned up in Homestead, Florida, last week to
commiserate with hurricane victims. In Phoenix, Arizona,
meanwhile, Perot supporters held a midnight rally to start the
petition drive that will place his name on the state ballot in
November. Elsewhere, diehard Perotistas, with financial support
from their billionaire hero, are completing work that is almost
certain to give voters in all 50 states and the District of
Columbia the chance to vote for a man who ostensibly abandoned
his campaign for President in July. At Perot's Dallas office,
his aide Sharon Holman says, "Everyone's on hold, waiting."

    Waiting for what? Perot's political headquarters in North
Dallas has been stripped down. Rows of cubicles stand empty, and
the phone bank that once accommodated 100 lines now has only
12. More than 400 calls a day still come in, many from people
who want Perot to compete. While most supporters took Perot at
his word in July, thousands of others, disillusioned with
conventional politics, stayed in a movement that seemed to
promise fresh approaches.

    Perot had no firm strategy when he abruptly fled the race
two months ago. Then, faced with headlines that branded him a
quitter, and with the anger of disappointed loyalists, he
quickly improvised a strange quasi-candidacy. At a cost of
$480,000 a month, he is maintaining 64 field offices in addition
to the Dallas headquarters. They operate as part of a new
advocacy organization, United We Stand, which is also the title
of a book he brought out in August. The slim volume contains the
austere economic plan, including tax increases and spending
cuts, that Perot never announced while he was campaigning. It
currently tops the New York Times paperback best-seller list.

    For states such as California, which require an official
declaration of candidacy to get on the ballot, Perot has sent
the necessary documents. Yet the day before his letter arrived
in Sacramento, Perot told a TV interviewer that the chances he
would actually run were "very remote, not even worth talking
about." His most zealous supporters, however, refuse to take
what Perot now says at face value. Says Orson Swindle, the
former Marine combat pilot who heads United We Stand: "The
Arizona thing is very important. It closes the loop on what Ross
said in February -- that if the American people put him on the
ballot in all 50 states, he would put on a world-class
campaign." In New Mexico, state chairman John Bishop even
contends that Perot has been playing out a "brilliant strategy,"
remaining poised while George Bush and Bill Clinton slash each
other.

    With seven weeks left in the campaign, Perot has no hope
of mounting a serious, full-fledged effort. Still, he obviously
seeks influence. To get it, he must do more than publish policy
recommendations and carp in op-ed articles. Thus Republican and
Democratic strategists are worried about an October surprise.
"Perot enjoys the cat-and-mouse game," says Jim Oberwetter,
Bush's Texas chairman. "I've heard rumors all week -- he'll do
something."

    On Friday Perot stoked the speculation during a C-SPAN
interview. He and his followers, he said, would monitor the
candidates to assess how well they toe the policy lines he has
drawn. If Bush and Clinton both satisfy him -- an unlikely
prospect -- Perot would stand down. If only one does, he might
endorse that candidate. If they both fail his test, he implied,
he might heed the calls from remaining fans to compete.

    One scenario envisages a condensed guerrilla campaign,
waged by TV commercials and appearances on the talk-show circuit
that he exploited effectively earlier this year. Even doing
nothing, Perot will probably draw 3% to 4% of the popular vote
from the none-of-the-above bloc. A few weeks of campaigning
could easily double that, possibly affecting the outcome in key
states. That prospect complicates planning by the Bush and
Clinton camps, both of which are trying to analyze Perot's
support. In California, Clinton's seemingly comfortable lead
could be threatened. Bush could be the victim in Texas, which
is critical to the President's re-election. That's why the
G.O.P. now plans an expensive direct-mail appeal to more than
200,000 Perot supporters in Texas. The Republicans hope to
persuade them that Bush is closer to their ideal than Clinton
is.

    In fact, Perot's ideas on taxes and some related issues
have more in common with the Democrat's plan than with the
President's. Further, Perot's personal dislike of Bush was one
of the motives for his initial plunge into politics. When Perot
announced that he was out of the race, Clinton benefited
initially. But recent polls indicate that many of the voters now
uncommitted are Republicans who favored Perot last spring. If
they drift toward Bush, as some analysts believe probable, Perot
could attempt to court them with a targeted effort in the
Southwest and Rocky Mountain states.

    Whatever his strategy during the end game, Perot seems to
be enjoying his mischievous role. He has spent about $13
million of his own money on his political movement this year.
For that kind of cash, he apparently feels entitled to at least
some influence.