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U.S. SUPREME COURT, Page 28Abortion
The Issue Bush Hopes Will Go Away
But Clinton and Perot will try their best to lure pro-choice
voters to their side
By LAURENCE I. BARRETT/WASHINGTON
Though George Bush privately viewed last week's Supreme
Court decision on abortion as a political reprieve, his sense
of relief will be temporary. The ruling that merely dented the
1973 Roe v. Wade doctrine instead of demolishing it left the
President squirming on a barbed-wire fence. His opponents will
do all they can to keep him there.
True, the damage would have been more immediate if Roe v.
Wade had been overturned, the outcome Bush nominally seeks.
That would have outraged pro-choice voters, many of whom
supported Bush in 1988 despite his desire to outlaw abortion in
most cases. The ardent pro-life faction, an important part of
Bush's core constituency, is also disgruntled. It complains that
a court controlled by Reagan-Bush appointees has not done away
with Roe. Caught between the two groups, Bush had to speak
softly. Yes, he approved that part of the court's ruling that
allows states to impose new restrictions on abortion. No, he
would not base his next court selection on the nominee's
abortion views, "because that would be a litmus test . . . and
I don't want that." Yet the 1988 G.O.P. platform promised that
standard, and the 1992 version will probably do the same.
What Bush really wants is for the dispute to disappear.
"Anything that raises the abortion issue's profile," says an
adviser, "is a problem for us." With Congress poised to pass an
abortion-rights bill called the Freedom of Choice Act, that
profile will remain high. The vulnerability, which Bill Clinton
tried to exploit last week and which also could help Ross Perot,
springs from the issue's new political math. When Roe v. Wade
seemed to guarantee access to abortion, the pro-life side
mustered most of the electoral passion. Though a minority in the
country for decades, those adamantly opposed to abortion tended
to base their ballot on that one issue more often than
pro-choice partisans. Even then, abortion had slight impact on
presidential races because other national concerns outweighed
it.
The legal assault on abortion rights in the Reagan-Bush
years has changed that equation. Since 1989, Time/CNN polls have
indicated that one-third of Americans would vote against
antiabortion politicians "regardless of the candidate's position
on other issues.'' But less than a quarter of the electorate
would vote against a proabortion-rights candidate solely because
of that stance. Some of Bush's advisers dismiss these figures
as misleading. His pollster, Fred Steeper, argues that nearly
all voters who will cast their ballots only on the abortion
issue made up their minds long ago. In this group, the liberals'
edge amounts "only to a percentage point or two," Steeper says.
But in a three-way race, every point is critical. Furthermore,
Perot's presence gives moderates and independents a refuge short
of voting Democratic.
Bush, a moderate on abortion before he embraced the Reagan
philosophy 12 years ago, cannot switch back. Another reversal
would shatter his support among right-wing voters crucial to his
re-election. But he needs centrists like Carol Daniels, 56, a
former schoolteacher from Captiva, Fla., who says she was "born
a Republican and have been a Republican all my life." Daniels
hates being a single-issue voter, but she hates Bush's abortion
stand even more. "I'll not vote for him," she says firmly.
Congresswoman Susan Molinari, a New York City Republican
with a heavily Catholic constituency, notes that even older
voters are increasingly militant on the pro-choice side. Though
Molinari's father, who held her House seat for 10 years, was
pro-life, like a few other Republicans, she plans to vote for
the Freedom of Choice Act, which would restore by legislative
means the full intent of Roe v. Wade. It will not become law
this year because its proponents cannot get the two-thirds
majority needed to override Bush's veto. But the fight over it
will keep abortion in the headlines.
Early in the campaign, Clinton did not plan to stress
abortion or other emotional issues such as school prayer. He
wanted to avoid the appearance of catering to "special
interests," including feminists. But now Clinton must scrape for
every faction, large or small. As the only one of the three
candidates favoring the pending bill and promising to appoint
pro-choice judges to the Supreme Court, Clinton hopes to stand
apart from his rivals.
Perot is more cautious. Though he contends that "it's the
woman's choice," his disparagement of those who breed "like
rabbits" mollifies some traditionalists for whom abortion equals
moral decay. But his opposition to government interference in
women's lives appeases some moderate pro-choice partisans. In
a debate that polarizes opinion into extremes, Perot, the
political apprentice, is bidding for the serene middle ground
where most voters are found. That is another reason Bush wishes
Perot -- and the abortion issue -- would just go away.