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1992-09-10
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COVER STORIES, Page 54RIO: SUMMIT TO SAVE THE EARTHPopulation: The Uninvited Guest
By EUGENE LINDEN
Imagine an Earth Summit at which the delegates were
magically insulated from nationalist, religious and cultural
pressures and then told to pick one issue that had the most
impact on the quality of the environment and the cause of
sustainable development. There is little doubt what this dream
conference would focus on: population. By itself, controlled
population growth will not solve the world's problems, but if
human numbers and consumption continue to rise unabated, there
is little hope for the other creatures with whom we share the
earth and a high probability of catastrophe for humanity itself.
After years of preparation, however, the negotiators preparing
the main documents for Rio have relegated the issue to a few
delicately worded phrases. In the draft of the Rio Declaration,
the sole mention of population is a deliberately ambiguous
reference to "appropriate demographic policies."
The problem is that the negotiators cannot operate in a
world divorced from dogmas. In the case of discussions about
birth control, the pressures came from the Vatican and
fundamentalist Muslims. Ironically, according to summit
officials, feminists led by former U.S. Congresswoman Bella
Abzug may have unintentionally aided the forces aligned against
family planning by pushing aggressively for a more liberal
women's reproductive-rights agenda than the conservative
cultures in the developing world could accept.
Unfortunately, the summit's capitulation on the population
question will probably nullify whatever progress the conference
makes on other issues. The United Nations Population Fund has
just released new forecasts for population growth, which have
been raised sharply. In 1980 the agency projected that the
world's population, now at 5.4 billion, would stabilize at 10
billion people roughly 100 years from now, but the new estimates
show it surpassing 11.6 billion by the year 2150.
And that prediction may be optimistic, based on the
assumption that developing nations can reduce their birthrate
from 3.8 children per mother to 3.3 by the year 2000. If that
reduced birthrate is not reached until 2010, the population will
hit 12.5 billion by the middle of the next century -- unless
mass starvation, disease or war curbs the numbers. Almost all
these people would live in developing countries, and it is
difficult to imagine how any agreement coming out of Rio could
offset the negative impact of this tide of humanity.
"We already have a full-occupancy planet," says Noel
Brown, North American director of the U.N. Environment Program.
Today 80% of deforestation results from population growth. If
the numbers keep rising until 2050, the U.N. estimates, an
additional 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq. mi.) of land will
have to be turned over to farming, roads and urban uses. This
is almost equivalent to the total size of protected natural
areas on earth today. Most good agricultural land is already
under plow, and each year desertification, improper irrigation
and overuse take millions of acres out of production. Farms may
increase in productivity, but it will be much harder to match
the gains of the past, and whether agricultural output can keep
pace with population is an open question.
Seafood will not be limitless either. Some scientists
estimate that rising demand will exceed what the oceans can
produce by 20% in as little as 20 years. One sign of how badly
the seas have been overfished is that populations of bluefin
tuna have declined 94% since 1970.
The world has already overshot the saturation point in its
ability to process many wastes. For instance, a doubling of
human population would be likely to boost the concentrations of
nitrates in rivers 55%. Nitrates, which get into the water from
air pollution and fertilizer runoff, are among the most
difficult contaminants to remove. The chemicals cause human
diseases and promote water conditions that kill fish and other
aquatic life.
Earth Summit enthusiasts argue that efforts to raise
incomes and educational levels for the poor will have the side
effect of lowering population growth. In the fastest-growing
countries, however, population increases prevent development by
sopping up investment capital that might otherwise improve
lives. If the summit is to be more than a bureaucratic sideshow
unrelated to the forces threatening the globe, it will have to
do more than offer camouflaged references to the population
explosion.