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Time - Man of the Year
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1992-09-10
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THE WEEK, Page 25HEALTH & SCIENCEAre Mammograms Bad For Your Health?
A report that they raise cancer risks for some women is premature
Taken at face value, the leaks describing a major medical
study last week were profoundly disturbing. It's already known
that about 1 in 9 American women will develop breast cancer
during her life. Now, said the report, it turns out that women
ages 40 to 49 who get routine mammograms to detect early breast
cancer are actually more likely to die from the disease than
those who avoid the tests. Most experts currently believe it's
the other way around, and many doctors have long urged women in
that age group to have a mammogram every year or two. If the
evidence suddenly pointed the other way, standard medical advice
would have to change immediately, public service announcements
would have to be yanked and the estimated 75% of American women
ages 40 and older who have had the procedure would have every
reason to panic -- and to get angry at the bad advice they've
been given.
But for now, the panic is premature. Despite the early
alarms, it turns out that the study says no such thing. In fact,
it can't, since the authors haven't finished analyzing the raw
data yet. As everyone from pollsters to physicists know, raw
numbers can be misleading until they have been subjected to
statistical analysis. Says Dr. Anthony Miller, the University of
Toronto researcher: "Anyone who says the statistics lead to such
a conclusion at this point is wrong."
What the study does say, according to Miller, is that
mammography has no demonstrable benefit for women in that age
range, though it does for older women. While those who get
mammograms are no more likely to die from breast cancer than
their untested counterparts, they are evidently no safer either.
That in itself is not unprecedented: earlier studies have
pointed to the same conclusion. But it is controversial. No one
is sure why it should be true, and for now, the medical
establishment is not backing off its recommendation that women
between 40 and 49 go ahead and get tested.