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1992-10-19
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BUSINESS, Page 49Raising High the Roof Beams
The housing sector, which accounts for one-fifth of U.S.
industrial output, was one of the first industries to collapse
under the weight of the recession. Last year, following the
building boom of the go-go 1980s, housing suffered its worst
decline since World War II: new home starts plunged 15%, to 1
million units. But with falling interest rates and the lure of
tax credits enticing consumers back into the market, the
industry is showing surprising signs of rebirth.
As of February, sales of existing homes were running at an
annual rate of 1.3 million units, up 9.3% in February and more
than 100,000 units ahead of analysts' predictions for 1992. New
housing starts, spurred by an unseasonably warm winter, are
proceeding at a 1.3 million-unit annual pace, up 9.6% compared
with last year and above the 1.1 million projected by analysts.
Housing experts attribute the upsurge largely to a sharp
drop in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which started plummeting
last summer and dipped to an 8.43% monthly average in January,
their lowest level in 18 years. The drop touched off a wave of
refinancing, as 1.6 million homeowners last year took advantage
of lower interest to roll over their mortgages. Although rates
inched up slightly in February, another 3 million homeowners --
an all-time record -- are expected to refinance this year.
But most of the activity has been generated by home
purchases. Prospective buyers accounted for more than two-thirds
of all mortgage applications in March, compared with 27% in
February. "There's a lot of pent-up demand out there," says Hugh
Kelly, director of economic research at the New York City real
estate firm Landauer Associates.
Demand was highest in the West, where home sales soared
18%. Most of this action, though, is taking place outside
California, whose economy has been battered by a retreating
defense industry. In the Northeast, housing sales rose only 2%,
a sluggish performance due partly to the fact that home prices
are up 2% to $143,000, second only to those in California. Sales
in the South increased 9%. In the Midwest housing sales also
jumped 9%, and new home construction climbed 39%. But Chicago
Realtor Dempsey Travis says a sustained recovery will need more
than "one-shot remedies" like the $5,000 tax credit President
Bush has proposed for first-time home buyers. "We have to
stimulate the underlying root of demand: job creation."