Time - Man of the Year/Time_Man_of_the_Year_Compact_Publishing_3YX-Disc-1_Compact_Publishing_1993.iso/moy/011392/0113330.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 8KB | 165 lines

                                                                                ENVIRONMENT, Page 48

Breezing into the Future


How can America curb its dangerous dependence on scarce, nasty
fossil fuels? The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind.

By DICK THOMPSON/WASHINGTON


    A decade ago, windmills promised to be a clean, reliable
source of power that could help wean America from its dependence
on dirty fuels and foreign oil. The idea of harnessing an
energy supply that was free as the breeze generated enough
megawatts of excitement to light up an entire new industry.
Spurred by generous government tax incentives, investors poured
more than $2.5 billion into U.S. wind projects during the early
1980s.

    But enthusiasm was not enough to propel the dream into
reality. "Wind developed a reputation for not working, and it
had the stigma of a tax scam," says Robert Thresher, the
wind-program manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
in Golden, Colo. Eventually the problems caused power companies
to back away. And by 1985, when the tax credits expired, the
remaining wind towers began looking more and more like monuments
to a lost cause.

    Now, however, there's new energy in the wind. Engineers
have used advanced technology to make wind turbines that are
far more efficient and cost effective than those of yesteryear.
Says J. Michael Davis, chief of renewable-energy programs at the
U.S. Department of Energy: "These machines are real and
reliable." Today's models are capable of meeting 10% of
America's energy demand, and within 30 years, newer versions
could provide for a quarter of the nation's power needs. Such
figures have re-energized the manufacturers of wind-power
equipment and attracted the interest of foreign competitors.
Utilities are conducting wind surveys and starting pilot
projects. And a new breed of wildcatter is scurrying to buy up
wind rights -- licenses to erect what may be the oil wells of
tomorrow.

    For years, the wind industry's goal has been to produce
power at rates similar to oil's: roughly a nickel for a
kilowatt. Machines now operating in California can produce
energy at 7 cents per kW. In areas of consistent high winds, the
next generation, currently being deployed, will bring that cost
down to 5 cents by 1995, and more advanced designs are likely
to shave off another penny by the year 2000. While many locales
do not have enough wind to use the technology, enhancements
already in the works will expand by a factor of 20 the area of
land that can generate wind power profitably, according to
experts at the National Renewable Energy Lab.

    Wind's success says something about a dicey political
issue: Should government tamper with free enterprise to nurture
a new technology? The answer for renewable energy sources is
definitely yes. Had manufacturers and utilities not received
state and federal assistance early on, the future of wind power
would now be controlled by either Japan or Europe; both have
consistently funded wind research. Today American technology
dominates the field.

    In a sense, wind power has come full circle. In the early
1900s, most of the electricity on U.S. farms was provided by
windmills. Those were replaced during the 1930s when the Rural
Electrification Administration wired the countryside. But the
oil embargoes and environmental concerns of the '70s prodded
politicians to encourage the investigation of alternative energy
sources. States began requiring their utilities to spend between
1% and 2% of profits on research, and the federal government
added its generous tax credits for investments in renewables.

    Unfortunately, the credits were for investment, not
performance. Consequently, many wind-power machines seemed to
be designed on an accountant's calculator to capture more
deductions than breezes. Some towers were planted in fields of
feeble winds. Others broke down with frustrating regularity. But
a few companies persisted, and California in particular became
the nursery for advanced technology. The state's hot central
valleys are linked to the cool ocean by a series of gorges and
valleys along the coast that act like wind tunnels. It was in
these natural labs that engineers began testing new designs.

    The failures of the 1980s showed the researchers that they
knew almost nothing about building machines that could
withstand and harness the turbulence of wind. Early models used
blades of a type originally designed for helicopters. Since wind
pressure could vary considerably from one end of the blade to
the other, the rotor would wobble wildly and eventually break
off. Sudden gusts of wind could overpower the machine and burn
out its energy-converting turbine. Some engineers tried solving
the problems by building heavier machines, but that simply made
them more expensive.

    After much trial and error, researchers modified the
contours of the blades; some, for instance, are thicker in the
middle in order to provide more stability. Engineers put
electronic sensors atop the towers that could constantly monitor
wind direction and turn the machine to correct for changes. The
sensors do not respond to every fluctuation, but when a computer
calculates a sustained 15 degrees shift, it signals for a turn
into the wind. The leading American manufacturer, U.S. Wind
power of Livermore, Calif., has built machines with electronic
components that act as a giant surge protector, keeping sudden
bursts of energy produced by gusts from overpowering the
turbine.

    Researchers also found that less than ideal placement of
a windmill can have a major impact: missing 10% of the wind can
reduce power 30%. Moreover, the arrangement of turbines within
a wind "farm" is important because the wake produced by one
windmill affects those around it. Computers are being used to
simulate varied terrain and calculate how to produce the most
energy.

    The advances are slowly changing the way utilities
evaluate the technology. "We look at it as a real competitive
option," says Carl Weinberg, director of research for San
Francisco-based Pacific Gas and Electric. Outside California,
however, wind power still carries the burden of past failures.
Even though a government survey found that 10 Midwestern states
could more than meet all their electrical power needs from wind,
no major wind projects are planned in the region for 1992.

    But growing public concern over pollution from burning
fossil fuels will increase the pressure for renewable energy.
Several states are starting to require utilities to factor the
cost of environmental damage into the cost of power production.
In California, where the process of calculating environmental
cost is just beginning, wind power may be assigned a price 15%
lower than that for energy from traditional sources.

    Seven different propos als are before Congress to provide
incentives for new wind-turbine purchases. Surprisingly, the
energy industry itself is divided on the value of such
incentives. Turbine manufacturers believe that wind should prove
itself competitive without further special assistance. But
utilities would like a tax credit to make investment more
attractive.

    Additional technological advances now on the drawing board
are likely to make wind power even more appealing. Engineers
plan to boost the towers in some areas higher than they are at
present so that the machines can escape ground turbulence and
tap more consistent winds. Lighter materials could reduce the
cost of building the towers. And researchers are looking into
ways to store excess energy produced during windy periods so
that it could be banked for use on calmer days or during peak
energy demand.

    If wind power does not fulfill its promise as a major
energy source by the end of the century, it will not be a
failure of technology. It will be a failure of vision on the
part of society to make the necessary commitment.