Time - Man of the Year/Time_Man_of_the_Year_Compact_Publishing_3YX-Disc-1_Compact_Publishing_1993.iso/moy/011392/0113004.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 6KB | 121 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 28

ALGERIA

An Alarming No Vote


The fundamentalists' big gain is more a protest against socialist
rule than a mandate for an Islamic republic

By JILL SMOLOWE -- Reported by J.F.O. McAllister/Washington and
Farah Nayeri/Paris


    Given the warning flares that went up as far back as June
1990, when the Islamic Salvation Front coasted to easy victory
in Algeria's municipal races, expectations were high that
fundamentalists would score well in the country's first free
parliamentary election. Even so, shock waves rattled both the
Arab and Western worlds last week, when Islamists walked away
with almost half the national vote, despite competition from 40
other political parties. In the first round of balloting,
fundamentalists secured 188 of 206 seats and were poised to win
enough of the 224 remaining seats in a runoff election on Jan.
16 to obtain a sizable parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the
National Liberation Front, which has ruled Algeria with an
autocratic hand since independence in 1962, emerged with a
humiliating 15 seats.

    The scope of the fundamentalist mandate immediately gave
rise to doomsday visions of an Algeria cloaked in black robes
and veils, a Koran clutched in one hand, the other the clenched
fist of religious fanaticism. But there was actually little to
suggest that the north African country was about to return to
the Middle Ages any time soon. Cool-headed analysts mostly
regarded the vote as less an embrace of fundamentalism than a
sharp renunciation of the socialist National Liberation Front,
which has run the country's economy into the ground through
corruption, mismanagement, nepotism and sloth.

    Still, the Islamists' public embrace of Koranic law raised
fears that the chilling penal law, known as Shari`a, might be
enforced, giving rise to such practices as flagellations,
stonings and limb amputations. Moreover, Islamic leaders have
repeatedly stated that mothers should attend to their children,
and therefore should not hold a job outside the home. The
fundamentalists also champion segregation of the sexes in both
the workplace and schools.

    If all of this sounds eerily like Iran, a mix of
historical, political and cultural factors set Algeria's
experience apart. Unlike the popular uprising that swept the
Shah from power in 1979, Algeria's fundamentalists are ascending
to legislative power by the say-so of voters who have given
indications that they are as little interested in the tyranny
of Islamists as they are in the tyranny of corrupt socialists.

    Moreover, Algeria's political convulsion is less like
Iran's than like Jordan's: in 1989 King Hussein, similarly beset
by a disintegrating economy, permitted open parliamentary
elections that resulted in the seating of a large fundamentalist
block. Nonetheless, Jordan's ties to the West and its moderate
course remain largely intact.

    In Algeria last week, the Islamic tide met with strong
resistance. In the capital, 300,000 people turned out shouting,
"No to fundamentalism!" Apparently emboldened by the protests,
the government announced that it was investigating first-round
irregularities in 145 contests that could deprive the Islamic
Front of many of its seats.

    Unless the fundamentalists win big next week, they will
not enjoy a free hand in any case. President Chadli Bendjedid
not only controls the army and police force but also wields the
constitutional authority to dissolve parliament and declare a
state of emergency. Should the fundamentalists achieve a
two-thirds majority, they will have enough votes to force
constitutional changes and override presidential vetoes. Jean
Leca, a leading French expert on Algeria, warns that in such an
event, strict social control and dictatorship are likely to
follow. Other analysts predict that the military, which is
committed to a modernizing, secular state, will thwart such
ambitions.

    A religious dictatorship would not sit well even among
Algeria's fundamentalists, mostly Sunnis who do not exalt
clerics to the same degree that Iran's Shi`ites do today. "The
concept of theocracy is not something which has roots in Sunni
society," says Professor Mary-Jane Deeb of American University's
School of International Service in Washington. Algeria's former
colonial ties to France also give the country a Western
complexion that cannot be easily erased. Most Algerians speak
French, many are exposed to European culture through French
television and have relatives among their millions of
compatriots now living in Europe.

    All of this does little to quell the unease of Arab,
African and European onlookers. Neighboring Tunisia and Morocco
feel particularly threatened by the Islamic vote. Across the
Mediterranean, Spain, Italy and France are girding for waves of
fleeing Algerians to wash up on their shores. And throughout the
Arab world, there are fears that such fundamentalist successes
will inspire Islamic radicals at home.

    Nevertheless, Algeria's future course will hinge more on
the economy's performance than the zeal of the newly seated
fundamentalists. In 1991 inflation ran at a rate of 100%, and
almost a quarter of the labor force is now out of work. Oil and
gas revenues will decline if the fundamentalists scare off
Algeria's European clients. Bendjedid recently implemented
financial reforms aimed at wooing foreign funds. If democracy
continues to flower, investment will be forthcoming, opening up
new jobs and industries. But if daily life does not improve for
the country's 26 million residents, Algerians may mistake
fundamentalism for a panacea and sign on to a far vaguer -- but
undoubtedly more radical -- agenda.