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Cancer - Principles & Practice of Oncology
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CHAP41
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F2_6.CAP
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1999-06-07
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FIGURE 41.2-6. Observed and predicted 10-year mortality based on a
mathematical model derived from tumor thickness. [ref: 117] The
mathematical model is 9(T) = 1 - 0.966.e - 0.2016T. The solid line
represents the 10-year mortality predicted by the model; the closed
circles represent the actual observed mortality for 2627 patients. The
accuracy of the model was confirmed by applying it to 747 AJCC stage I
and II melanoma patients from the World Health Organization Melanoma
Group (data not used in the derivation of the model). The Xs indicate
mortality for these patients. The linear nature of the curve
demonstrates that there are no natural breakpoints, but a continuous
correlation of survival with tumor thickness. (Balch CM, Soong S-J,
Shaw HM, et al. An analysis of prognostic factors in 4,000 patients
with cutaneous melanoma. In: Balch CM, Milton GW, eds. Cutaneous
melanoma: clinical management and treatment results worldwide.
Philadelphia: JB Lippincott, 1985:321)