GLOBAL FOOD STOCKS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW MINIMUM REQUIRED FOR WORLD FOOD SECURITY, FAO DIRECTOR-GENERAL SAYS
Addressing FAO Governing Council, Director-General Also Proposes Convening World Food Summit Next Year
ROME, 5 June 1995 (FAO) -- The Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Jacques Diouf, told its Governing Council today that the global food and agriculture situation requires vigilance, with food shortages in a number of countries and global stocks expected to fall below the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security. The FAO Council convened today for its two-week 108th Session at FAO Headquarters in Rome.
In remarks to the opening session, Dr. Diouf announced that the FAO's latest forecast for world cereal production in 1995 stands at 1.933 billion tons, a decline of about 20 million tons, or 1 per cent compared with last year. That level of production would not be sufficient to meet expected consumption needs and carry-over stocks of cereals were projected to be reduced to some 270 million tons at the end of the crop year's closing in 1996. That would be 30 million tons, or 10 percent below their opening level, he said, adding that the supply situation was particularly tight for wheat with extremely low stocks forecast to be held by the major exporters and prices rising. Based on the latest forecast, the FAO expects that aggregate world cereal stocks could fall substantially below the range considered the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security.
A report prepared for the two-week session notes that total food aid in cereals likely to be provided from July 1994 to this June stands at 9.8 million tons, down from the 13.3 million tons delivered the previous year. That is the lowest level in more than a decade, the report says.
Africa is still the continent most affected by local food shortages. According to the FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System, 15 sub-Saharan African countries are facing shortfalls in food supplies in the current marketing year requiring exceptional or emergency assistance. In the Horn of Africa, despite an overall improvement in the food supply situation, emergency food assistance will continue to be needed for millions of people affected by past or current civil strife as well as by adverse weather. A massive drop in cereal output is forecast in southern Africa following widespread drought. Fortunately, the emergency in the sub-region is nowhere close to that of three years ago thanks to large stocks held by the traditional main exporting countries in the sub-region, particularly South Africa and Zimbabwe. However, subregion's cereal stocks will be virtually depleted in the current year causing serious concern. The outcome of the 1996 harvest will be crucial for food security there. A poor harvest that year could spell a disaster for millions of people in southern Africa.
The following countries in Africa are facing severe food supply shortfalls: Angola, Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Liberia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Zaire and northern and north-eastern parts of Uganda.
In the Near East, the food supply situation remains serious in Iraq and Afghanistan, while in the Far East food shortages requiring exceptional or emergency assistance are reported in Cambodia, Mongolia and Nepal.
The food situation in Europe was reported to be deteriorating in the besieged regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of the renewed fighting and difficulties of delivering food aid. Within the countries of the former Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Tajikistan were reportedly facing food shortages requiring emergency or exceptional assistance.
The FAO Director-General also told the Council that he intends to submit formally to the FAO's governing conference his proposal to convene a world food summit in November 1996. A ministerial meeting planned for 13 to 15 November would set the stage for the heads of State and government meeting on 16 and 17 November. He said the proposed summit would be preceded on 11 and 12 November by a meeting of high-level officials. Dr. Diouf also expressed his gratitude to the Italian Government for its willingness to host the summit and help with its organization and success.
The summit is being proposed with the aim of renewing the commitment of world leaders at the highest level to the eradication of hunger and malnutrition and the achievement of food security for all, through the adoption of concerted policies and actions at global, regional and national level.
Dr. Diouf reassured Member Nations that every possible means would be taken to minimize the cost of the proposed summit. With that in mind, a Ministerial meeting in Quebec, Canada, which is scheduled from 14 to 16 October to celebrate the FAO's fiftieth anniversary, would represent a significant milestone in the preparation for the summit. He said the meeting, which would bring together ministers of agriculture and ministers in charge of development and cooperation, would address the crucial issue of "investment to achieve food for all."
Dr. Diouf told the Council that he is proposing a no-growth budget for the 1996-1997 biennium, adjusted to reflect cost increases. He said the proposed budget of $704.2 million "was not an easy decision to reach when this key specialized agency of the United Nations system is witnessing still pervasive malnutrition in many parts of the world, and our planet is facing the prospect of an additional 3 billion people to feed within one generation from now." The budget for the 1994-1995 biennium, also a no- growth one, was $673.1 million.
