The last of the decade's major UN conferences was Habitat II (formally known as the UN Conference on Human Settlements), which convened in Istanbul in June 1996. It would be difficult to think of a more urgent, and largely forgotten, issue on the global agenda than urbanization-or one so closely tied to population factors. Almost half of the world population-2.6 billion people-live in cities, and projections suggest that the figure will climb to two-thirds by the year 2025. Cities are currently growing by a million people each week, exacerbating a long list of urban problems in both the developed and developing world, such as shortages of adequate housing, lack of basic services, deteriorating infrastructure, pollution, and congestion (UNFPA, State of World Population 1996).
Rapid urbanization and the appearance of "mega-cities" in the late 20th century is without historical precedence. In 1950, only one city in the world, New York, had a population of more than ten million people. In 1990, twelve cities topped that level. It is now projected that in twenty years, twenty-seven cities will exceed ten million people-twenty-three of which will be in the developing world (ibid.). The investments in housing, water and sanitation, transportation, public health, and education needed to support rapidly growing urban populations continue to strain economics and governance. The high number of young people in developing-country cities puts additional pressure on housing and social services and necessitates the creation of new jobs in situations where unemployment and underemployment are frequently widespread.
The growth in urban populations is primarily a result of the increase in total world population-about a billion people every eleven years. Over ninety-five percent of future population growth will occur in developing countries, and almost three-quarters of that increase will be in cities and towns (ICPD News, 2/96). Future population increases are unavoidable, but the large difference between the UN's high and low projections-a difference of 720 million people over the next 20 years-has important implications for the goal of sustainable urban settlements (UNFPA, State of World Population 1996).
The preparatory meetings for Habitat II, however, produced a draft document that-by the standards of population experts-gave inadequate attention to the role of demographic factors in problems associated with rapid urbanization (The Habitat Agenda [unedited draft], 3/4/96). Among the important issues related to the dynamics of urban growth not addressed by the document were the potential impact on cities of alternative scenarios for future population growth; the role of high fertility rates in cities as well as migration fueled by even higher fertility rates among rural populations; the young age structure of urban populations in developing countries; the emergence of mega-cities; and the social and economic implications of rural to urban migration. During the Habitat II preparatory process, UNFPA had sponsored two scientific symposiums (one in cooperation with Habitat) to bring the issues of population, internal migration, and urbanization into better focus (ICPD news, 2/96).
From A Global Agenda: Issues Before the 51st General Assembly of the United Nations, copyright 1996 by the United Nations Association of the United States of America. Published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
