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Text File  |  1988-11-18  |  6KB  |  85 lines
  1. SESC Interim Sunspot Cycle Forecast for Cycle 22 - dated 7/20/87
  2. -l-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -l-
  3.  l                     Disclaimer                     l
  4.  l  There are no clearly superior methods of predict- l
  5.  l  ing the size of sunspot cycles years before maxi- l
  6.  l  mum.  However, the method used here has done as   l
  7.  l  well as any other method.  The numbers graphed    l
  8.  l  and tabulated here should be regarded as general  l
  9.  l  guidance, and not as exact predictions.           l
  10. -l-  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -l-
  11.  
  12. The predictions are based on the assumption that sunspot
  13. minimum occurred in September 1986.  The prediction of
  14. maximum value of Sunspot Cycle 22 is based on the Ohl-
  15. method (as modified by Sargent in 1978).  The profile is
  16. derived from the last six even-numbered sunspot cycles.
  17. In the vicinity of maximum, the 95 percent confidence
  18. limits are approximately plus or minus 40 points.  The 
  19. technique would have predicted (or did predict) the max
  20. imum value of the last 4 sunspot cycles within 7 percent.
  21.  
  22. The values charted and tabulated are predicted smoothed
  23. monthly mean sunspot numbers for the designated months.
  24.  
  25. Sunspot Numbers                            Predicted Maximum 118.6              
  26.  l        !           !           !           !           !           !
  27. -l-120 -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  ***-  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -
  28.  l        !           !          ************ !**   *******           !
  29.  l                             **            **            *
  30.  l        !           !      **   !           !           ! **        !
  31. -l-100 -  +  -  -  -  +  -  *  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -***  -  +  -  -
  32.  l        !           !   **      !           !           !      ***  !
  33.  l                      **                                          **         
  34.  l        !           !*          !           !           !           **
  35. -l- 80 -  +  -  -  - **  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  + **  -
  36.  l        !        ** !           !           !           !           !   ***
  37.  l                *                                                         
  38.  l        !      *    !           !           !           !           !
  39. -l- 60 -  +  -  *  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -
  40.  l        !    *      !           !           !           !           !
  41.  l           **                         SESC Interim Forecast for 
  42.  l        ! *         !           !        SUNSPOT CYCLE 22           !
  43. -l- 40 -  ** -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -
  44.  l      **            !           !           !           !           !
  45.  l    **                                                                     
  46.  l   *    !           !           !           !           !           !
  47. -l- 20 -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -  -  +  -  -
  48.  l        !           !           !           !           !           !
  49.  l                                                                          
  50.  l        !           !           !           !           !           !
  51. -l--------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------
  52.          1/88        1/89        1/90        1/91        1/92        1/93
  53.                                    Month/Year
  54.  
  55.  
  56. Month    SSN       Month    SSN       Month    SSN       Month    SSN
  57.  
  58.  1/87    16.3       1/89    81.4       1/91   111.8       1/93    85.5
  59.  2/87    17.3       2/89    84.9       2/91   112.8       2/93    82.9
  60.  3/87    18.6       3/89    88.1       3/91   115.3       3/93    80.5
  61.  4/87    19.9       4/89    91.2       4/91   118.0       4/93    78.5
  62.  5/87    21.5       5/89    94.2       5/91   118.6 *     5/93    76.9
  63.  6/87    23.0       6/89    97.3       6/91   118.0       6/93    75.5
  64.  7/87    24.4       7/89   100.3       7/91   117.3       7/93    74.2
  65.  8/87    26.3       8/89   102.9       8/91   116.1       8/93    72.5
  66.  9/87    28.5       9/89   105.2       9/91   114.2       9/93    69.7
  67. 10/87    30.4      10/89   107.7      10/91   113.0      10/93    67.4
  68. 11/87    32.6      11/89   110.7      11/91   112.7      11/93    66.8
  69. 12/87    35.9      12/89   113.5      12/91   113.3      12/93    66.2
  70.  
  71.  1/88    39.5       1/90   114.6       1/92   112.8       1/94    65.5
  72.  2/88    42.0       2/90   115.4       2/92   110.4       2/94    64.5
  73.  3/88    44.6       3/90   115.5       3/92   107.1       3/94    63.3
  74.  4/88    47.8       4/90   114.8       4/92   103.7       4/94    61.8
  75.  5/88    51.1       5/90   114.8       5/92   101.5       5/94    59.4
  76.  6/88    55.1       6/90   114.4       6/92   100.2       6/94    56.5
  77.  7/88    59.8       7/90   113.9       7/92    98.7       7/94    53.5
  78.  8/88    64.3       8/89   113.9       8/92    97.3       8/94    51.2
  79.  9/88    68.6       9/90   114.3       9/92    96.4       9/94    49.9
  80. 10/88    72.6      10/90   114.8      10/92    94.9      10/94    48.6
  81. 11/88    75.7      11/90   114.3      11/92    91.8      11/94    46.8
  82. 12/99    77.9      12/90   112.4      12/92    88.6      12/94    44.7
  83.  
  84. * denotes maximum
  85.